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n=100 · Simcage Pro
100-sim board
UFC Vegas 121 desk. Numbers are model output, not a ticket we place. Archived desk. Read-only.
Betting styles
model angle, not a ticket we place.
Safe
No safe parlay on this card.
Aggressive
- Hernandez · DEC. model angle, not a ticket we place.
- Osmanli · SUB. model angle, not a ticket we place.
- Brener · KO/TKO. model angle, not a ticket we place.
- Simon · DEC. model angle, not a ticket we place.
Simcage Pro · n=100
PASS60%
Rosas
40%
Barcelos
PASS — no clear angle in the 100.
7%
KO/TKO
30%
SUB
63%
DEC
No ticket — books Rosas −186 / Barcelos +150, not our ticket
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 63%
PATH TO VICTORY — ROSAS • TD avg 6.10 / 15 (ufcstats) — volume into Barcelos TD def 87%, not a one-shot • Age 21 vs 39 in a scheduled 5-rounder — fade is an R4–R5 input • Last-5 is DEC Font, DEC Morales, DEC Aoriqileng after control (Font fight 16 TD) • Sub avg 0.9 + SUB R2 Turcios is the tap path if a takedown sticks • Sims favored wrestling at a measured pace (1.34 sig. str./min, 6.1 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — BARCELOS • SLpM 4.65 vs Rosas 1.34 (ufcstats) if it stays standing • TD def 87% (ufcstats) — stuff the first shot and the wrestle-to-decision script dies • Last-5: DEC Jackson (6 TD, 2 sub att), DEC Simon, DEC Garbrandt, DEC Talbott • Even 67" reach. Open minutes are his, not a KO script — last-5 has one SUB, zero KO • Sims favored a mix of striking and wrestling at a higher pace (4.65 sig. str./min, 2.51 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 63 of 100 ended DEC; 7 KO/TKO; 30 SUB. 10 finishes in R1, 12 in R4–R5. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards. Age 21 vs 39 is why leftover mass can sit late.
LIVE TRIGGER: If Rosas lands a TD in R1, overlay distance — TD avg 6.10 and his last 3 UFC wins were DEC after control.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 ROSAS SUB R4 17.9min #002 ROSAS DEC DEC 25.0min #003 ROSAS SUB R3 10.2min #004 ROSAS DEC DEC 25.0min #005 ROSAS SUB R4 18.4min #006 ROSAS KO R2 8.3min #007 ROSAS SUB R1 0.7min #008 ROSAS SUB R3 14.8min #009 BARCELOS SUB R3 10.8min #010 ROSAS DEC DEC 25.0min #011 BARCELOS SUB R5 23.3min #012 BARCELOS SUB R1 4.9min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PASSFree preview46%
Dumont
54%
Perez
PASS — edge thin. No clear angle.
3%
KO/TKO
1%
SUB
96%
DEC
No ticket — books Perez −132 / Dumont +107, not our ticket
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 96%
PATH TO VICTORY — DUMONT • SLpM 3.89 Def 65% SApM 2.12 (ufcstats) — cleaner standing output • Height 5'7" / 67" vs 5'5" / 66". Last-5 all DEC (including L Edwards) • Sub avg 0.0 — she has to win minutes, not a finish prop • Sims favored striking at a measured pace (3.89 sig. str./min, 1.56 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — PEREZ • TD avg 4.90 Acc 49% (ufcstats) — Chiasson 6 TD, Edwards 6 TD on the last-5 • SApM 1.58 (ufcstats) among the lower absorb marks in WBW • One finish in last-5: SUB R1 Zhelezniakova. The rest are control-to-decision • Sims favored wrestling at a measured pace (2.88 sig. str./min, 4.9 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 96 of 100 ended DEC; 3 KO/TKO; 1 SUB. 1 finish in R1. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards.
LIVE TRIGGER: If Perez scores a TD in R1, overlay DEC — TD avg 4.90 and 4 of her last 5 were decisions after control; the other was SUB R1.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 DUMONT DEC DEC 15.0min #002 DUMONT DEC DEC 15.0min #003 PEREZ DEC DEC 15.0min #004 PEREZ DEC DEC 15.0min #005 DUMONT DEC DEC 15.0min #006 DUMONT DEC DEC 15.0min #007 PEREZ DEC DEC 15.0min #008 DUMONT DEC DEC 15.0min #009 PEREZ DEC DEC 15.0min #010 DUMONT DEC DEC 15.0min #011 PEREZ DEC DEC 15.0min #012 PEREZ DEC DEC 15.0min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PLAY73%
Hernandez
27%
Dumas
Best plays · Hernandez 73% · DEC lean 76% · distance 76%. Not our ticket.
17%
KO/TKO
7%
SUB
76%
DEC
0.5u · Hernandez ML · books Hernandez −245 / Dumas +194, not our ticket
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 76%
PATH TO VICTORY — HERNANDEZ • UFC.com 8-0-0, light heavyweight debut. Win split KO 3 / SUB 5 / DEC 0 — no decision on the profile • Reach 73.5" vs Dumas 79" (UFC.com). Height 69" vs 74". Stance not listed on the Hernandez page • No ufcstats line. Average fight time on UFC.com is 06:01. Bout rounds are not filled in • Sims favored a mix of striking and wrestling. UFC rate line is UNKNOWN, so pace is not filled in. No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — DUMAS • Reach 79" vs 73.5" (ufcstats / UFC.com). Orthodox. Same 10-5-0 record • UFC.com career 4 KO / 4 DEC / 2 SUB. SApM 2.64 Def 53% is the ufcstats line, not a Hernandez rate • Last-5 decisive: L SUB R1 McVey, L SUB R2 Johnson, L KO R1 Oleksiejczuk, W DEC Tiuliulin, L KO R1 Ruziboev. Reese NC is not a method • Sims favored a mix of striking and wrestling at a measured pace (1.97 sig. str./min, 1.3 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 76 of 100 ended DEC; 17 KO/TKO; 7 SUB. 14 finishes in R1. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards.
LIVE TRIGGER: Debut. No ufcstats line and no called round. UFC.com win split is SUB 5 / KO 3 / DEC 0 with average fight time 06:01 — if it is still standing late, that is off the Hernandez profile, not a scripted finish.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 HERNANDEZ DEC DEC 15.0min #002 HERNANDEZ DEC DEC 15.0min #003 DUMAS DEC DEC 15.0min #004 HERNANDEZ KO R2 5.7min #005 DUMAS KO R2 5.7min #006 DUMAS KO R3 10.2min #007 HERNANDEZ SUB R1 3.9min #008 HERNANDEZ KO R1 3.4min #009 HERNANDEZ DEC DEC 15.0min #010 HERNANDEZ DEC DEC 15.0min #011 DUMAS DEC DEC 15.0min #012 HERNANDEZ DEC DEC 15.0min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PLAY60%
Osmanli
40%
Akylbek
Best plays · Osmanli 60% · SUB lean 44% · finish lean 64%. Not our ticket.
20%
KO/TKO
44%
SUB
36%
DEC
0.5u · Akylbek ML · books Osmanli −295 / Akylbek +225, not our ticket
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 36%
PATH TO VICTORY — OSMANLI • Tapology career 8 SUB in 12 wins — UFC calendar UNKNOWN, last-5 + career mix only • Last-5: SUB R2 Yunusov, SUB R2 Boraev, KO R2 Ashour — finish mass sits early-mid, not a DEC script • Height 5'9" vs 5'7". TUF 34 bantamweight final (buggy choke vs Strong is not a UFC bout) • Sims favored grappling. UFC rate line is UNKNOWN, so pace is not filled in. No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — AKYLBEK • Career 6 SUB / 0 KO wins (Tapology) — his offense is the tap, not the KO • Last-5 losses are KO R1 Eskiev and KO R2 Nazruloev — chin is the hole, not a ufcstats line • SUB R1 Bobokulov and SUB R4 Miller are the win path if he hits the mat first • Sims favored grappling. UFC rate line is UNKNOWN, so pace is not filled in. No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 36 of 100 ended DEC; 20 KO/TKO; 44 SUB. 31 finishes in R1. Submission share (career / last-5 + sub avg) ate the finish bucket.
LIVE TRIGGER: If they hit the mat in R1 with Osmanli on top, overlay SUB — last-5 is 2 SUB in R2 plus a TUF buggy choke (not UFC).
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 OSMANLI KO R3 10.7min #002 AKYLBEK SUB R3 10.2min #003 OSMANLI SUB R1 4.3min #004 AKYLBEK SUB R2 9.4min #005 AKYLBEK SUB R3 12.5min #006 OSMANLI DEC DEC 15.0min #007 AKYLBEK DEC DEC 15.0min #008 OSMANLI DEC DEC 15.0min #009 OSMANLI DEC DEC 15.0min #010 OSMANLI SUB R3 11.9min #011 OSMANLI KO R1 4.5min #012 OSMANLI DEC DEC 15.0min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PLAY57%
Amaya
43%
Black
Best plays · Amaya 57% · DEC lean 65% · distance 65%. Not our ticket.
25%
KO/TKO
10%
SUB
65%
DEC
1u · Amaya ML · books Black −205 / Amaya +163, not our ticket
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 65%
PATH TO VICTORY — AMAYA • 8-0. Tapology 3 KO / 2 SUB / 3 DEC. NO UFC stats — UNKNOWN • Last-5 Combate: KO R1 Sugimoto, TKO R2 Jean-Francois — finish is her route vs a decision fighter • 5'4" / 64" vs Black 5'4" / 63.5". TUF 34 strawweight final • Sims favored a mix of striking and wrestling. UFC rate line is UNKNOWN, so pace is not filled in. No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — BLACK • UFC.com 16-4, 5 KO / 1 SUB / 10 DEC. Last-5 is 4 DEC + KO R1 Mauldin • Reach 63.5" vs Amaya 64". All 4 career losses on the prior tape were DEC • If it stays standing into R3, the decision rate is the product • Sims favored striking. UFC rate line is UNKNOWN, so pace is not filled in. No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 65 of 100 ended DEC; 25 KO/TKO; 10 SUB. 16 finishes in R1. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards.
LIVE TRIGGER: If no KO in R1, overlay over 2.5 — Black last-5 is 4 DEC and Amaya last-5 is 2 DEC.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 AMAYA KO R2 9.9min #002 AMAYA DEC DEC 15.0min #003 BLACK KO R1 1.3min #004 BLACK DEC DEC 15.0min #005 AMAYA DEC DEC 15.0min #006 AMAYA KO R1 0.3min #007 BLACK DEC DEC 15.0min #008 AMAYA KO R1 2.5min #009 BLACK DEC DEC 15.0min #010 AMAYA DEC DEC 15.0min #011 BLACK DEC DEC 15.0min #012 AMAYA KO R1 3.3min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PLAY42%
Hiestand
58%
Nakamura
Best plays · Nakamura 58% · DEC lean 63% · distance 63%. Not our ticket.
16%
KO/TKO
21%
SUB
63%
DEC
0.75u · Hiestand ML · books Nakamura −335 / Hiestand +250, not our ticket
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 63%
PATH TO VICTORY — HIESTAND • TD avg 4.80 Acc 46% (ufcstats) — wrestle into a southpaw who lists TD def 100% on a 5-fight sample (shrunk, not a wall) • Reach 71" vs 68". Last-5 finishes are R3 (SUB Armfield, KO Danaa), not R1 • Sub avg 1.1 if he ever gets on top of Nakamura • Sims favored wrestling at a measured pace (2.7 sig. str./min, 4.8 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — NAKAMURA • SApM 1.72 Def 63% (ufcstats) — low-absorb wrestler • TD acc 81% + sub avg 1.4. Last-5 finishes are both KO/TKO R1 (Fletcher, Kazama) • UFC.com: 6 career KO, 6 R1 finishes. Southpaw vs orthodox mismatch • Sims favored wrestling at a measured pace (3.27 sig. str./min, 2.58 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 63 of 100 ended DEC; 16 KO/TKO; 21 SUB. 21 finishes in R1. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards.
LIVE TRIGGER: If Nakamura does not score a KD in R1, fade the KO prop — two of his last-5 are R1 KO/TKO, the other three went DEC.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 HIESTAND SUB R1 0.5min #002 NAKAMURA SUB R1 2.8min #003 HIESTAND SUB R1 3.8min #004 NAKAMURA KO R3 10.6min #005 NAKAMURA KO R1 1.8min #006 NAKAMURA DEC DEC 15.0min #007 NAKAMURA DEC DEC 15.0min #008 NAKAMURA DEC DEC 15.0min #009 NAKAMURA SUB R2 5.2min #010 NAKAMURA KO R1 2.3min #011 HIESTAND DEC DEC 15.0min #012 HIESTAND DEC DEC 15.0min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PLAY46%
Vieira
54%
Bryczek
Best plays · Bryczek 54% · DEC lean 65% · distance 65%. Not our ticket.
25%
KO/TKO
10%
SUB
65%
DEC
0.5u · Bryczek ML · books Vieira −121 / Bryczek −103, not our ticket
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 65%
PATH TO VICTORY — VIEIRA • Sub avg 0.9 (ufcstats) + BJJ — SUB R1 Petrosyan is on the last-5, not a vibe • TD avg 2.87 into Bryczek TD 0.36 / 15 (ufcstats, 3-fight UFC sample) • Str Acc 54% vs Bryczek Acc 37% if it hits the mat and he has to box off his back • Sims favored grappling at a measured pace (3.43 sig. str./min, 2.87 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — BRYCZEK • UFC.com career 12 KO / 10 R1 finishes — power is the standing route • Reach 75" vs 73". SApM 4.51 but last-5 UFC win is KO R3 Tavares • Vieira last-5 includes L KO R3 Nickal — the chin sample is on tape, not invented • Sims favored striking at a measured pace (2.8 sig. str./min, 0.36 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 65 of 100 ended DEC; 25 KO/TKO; 10 SUB. 11 finishes in R1. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards.
LIVE TRIGGER: If Vieira locks a body lock in R1, overlay SUB — sub avg 0.9 and last-5 includes SUB R1 Petrosyan.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 BRYCZEK KO R3 10.7min #002 BRYCZEK KO R2 5.5min #003 VIEIRA DEC DEC 15.0min #004 BRYCZEK KO R1 2.2min #005 VIEIRA DEC DEC 15.0min #006 VIEIRA DEC DEC 15.0min #007 BRYCZEK KO R3 12.6min #008 VIEIRA SUB R3 13.6min #009 VIEIRA DEC DEC 15.0min #010 BRYCZEK KO R3 11.5min #011 BRYCZEK DEC DEC 15.0min #012 VIEIRA KO R3 14.5min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PLAY55%
Bellato
45%
Edwards
Best plays · Bellato 55% · DEC lean 56% · distance 56%. Not our ticket.
44%
KO/TKO
0%
SUB
56%
DEC
0.5u · Edwards ML · books Bellato −175 / Edwards +138, not our ticket
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 56%
PATH TO VICTORY — BELLATO • SLpM 5.37 Acc 60% (ufcstats). UFC.com lists 8 KO and 9 R1 finishes • TD def 94% (ufcstats) — Edwards’ UFC TD line is 0/4 in one fight, not a wrestle path • Last-5 UFC: KO R1 Fernandez, KO R2 Potieria; DEC when he does not finish (Stirling, Crute draw) • Sims favored striking at a higher pace (5.37 sig. str./min, 1.38 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — EDWARDS • 6'5" / 78" southpaw vs 6'3" / 75". Reach and stance are the standing route • UFC.com career 4 KO / 2 SUB. Last-5: TKO R2 Whitney, KO R1 Collier, KO R1 Hatch • UFC n=1 L S-DEC Bukauskas (SLpM 2.40) — tiny sample, blended with career mix, not copied as 0 TD def • Sims favored striking at a measured pace (2.4 sig. str./min, 0 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 56 of 100 ended DEC; 44 KO/TKO; 0 SUB. 15 finishes in R1. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards.
LIVE TRIGGER: If Bellato does not land a KD in R1, overlay Edwards to the cards — Bellato last-5 has two DECs (Stirling, Crute) when he does not finish.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 EDWARDS KO R1 3.2min #002 EDWARDS DEC DEC 15.0min #003 BELLATO DEC DEC 15.0min #004 BELLATO DEC DEC 15.0min #005 BELLATO DEC DEC 15.0min #006 EDWARDS KO R3 13.1min #007 BELLATO DEC DEC 15.0min #008 EDWARDS DEC DEC 15.0min #009 EDWARDS KO R3 11.6min #010 EDWARDS DEC DEC 15.0min #011 BELLATO DEC DEC 15.0min #012 EDWARDS KO R2 8.9min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PLAY63%
Brener
37%
Harrell
Best plays · Brener 63% · KO/TKO lean 48% · finish lean 65%. Not our ticket.
48%
KO/TKO
17%
SUB
35%
DEC
0.5u · Brener ML · books Brener −115 / Harrell −105, not our ticket
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 35%
PATH TO VICTORY — BRENER • SLpM 4.76 SApM 5.86 (ufcstats) — Chute Boxe volume. Sub avg 0.0 • Reach 72" vs 68". Last-5: two KO wins (R1 Kruschewsky, R3 Kutateladze) then a 3-fight UFC skid • TD def 76% vs a tiny-sample wrestler-grappler — keep it standing and the 10/11 finish prior has to box • Sims favored striking at a higher pace (4.76 sig. str./min, 0.99 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — HARRELL • Tapology 6 KO / 4 SUB / 1 DEC in 11 wins — finish 10/11 is the prior, not the n=1 UFC line • ufcstats n=1 L KO R1 Smith (SApM 10.94, TD 0) is a 3:01 sample — blended, not treated as a rate • Last-5 also has SUB R1 Guillard and KO R2 Parks. Southpaw vs orthodox • Sims favored grappling at a measured pace (2.32 sig. str./min, 0 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 35 of 100 ended DEC; 48 KO/TKO; 17 SUB. 29 finishes in R1. KO/TKO share (career / last-5 + volume) ate the finish bucket.
LIVE TRIGGER: If Harrell is still standing at 3:00 of R1, overlay him — his only UFC result is a R1 KO/TKO loss to Smith at 3:01.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 BRENER DEC DEC 15.0min #002 BRENER KO R2 8.9min #003 HARRELL SUB R1 2.1min #004 HARRELL DEC DEC 15.0min #005 HARRELL KO R1 1.2min #006 HARRELL DEC DEC 15.0min #007 BRENER KO R2 9.2min #008 BRENER DEC DEC 15.0min #009 BRENER KO R2 8.0min #010 BRENER KO R2 6.0min #011 BRENER KO R2 9.6min #012 HARRELL KO R2 8.4min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PLAY39%
Jackson
61%
Simon
Best plays · Simon 61% · DEC lean 88% · distance 88%. Not our ticket.
12%
KO/TKO
0%
SUB
88%
DEC
1.25u · Simon ML · books Jackson −186 / Simon +150, not our ticket
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 88%
PATH TO VICTORY — JACKSON • Reach 75" vs 69" (+6"). SApM 1.40 Def 60% (ufcstats) — low-absorb southpaw • Last-5 has KO R1 Blackshear and KO R1 Yahya if the first punch is there • TD avg 2.71 Acc 63%. They already fought: UFC 227 Simon W DEC, 7 TD — rematch range is the counter • Sims favored a mix of striking and wrestling at a measured pace (3.02 sig. str./min, 2.71 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — SIMON • TD avg 4.49 Acc 41% Def 76% (ufcstats) — wrestle the southpaw, same as 227 • Last-5: 4 DEC + KO R1 Basharat. Both just lost to Barcelos by DEC • Height 5'6" vs 5'10" — has to close the 6" reach or the cards follow Jackson volume • Sims favored wrestling at a measured pace (3.03 sig. str./min, 4.49 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 88 of 100 ended DEC; 12 KO/TKO; 0 SUB. 4 finishes in R1. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards.
LIVE TRIGGER: If no KO in R1 (Jackson last-5 has two R1 KO/TKO), overlay DEC — both also just lost to Barcelos by DEC.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 SIMON DEC DEC 15.0min #002 JACKSON DEC DEC 15.0min #003 SIMON DEC DEC 15.0min #004 SIMON KO R1 2.4min #005 JACKSON KO R3 11.7min #006 SIMON DEC DEC 15.0min #007 JACKSON DEC DEC 15.0min #008 SIMON DEC DEC 15.0min #009 SIMON DEC DEC 15.0min #010 SIMON DEC DEC 15.0min #011 SIMON DEC DEC 15.0min #012 SIMON DEC DEC 15.0min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PASSFree preview76%
Castaneda
24%
Alatengheili
PASS — no clear angle in the 100.
10%
KO/TKO
0%
SUB
90%
DEC
No ticket — books Castaneda −295 / Alateng +225, not our ticket
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 90%
PATH TO VICTORY — CASTANEDA • SLpM 4.95 Acc 51% vs Alateng Acc 32% (ufcstats) — volume on the feet • Reach 71" vs 66". Last-5 is 0 finishes in 5 (4 DEC + 1 draw) • TD def 75% / sub avg 0.1 — not a tap fight • Sims favored striking at a higher pace (4.95 sig. str./min, 1.49 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — ALATENG • TD avg 1.74 Acc 43% Def 75% (ufcstats) — grind, do not chase the KO • Last-5: 4 DEC + KO R1 Croom. Sub avg 0.0 • SApM 5.12 vs Castaneda SLpM 4.95 — he absorbs; he has to make it ugly and slow • Sims favored a mix of striking and wrestling at a measured pace (2.82 sig. str./min, 1.74 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 90 of 100 ended DEC; 10 KO/TKO; 0 SUB. 3 finishes in R1. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards.
LIVE TRIGGER: If nobody is cut after R1, overlay goes-the-distance — 9 of 10 combined last-5s are DEC.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 ALATENG DEC DEC 15.0min #002 CASTANEDA DEC DEC 15.0min #003 CASTANEDA DEC DEC 15.0min #004 CASTANEDA DEC DEC 15.0min #005 CASTANEDA DEC DEC 15.0min #006 CASTANEDA DEC DEC 15.0min #007 CASTANEDA DEC DEC 15.0min #008 CASTANEDA DEC DEC 15.0min #009 ALATENG KO R1 4.8min #010 CASTANEDA DEC DEC 15.0min #011 CASTANEDA DEC DEC 15.0min #012 CASTANEDA DEC DEC 15.0min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PASS16%
Demopoulos
84%
Jauregui
PASS — no clear angle in the 100.
52%
KO/TKO
8%
SUB
40%
DEC
No ticket — books Jauregui −900 / Demopoulos +575, not our ticket
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 40%
PATH TO VICTORY — DEMOPOULOS • Sub avg 0.4 (ufcstats) — the scramble is the only live finish path • TD def 26% vs Jauregui TD avg 0.00 — not a wrestle fight; she has to drag a striker into chaos • Age 37 vs 25. Last-5 is a 3-fight skid (Horth DEC, Alencar DEC, Amorim SUB R1) • Sims favored grappling at a measured pace (3.37 sig. str./min, 0.32 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — JAUREGUI • SLpM 6.64 vs Demopoulos Def 41% SApM 5.39 (ufcstats) — volume on the feet • Reach 64" vs 59" (+5"). Age 25 vs 37 • Last-5 has KO R2 Nunes and two R1 losses (SUB Souza, KO Gomes) — early variance is real. Books −900 is a label, not the ticket • Sims favored striking at a higher pace (6.64 sig. str./min, 0 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 40 of 100 ended DEC; 52 KO/TKO; 8 SUB. 38 finishes in R1. KO/TKO share (career / last-5 + volume) ate the finish bucket.
LIVE TRIGGER: If no SUB in R1 (Demopoulos last-5 has SUB R1 loss to Amorim; Jauregui last-5 has SUB R1 loss to Souza), overlay Jauregui on the feet — SLpM 6.64.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 JAUREGUI DEC DEC 15.0min #002 JAUREGUI DEC DEC 15.0min #003 JAUREGUI DEC DEC 15.0min #004 JAUREGUI KO R1 1.3min #005 JAUREGUI DEC DEC 15.0min #006 JAUREGUI KO R1 4.0min #007 JAUREGUI KO R3 13.9min #008 JAUREGUI DEC DEC 15.0min #009 JAUREGUI KO R3 10.6min #010 JAUREGUI KO R1 1.6min #011 DEMOPOULOS KO R1 0.7min #012 JAUREGUI KO R3 11.2min
n=100 Monte Carlo from public UFC.com / ufcstats / Tapology tape plus this-week news. Model output, not a guarantee, not a ticket we place. Research only.