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n=100 · Simcage Pro

100-sim board

UFC Vegas 121 desk. Numbers are model output, not a ticket we place. Archived desk. Read-only.

Betting styles

model angle, not a ticket we place.

Safe

    No safe parlay on this card.

    Aggressive

    • Hernandez · DEC. model angle, not a ticket we place.
    • Osmanli · SUB. model angle, not a ticket we place.
    • Brener · KO/TKO. model angle, not a ticket we place.
    • Simon · DEC. model angle, not a ticket we place.
    Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    PASS

    60%

    Rosas

    40%

    Barcelos

    PASS — no clear angle in the 100.

    7%

    KO/TKO

    30%

    SUB

    63%

    DEC

    No ticket — books Rosas −186 / Barcelos +150, not our ticket

    Finish-round histogram

    10R1
    7R2
    8R3
    9R4
    3R5
    63DEC

    Goes the distance 63%

    PATH TO VICTORY — ROSAS • TD avg 6.10 / 15 (ufcstats) — volume into Barcelos TD def 87%, not a one-shot • Age 21 vs 39 in a scheduled 5-rounder — fade is an R4–R5 input • Last-5 is DEC Font, DEC Morales, DEC Aoriqileng after control (Font fight 16 TD) • Sub avg 0.9 + SUB R2 Turcios is the tap path if a takedown sticks • Sims favored wrestling at a measured pace (1.34 sig. str./min, 6.1 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — BARCELOS • SLpM 4.65 vs Rosas 1.34 (ufcstats) if it stays standing • TD def 87% (ufcstats) — stuff the first shot and the wrestle-to-decision script dies • Last-5: DEC Jackson (6 TD, 2 sub att), DEC Simon, DEC Garbrandt, DEC Talbott • Even 67" reach. Open minutes are his, not a KO script — last-5 has one SUB, zero KO • Sims favored a mix of striking and wrestling at a higher pace (4.65 sig. str./min, 2.51 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 63 of 100 ended DEC; 7 KO/TKO; 30 SUB. 10 finishes in R1, 12 in R4–R5. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards. Age 21 vs 39 is why leftover mass can sit late.

    LIVE TRIGGER: If Rosas lands a TD in R1, overlay distance — TD avg 6.10 and his last 3 UFC wins were DEC after control.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  ROSAS  SUB  R4  17.9min
    #002  ROSAS  DEC  DEC  25.0min
    #003  ROSAS  SUB  R3  10.2min
    #004  ROSAS  DEC  DEC  25.0min
    #005  ROSAS  SUB  R4  18.4min
    #006  ROSAS  KO  R2  8.3min
    #007  ROSAS  SUB  R1  0.7min
    #008  ROSAS  SUB  R3  14.8min
    #009  BARCELOS  SUB  R3  10.8min
    #010  ROSAS  DEC  DEC  25.0min
    #011  BARCELOS  SUB  R5  23.3min
    #012  BARCELOS  SUB  R1  4.9min
    How the 100-sim board works
    Norma Dumont vs Ailin Perez

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    PASSFree preview

    46%

    Dumont

    54%

    Perez

    PASS — edge thin. No clear angle.

    3%

    KO/TKO

    1%

    SUB

    96%

    DEC

    No ticket — books Perez −132 / Dumont +107, not our ticket

    Finish-round histogram

    1R1
    2R2
    1R3
    96DEC

    Goes the distance 96%

    PATH TO VICTORY — DUMONT • SLpM 3.89 Def 65% SApM 2.12 (ufcstats) — cleaner standing output • Height 5'7" / 67" vs 5'5" / 66". Last-5 all DEC (including L Edwards) • Sub avg 0.0 — she has to win minutes, not a finish prop • Sims favored striking at a measured pace (3.89 sig. str./min, 1.56 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — PEREZ • TD avg 4.90 Acc 49% (ufcstats) — Chiasson 6 TD, Edwards 6 TD on the last-5 • SApM 1.58 (ufcstats) among the lower absorb marks in WBW • One finish in last-5: SUB R1 Zhelezniakova. The rest are control-to-decision • Sims favored wrestling at a measured pace (2.88 sig. str./min, 4.9 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 96 of 100 ended DEC; 3 KO/TKO; 1 SUB. 1 finish in R1. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards.

    LIVE TRIGGER: If Perez scores a TD in R1, overlay DEC — TD avg 4.90 and 4 of her last 5 were decisions after control; the other was SUB R1.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  DUMONT  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #002  DUMONT  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #003  PEREZ  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #004  PEREZ  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #005  DUMONT  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #006  DUMONT  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #007  PEREZ  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #008  DUMONT  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #009  PEREZ  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #010  DUMONT  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #011  PEREZ  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #012  PEREZ  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    How the 100-sim board works
    Luis Hernandez vs Sedriques Dumas

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    PLAY

    73%

    Hernandez

    27%

    Dumas

    Best plays · Hernandez 73% · DEC lean 76% · distance 76%. Not our ticket.

    17%

    KO/TKO

    7%

    SUB

    76%

    DEC

    0.5u · Hernandez ML · books Hernandez −245 / Dumas +194, not our ticket

    Finish-round histogram

    14R1
    8R2
    2R3
    76DEC

    Goes the distance 76%

    PATH TO VICTORY — HERNANDEZ • UFC.com 8-0-0, light heavyweight debut. Win split KO 3 / SUB 5 / DEC 0 — no decision on the profile • Reach 73.5" vs Dumas 79" (UFC.com). Height 69" vs 74". Stance not listed on the Hernandez page • No ufcstats line. Average fight time on UFC.com is 06:01. Bout rounds are not filled in • Sims favored a mix of striking and wrestling. UFC rate line is UNKNOWN, so pace is not filled in. No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — DUMAS • Reach 79" vs 73.5" (ufcstats / UFC.com). Orthodox. Same 10-5-0 record • UFC.com career 4 KO / 4 DEC / 2 SUB. SApM 2.64 Def 53% is the ufcstats line, not a Hernandez rate • Last-5 decisive: L SUB R1 McVey, L SUB R2 Johnson, L KO R1 Oleksiejczuk, W DEC Tiuliulin, L KO R1 Ruziboev. Reese NC is not a method • Sims favored a mix of striking and wrestling at a measured pace (1.97 sig. str./min, 1.3 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 76 of 100 ended DEC; 17 KO/TKO; 7 SUB. 14 finishes in R1. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards.

    LIVE TRIGGER: Debut. No ufcstats line and no called round. UFC.com win split is SUB 5 / KO 3 / DEC 0 with average fight time 06:01 — if it is still standing late, that is off the Hernandez profile, not a scripted finish.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  HERNANDEZ  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #002  HERNANDEZ  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #003  DUMAS  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #004  HERNANDEZ  KO  R2  5.7min
    #005  DUMAS  KO  R2  5.7min
    #006  DUMAS  KO  R3  10.2min
    #007  HERNANDEZ  SUB  R1  3.9min
    #008  HERNANDEZ  KO  R1  3.4min
    #009  HERNANDEZ  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #010  HERNANDEZ  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #011  DUMAS  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #012  HERNANDEZ  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    How the 100-sim board works
    Mahammadali Osmanli vs Ilimbek Akylbek

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    PLAY

    60%

    Osmanli

    40%

    Akylbek

    Best plays · Osmanli 60% · SUB lean 44% · finish lean 64%. Not our ticket.

    20%

    KO/TKO

    44%

    SUB

    36%

    DEC

    0.5u · Akylbek ML · books Osmanli −295 / Akylbek +225, not our ticket

    Finish-round histogram

    31R1
    19R2
    14R3
    36DEC

    Goes the distance 36%

    PATH TO VICTORY — OSMANLI • Tapology career 8 SUB in 12 wins — UFC calendar UNKNOWN, last-5 + career mix only • Last-5: SUB R2 Yunusov, SUB R2 Boraev, KO R2 Ashour — finish mass sits early-mid, not a DEC script • Height 5'9" vs 5'7". TUF 34 bantamweight final (buggy choke vs Strong is not a UFC bout) • Sims favored grappling. UFC rate line is UNKNOWN, so pace is not filled in. No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — AKYLBEK • Career 6 SUB / 0 KO wins (Tapology) — his offense is the tap, not the KO • Last-5 losses are KO R1 Eskiev and KO R2 Nazruloev — chin is the hole, not a ufcstats line • SUB R1 Bobokulov and SUB R4 Miller are the win path if he hits the mat first • Sims favored grappling. UFC rate line is UNKNOWN, so pace is not filled in. No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 36 of 100 ended DEC; 20 KO/TKO; 44 SUB. 31 finishes in R1. Submission share (career / last-5 + sub avg) ate the finish bucket.

    LIVE TRIGGER: If they hit the mat in R1 with Osmanli on top, overlay SUB — last-5 is 2 SUB in R2 plus a TUF buggy choke (not UFC).

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  OSMANLI  KO  R3  10.7min
    #002  AKYLBEK  SUB  R3  10.2min
    #003  OSMANLI  SUB  R1  4.3min
    #004  AKYLBEK  SUB  R2  9.4min
    #005  AKYLBEK  SUB  R3  12.5min
    #006  OSMANLI  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #007  AKYLBEK  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #008  OSMANLI  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #009  OSMANLI  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #010  OSMANLI  SUB  R3  11.9min
    #011  OSMANLI  KO  R1  4.5min
    #012  OSMANLI  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    How the 100-sim board works
    Melissa Amaya vs Tina Black

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    PLAY

    57%

    Amaya

    43%

    Black

    Best plays · Amaya 57% · DEC lean 65% · distance 65%. Not our ticket.

    25%

    KO/TKO

    10%

    SUB

    65%

    DEC

    1u · Amaya ML · books Black −205 / Amaya +163, not our ticket

    Finish-round histogram

    16R1
    10R2
    9R3
    65DEC

    Goes the distance 65%

    PATH TO VICTORY — AMAYA • 8-0. Tapology 3 KO / 2 SUB / 3 DEC. NO UFC stats — UNKNOWN • Last-5 Combate: KO R1 Sugimoto, TKO R2 Jean-Francois — finish is her route vs a decision fighter • 5'4" / 64" vs Black 5'4" / 63.5". TUF 34 strawweight final • Sims favored a mix of striking and wrestling. UFC rate line is UNKNOWN, so pace is not filled in. No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — BLACK • UFC.com 16-4, 5 KO / 1 SUB / 10 DEC. Last-5 is 4 DEC + KO R1 Mauldin • Reach 63.5" vs Amaya 64". All 4 career losses on the prior tape were DEC • If it stays standing into R3, the decision rate is the product • Sims favored striking. UFC rate line is UNKNOWN, so pace is not filled in. No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 65 of 100 ended DEC; 25 KO/TKO; 10 SUB. 16 finishes in R1. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards.

    LIVE TRIGGER: If no KO in R1, overlay over 2.5 — Black last-5 is 4 DEC and Amaya last-5 is 2 DEC.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  AMAYA  KO  R2  9.9min
    #002  AMAYA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #003  BLACK  KO  R1  1.3min
    #004  BLACK  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #005  AMAYA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #006  AMAYA  KO  R1  0.3min
    #007  BLACK  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #008  AMAYA  KO  R1  2.5min
    #009  BLACK  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #010  AMAYA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #011  BLACK  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #012  AMAYA  KO  R1  3.3min
    How the 100-sim board works
    Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    PLAY

    42%

    Hiestand

    58%

    Nakamura

    Best plays · Nakamura 58% · DEC lean 63% · distance 63%. Not our ticket.

    16%

    KO/TKO

    21%

    SUB

    63%

    DEC

    0.75u · Hiestand ML · books Nakamura −335 / Hiestand +250, not our ticket

    Finish-round histogram

    21R1
    8R2
    8R3
    63DEC

    Goes the distance 63%

    PATH TO VICTORY — HIESTAND • TD avg 4.80 Acc 46% (ufcstats) — wrestle into a southpaw who lists TD def 100% on a 5-fight sample (shrunk, not a wall) • Reach 71" vs 68". Last-5 finishes are R3 (SUB Armfield, KO Danaa), not R1 • Sub avg 1.1 if he ever gets on top of Nakamura • Sims favored wrestling at a measured pace (2.7 sig. str./min, 4.8 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — NAKAMURA • SApM 1.72 Def 63% (ufcstats) — low-absorb wrestler • TD acc 81% + sub avg 1.4. Last-5 finishes are both KO/TKO R1 (Fletcher, Kazama) • UFC.com: 6 career KO, 6 R1 finishes. Southpaw vs orthodox mismatch • Sims favored wrestling at a measured pace (3.27 sig. str./min, 2.58 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 63 of 100 ended DEC; 16 KO/TKO; 21 SUB. 21 finishes in R1. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards.

    LIVE TRIGGER: If Nakamura does not score a KD in R1, fade the KO prop — two of his last-5 are R1 KO/TKO, the other three went DEC.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  HIESTAND  SUB  R1  0.5min
    #002  NAKAMURA  SUB  R1  2.8min
    #003  HIESTAND  SUB  R1  3.8min
    #004  NAKAMURA  KO  R3  10.6min
    #005  NAKAMURA  KO  R1  1.8min
    #006  NAKAMURA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #007  NAKAMURA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #008  NAKAMURA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #009  NAKAMURA  SUB  R2  5.2min
    #010  NAKAMURA  KO  R1  2.3min
    #011  HIESTAND  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #012  HIESTAND  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    How the 100-sim board works
    Rodolfo Vieira vs Robert Bryczek

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    PLAY

    46%

    Vieira

    54%

    Bryczek

    Best plays · Bryczek 54% · DEC lean 65% · distance 65%. Not our ticket.

    25%

    KO/TKO

    10%

    SUB

    65%

    DEC

    0.5u · Bryczek ML · books Vieira −121 / Bryczek −103, not our ticket

    Finish-round histogram

    11R1
    12R2
    12R3
    65DEC

    Goes the distance 65%

    PATH TO VICTORY — VIEIRA • Sub avg 0.9 (ufcstats) + BJJ — SUB R1 Petrosyan is on the last-5, not a vibe • TD avg 2.87 into Bryczek TD 0.36 / 15 (ufcstats, 3-fight UFC sample) • Str Acc 54% vs Bryczek Acc 37% if it hits the mat and he has to box off his back • Sims favored grappling at a measured pace (3.43 sig. str./min, 2.87 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — BRYCZEK • UFC.com career 12 KO / 10 R1 finishes — power is the standing route • Reach 75" vs 73". SApM 4.51 but last-5 UFC win is KO R3 Tavares • Vieira last-5 includes L KO R3 Nickal — the chin sample is on tape, not invented • Sims favored striking at a measured pace (2.8 sig. str./min, 0.36 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 65 of 100 ended DEC; 25 KO/TKO; 10 SUB. 11 finishes in R1. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards.

    LIVE TRIGGER: If Vieira locks a body lock in R1, overlay SUB — sub avg 0.9 and last-5 includes SUB R1 Petrosyan.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  BRYCZEK  KO  R3  10.7min
    #002  BRYCZEK  KO  R2  5.5min
    #003  VIEIRA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #004  BRYCZEK  KO  R1  2.2min
    #005  VIEIRA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #006  VIEIRA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #007  BRYCZEK  KO  R3  12.6min
    #008  VIEIRA  SUB  R3  13.6min
    #009  VIEIRA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #010  BRYCZEK  KO  R3  11.5min
    #011  BRYCZEK  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #012  VIEIRA  KO  R3  14.5min
    How the 100-sim board works
    Rodolfo Bellato vs Christian Edwards

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    PLAY

    55%

    Bellato

    45%

    Edwards

    Best plays · Bellato 55% · DEC lean 56% · distance 56%. Not our ticket.

    44%

    KO/TKO

    0%

    SUB

    56%

    DEC

    0.5u · Edwards ML · books Bellato −175 / Edwards +138, not our ticket

    Finish-round histogram

    15R1
    19R2
    10R3
    56DEC

    Goes the distance 56%

    PATH TO VICTORY — BELLATO • SLpM 5.37 Acc 60% (ufcstats). UFC.com lists 8 KO and 9 R1 finishes • TD def 94% (ufcstats) — Edwards’ UFC TD line is 0/4 in one fight, not a wrestle path • Last-5 UFC: KO R1 Fernandez, KO R2 Potieria; DEC when he does not finish (Stirling, Crute draw) • Sims favored striking at a higher pace (5.37 sig. str./min, 1.38 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — EDWARDS • 6'5" / 78" southpaw vs 6'3" / 75". Reach and stance are the standing route • UFC.com career 4 KO / 2 SUB. Last-5: TKO R2 Whitney, KO R1 Collier, KO R1 Hatch • UFC n=1 L S-DEC Bukauskas (SLpM 2.40) — tiny sample, blended with career mix, not copied as 0 TD def • Sims favored striking at a measured pace (2.4 sig. str./min, 0 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 56 of 100 ended DEC; 44 KO/TKO; 0 SUB. 15 finishes in R1. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards.

    LIVE TRIGGER: If Bellato does not land a KD in R1, overlay Edwards to the cards — Bellato last-5 has two DECs (Stirling, Crute) when he does not finish.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  EDWARDS  KO  R1  3.2min
    #002  EDWARDS  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #003  BELLATO  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #004  BELLATO  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #005  BELLATO  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #006  EDWARDS  KO  R3  13.1min
    #007  BELLATO  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #008  EDWARDS  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #009  EDWARDS  KO  R3  11.6min
    #010  EDWARDS  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #011  BELLATO  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #012  EDWARDS  KO  R2  8.9min
    How the 100-sim board works
    Elves Brener vs Josiah Harrell

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    PLAY

    63%

    Brener

    37%

    Harrell

    Best plays · Brener 63% · KO/TKO lean 48% · finish lean 65%. Not our ticket.

    48%

    KO/TKO

    17%

    SUB

    35%

    DEC

    0.5u · Brener ML · books Brener −115 / Harrell −105, not our ticket

    Finish-round histogram

    29R1
    24R2
    12R3
    35DEC

    Goes the distance 35%

    PATH TO VICTORY — BRENER • SLpM 4.76 SApM 5.86 (ufcstats) — Chute Boxe volume. Sub avg 0.0 • Reach 72" vs 68". Last-5: two KO wins (R1 Kruschewsky, R3 Kutateladze) then a 3-fight UFC skid • TD def 76% vs a tiny-sample wrestler-grappler — keep it standing and the 10/11 finish prior has to box • Sims favored striking at a higher pace (4.76 sig. str./min, 0.99 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — HARRELL • Tapology 6 KO / 4 SUB / 1 DEC in 11 wins — finish 10/11 is the prior, not the n=1 UFC line • ufcstats n=1 L KO R1 Smith (SApM 10.94, TD 0) is a 3:01 sample — blended, not treated as a rate • Last-5 also has SUB R1 Guillard and KO R2 Parks. Southpaw vs orthodox • Sims favored grappling at a measured pace (2.32 sig. str./min, 0 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 35 of 100 ended DEC; 48 KO/TKO; 17 SUB. 29 finishes in R1. KO/TKO share (career / last-5 + volume) ate the finish bucket.

    LIVE TRIGGER: If Harrell is still standing at 3:00 of R1, overlay him — his only UFC result is a R1 KO/TKO loss to Smith at 3:01.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  BRENER  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #002  BRENER  KO  R2  8.9min
    #003  HARRELL  SUB  R1  2.1min
    #004  HARRELL  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #005  HARRELL  KO  R1  1.2min
    #006  HARRELL  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #007  BRENER  KO  R2  9.2min
    #008  BRENER  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #009  BRENER  KO  R2  8.0min
    #010  BRENER  KO  R2  6.0min
    #011  BRENER  KO  R2  9.6min
    #012  HARRELL  KO  R2  8.4min
    How the 100-sim board works
    Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    PLAY

    39%

    Jackson

    61%

    Simon

    Best plays · Simon 61% · DEC lean 88% · distance 88%. Not our ticket.

    12%

    KO/TKO

    0%

    SUB

    88%

    DEC

    1.25u · Simon ML · books Jackson −186 / Simon +150, not our ticket

    Finish-round histogram

    4R1
    2R2
    6R3
    88DEC

    Goes the distance 88%

    PATH TO VICTORY — JACKSON • Reach 75" vs 69" (+6"). SApM 1.40 Def 60% (ufcstats) — low-absorb southpaw • Last-5 has KO R1 Blackshear and KO R1 Yahya if the first punch is there • TD avg 2.71 Acc 63%. They already fought: UFC 227 Simon W DEC, 7 TD — rematch range is the counter • Sims favored a mix of striking and wrestling at a measured pace (3.02 sig. str./min, 2.71 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — SIMON • TD avg 4.49 Acc 41% Def 76% (ufcstats) — wrestle the southpaw, same as 227 • Last-5: 4 DEC + KO R1 Basharat. Both just lost to Barcelos by DEC • Height 5'6" vs 5'10" — has to close the 6" reach or the cards follow Jackson volume • Sims favored wrestling at a measured pace (3.03 sig. str./min, 4.49 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 88 of 100 ended DEC; 12 KO/TKO; 0 SUB. 4 finishes in R1. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards.

    LIVE TRIGGER: If no KO in R1 (Jackson last-5 has two R1 KO/TKO), overlay DEC — both also just lost to Barcelos by DEC.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  SIMON  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #002  JACKSON  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #003  SIMON  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #004  SIMON  KO  R1  2.4min
    #005  JACKSON  KO  R3  11.7min
    #006  SIMON  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #007  JACKSON  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #008  SIMON  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #009  SIMON  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #010  SIMON  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #011  SIMON  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #012  SIMON  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    How the 100-sim board works
    John Castaneda vs Alatengheili

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    PASSFree preview

    76%

    Castaneda

    24%

    Alatengheili

    PASS — no clear angle in the 100.

    10%

    KO/TKO

    0%

    SUB

    90%

    DEC

    No ticket — books Castaneda −295 / Alateng +225, not our ticket

    Finish-round histogram

    3R1
    4R2
    3R3
    90DEC

    Goes the distance 90%

    PATH TO VICTORY — CASTANEDA • SLpM 4.95 Acc 51% vs Alateng Acc 32% (ufcstats) — volume on the feet • Reach 71" vs 66". Last-5 is 0 finishes in 5 (4 DEC + 1 draw) • TD def 75% / sub avg 0.1 — not a tap fight • Sims favored striking at a higher pace (4.95 sig. str./min, 1.49 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — ALATENG • TD avg 1.74 Acc 43% Def 75% (ufcstats) — grind, do not chase the KO • Last-5: 4 DEC + KO R1 Croom. Sub avg 0.0 • SApM 5.12 vs Castaneda SLpM 4.95 — he absorbs; he has to make it ugly and slow • Sims favored a mix of striking and wrestling at a measured pace (2.82 sig. str./min, 1.74 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 90 of 100 ended DEC; 10 KO/TKO; 0 SUB. 3 finishes in R1. Decision tape and defense rates put the mass on the cards.

    LIVE TRIGGER: If nobody is cut after R1, overlay goes-the-distance — 9 of 10 combined last-5s are DEC.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  ALATENG  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #002  CASTANEDA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #003  CASTANEDA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #004  CASTANEDA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #005  CASTANEDA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #006  CASTANEDA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #007  CASTANEDA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #008  CASTANEDA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #009  ALATENG  KO  R1  4.8min
    #010  CASTANEDA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #011  CASTANEDA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #012  CASTANEDA  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    How the 100-sim board works
    Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin Jauregui

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    PASS

    16%

    Demopoulos

    84%

    Jauregui

    PASS — no clear angle in the 100.

    52%

    KO/TKO

    8%

    SUB

    40%

    DEC

    No ticket — books Jauregui −900 / Demopoulos +575, not our ticket

    Finish-round histogram

    38R1
    15R2
    7R3
    40DEC

    Goes the distance 40%

    PATH TO VICTORY — DEMOPOULOS • Sub avg 0.4 (ufcstats) — the scramble is the only live finish path • TD def 26% vs Jauregui TD avg 0.00 — not a wrestle fight; she has to drag a striker into chaos • Age 37 vs 25. Last-5 is a 3-fight skid (Horth DEC, Alencar DEC, Amorim SUB R1) • Sims favored grappling at a measured pace (3.37 sig. str./min, 0.32 td/15). No finish method or round is called. PATH TO VICTORY — JAUREGUI • SLpM 6.64 vs Demopoulos Def 41% SApM 5.39 (ufcstats) — volume on the feet • Reach 64" vs 59" (+5"). Age 25 vs 37 • Last-5 has KO R2 Nunes and two R1 losses (SUB Souza, KO Gomes) — early variance is real. Books −900 is a label, not the ticket • Sims favored striking at a higher pace (6.64 sig. str./min, 0 td/15). No finish method or round is called. 100 sim breakdown 40 of 100 ended DEC; 52 KO/TKO; 8 SUB. 38 finishes in R1. KO/TKO share (career / last-5 + volume) ate the finish bucket.

    LIVE TRIGGER: If no SUB in R1 (Demopoulos last-5 has SUB R1 loss to Amorim; Jauregui last-5 has SUB R1 loss to Souza), overlay Jauregui on the feet — SLpM 6.64.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  JAUREGUI  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #002  JAUREGUI  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #003  JAUREGUI  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #004  JAUREGUI  KO  R1  1.3min
    #005  JAUREGUI  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #006  JAUREGUI  KO  R1  4.0min
    #007  JAUREGUI  KO  R3  13.9min
    #008  JAUREGUI  DEC  DEC  15.0min
    #009  JAUREGUI  KO  R3  10.6min
    #010  JAUREGUI  KO  R1  1.6min
    #011  DEMOPOULOS  KO  R1  0.7min
    #012  JAUREGUI  KO  R3  11.2min
    How the 100-sim board works

    n=100 Monte Carlo from public UFC.com / ufcstats / Tapology tape plus this-week news. Model output, not a guarantee, not a ticket we place. Research only.