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n=100 · Simcage Pro
100-sim board
UFC 333 desk. Numbers are model output, not a ticket we place.
Betting styles
model angle, not a ticket we place.
Safe
No safe parlay on this card.
Aggressive
- Lucindo · DEC. model angle, not a ticket we place.
Simcage Pro · n=100
LEAN41%
Evloev
59%
Volkanovski
LEAN: Alexander Volkanovski wins. Medium confidence. Backtest band for this angle 230/375 = 61.3%.
18%
KO/TKO
4%
SUB
78%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 78%
Model lean: Alexander Volkanovski wins (LEAN, MED). Win % shown = model analytic probability after shrinkage toward Featherweight averages; Volkanovski 0.592. Alexander Volkanovski: 18 bouts / 303.0 min / 3178 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 5.63 / SApM 3.40, def 59%, TD/15 1.63. UFC.com 28-4-0, form (newest first) WWLLW. Movsar Evloev: 10 bouts / 160.0 min / 1312 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 3.88 / SApM 3.08, def 61%, TD/15 3.92. UFC.com 20-0-0, form (newest first) WWWWW. n=100 (seed 20261025): Volkanovski 60, Evloev 40. KO/TKO 18, SUB 4, DEC 78. Pre-weigh-in (official weigh-in Thu Oct 22). Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 VOLKANOVSKI DEC R5 #002 VOLKANOVSKI DEC R5 #003 EVLOEV SUB R5 #004 VOLKANOVSKI KO R3 #005 VOLKANOVSKI DEC R5 #006 VOLKANOVSKI DEC R5 #007 EVLOEV DEC R5 #008 VOLKANOVSKI DEC R5 #009 EVLOEV DEC R5 #010 VOLKANOVSKI DEC R5 #011 VOLKANOVSKI KO R2 #012 EVLOEV DEC R5
Simcage Pro · n=100
LOW53%
Dvalishvili
47%
Yan
LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Merab Dvalishvili wins. Low confidence. Backtest band for this angle 117/240 = 48.8%. Backtest band under 60%.
12%
KO/TKO
4%
SUB
84%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 84%
Model lean: Merab Dvalishvili wins (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). Win % shown = model analytic probability after shrinkage toward Bantamweight averages; Dvalishvili 0.525. Petr Yan: 16 bouts / 282.1 min / 2652 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 4.90 / SApM 4.14, def 59%, TD/15 1.68. UFC.com 20-5-0, form (newest first) WWWWL. Merab Dvalishvili: 17 bouts / 299.1 min / 3181 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 4.29 / SApM 2.95, def 54%, TD/15 5.24. UFC.com 21-5-0, form (newest first) LWWWW. n=100 (seed 20261026): Yan 38, Dvalishvili 62. KO/TKO 12, SUB 4, DEC 84. Pre-weigh-in (official weigh-in Thu Oct 22). Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 YAN KO R1 #002 DVALISHVILI DEC R5 #003 YAN DEC R5 #004 YAN DEC R5 #005 DVALISHVILI DEC R5 #006 DVALISHVILI DEC R5 #007 DVALISHVILI DEC R5 #008 YAN KO R2 #009 DVALISHVILI DEC R5 #010 YAN DEC R5 #011 DVALISHVILI DEC R5 #012 DVALISHVILI DEC R5
Simcage Pro · n=100
LOWFree preview53%
Temirov
47%
Kavanagh
LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Goes the distance. Low confidence. Backtest band for this angle 98/177 = 55.4%. Backtest band under 60%.
37%
KO/TKO
8%
SUB
55%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 55%
Model lean: Goes the distance (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). Win % shown = model analytic probability after shrinkage toward Flyweight averages; Temirov 0.533. Lone'er Kavanagh: 6 bouts / 80.7 min / 660 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 3.83 / SApM 3.73, def 54%, TD/15 1.41. UFC.com 10-2-0, form (newest first) LWLWW. Ramazan Temirov: 3 bouts / 22.2 min / 255 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 3.79 / SApM 3.50, def 60%, TD/15 1.51. UFC.com 20-3-0, form (newest first) WWW. n=100 (seed 20261027): Kavanagh 54, Temirov 46. KO/TKO 37, SUB 8, DEC 55. Pre-weigh-in (official weigh-in Thu Oct 22). Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 KAVANAGH DEC R3 #002 KAVANAGH KO R1 #003 KAVANAGH DEC R3 #004 KAVANAGH DEC R3 #005 TEMIROV DEC R3 #006 KAVANAGH DEC R3 #007 TEMIROV DEC R3 #008 KAVANAGH DEC R3 #009 KAVANAGH DEC R3 #010 KAVANAGH SUB R3 #011 KAVANAGH KO R3 #012 TEMIROV DEC R3
Simcage Pro · n=100
LEAN42%
Kuniev
58%
Volkov
LEAN: Alexander Volkov wins. Medium confidence. Backtest band for this angle 230/375 = 61.3%.
47%
KO/TKO
11%
SUB
42%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 42%
Model lean: Alexander Volkov wins (LEAN, MED). Win % shown = model analytic probability after shrinkage toward Heavyweight averages; Volkov 0.577. Alexander Volkov: 19 bouts / 246.1 min / 2168 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 4.75 / SApM 3.12, def 54%, TD/15 0.74. UFC.com 40-11-0, form (newest first) WWLWW. Rizvan Kuniev: 5 bouts / 57.2 min / 450 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 3.84 / SApM 2.81, def 50%, TD/15 1.03. UFC.com 14-3-1, form (newest first) WWLWW. n=100 (seed 20261028): Volkov 54, Kuniev 46. KO/TKO 47, SUB 11, DEC 42. Pre-weigh-in (official weigh-in Thu Oct 22). Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 KUNIEV KO R3 #002 KUNIEV KO R1 #003 VOLKOV KO R2 #004 VOLKOV KO R3 #005 KUNIEV DEC R3 #006 KUNIEV KO R3 #007 VOLKOV KO R3 #008 VOLKOV SUB R2 #009 KUNIEV DEC R3 #010 KUNIEV SUB R1 #011 VOLKOV DEC R3 #012 VOLKOV KO R1
Simcage Pro · n=100
LOW60%
Pico
40%
Keita
LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Aaron Pico wins. Low confidence. Backtest band for this angle 230/375 = 61.3%. Thin sample (fails ≥3 bouts / ≥150 sig. att. gate).
39%
KO/TKO
12%
SUB
49%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 49%
Model lean: Aaron Pico wins (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). Win % shown = model analytic probability after shrinkage toward Featherweight averages; Pico 0.598. Aaron Pico: 2 bouts / 18.4 min / 210 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 4.37 / SApM 3.65, def 51%, TD/15 2.76. UFC.com 14-5-0, form (newest first) WL. Losene Keita: 2 bouts / 17.9 min / 149 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 3.84 / SApM 3.85, def 61%, TD/15 1.24. UFC.com 17-2-0, form (newest first) WL. n=100 (seed 20261029): Pico 55, Keita 45. KO/TKO 39, SUB 12, DEC 49. Pre-weigh-in (official weigh-in Thu Oct 22). Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 PICO SUB R3 #002 PICO KO R3 #003 KEITA KO R1 #004 PICO SUB R2 #005 KEITA KO R1 #006 PICO DEC R3 #007 PICO DEC R3 #008 PICO SUB R2 #009 PICO DEC R3 #010 PICO DEC R3 #011 PICO KO R2 #012 PICO DEC R3
Simcage Pro · n=100
LOWFree preview53%
Reyes
47%
Murzakanov
LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Inside the distance. Low confidence. Backtest band for this angle 88/158 = 55.7%. Backtest band under 60%.
63%
KO/TKO
5%
SUB
32%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 32%
Model lean: Inside the distance (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). Win % shown = model analytic probability after shrinkage toward Light Heavyweight averages; Reyes 0.528. Azamat Murzakanov: 8 bouts / 66.3 min / 518 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 3.96 / SApM 3.33, def 55%, TD/15 1.03. UFC.com 16-1-0, form (newest first) LWWWW. Dominick Reyes: 15 bouts / 117.8 min / 1096 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 4.48 / SApM 3.43, def 50%, TD/15 0.65. UFC.com 16-5-0, form (newest first) WLWWW. n=100 (seed 20261030): Murzakanov 44, Reyes 56. KO/TKO 63, SUB 5, DEC 32. Pre-weigh-in (official weigh-in Thu Oct 22). Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 REYES KO R3 #002 MURZAKANOV SUB R2 #003 MURZAKANOV KO R1 #004 MURZAKANOV DEC R3 #005 MURZAKANOV KO R1 #006 REYES DEC R3 #007 MURZAKANOV KO R1 #008 REYES KO R1 #009 REYES KO R2 #010 MURZAKANOV DEC R3 #011 MURZAKANOV KO R3 #012 REYES KO R3
Simcage Pro · n=100
LEAN49%
Yakhyaev
51%
Krylov
LEAN: Inside the distance. Medium confidence. Backtest band for this angle 20/33 = 60.6%.
42%
KO/TKO
44%
SUB
14%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 14%
Model lean: Inside the distance (LEAN, MED). Win % shown = model analytic probability after shrinkage toward Light Heavyweight averages; Krylov 0.511. Nikita Krylov: 22 bouts / 157.3 min / 1271 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 4.13 / SApM 2.95, def 49%, TD/15 1.98. UFC.com 31-12-0, form (newest first) LWLLW. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev: 4 bouts / 4.0 min / 51 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 3.80 / SApM 3.40, def 53%, TD/15 2.03. UFC.com 10-0-0, form (newest first) WWWW. n=100 (seed 20261031): Krylov 55, Yakhyaev 45. KO/TKO 42, SUB 44, DEC 14. Pre-weigh-in (official weigh-in Thu Oct 22). Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 KRYLOV SUB R1 #002 YAKHYAEV KO R1 #003 YAKHYAEV KO R1 #004 YAKHYAEV SUB R1 #005 KRYLOV KO R2 #006 KRYLOV DEC R3 #007 YAKHYAEV KO R1 #008 KRYLOV SUB R2 #009 KRYLOV SUB R1 #010 KRYLOV SUB R1 #011 YAKHYAEV KO R1 #012 KRYLOV SUB R1
Simcage Pro · n=100
LEAN57%
Rowston
43%
Magomedov
LEAN: Inside the distance. Medium confidence. Backtest band for this angle 85/120 = 70.8%.
43%
KO/TKO
27%
SUB
30%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 30%
Model lean: Inside the distance (LEAN, MED). Win % shown = model analytic probability after shrinkage toward Middleweight averages; Rowston 0.569. Abus Magomedov: 8 bouts / 78.1 min / 491 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 3.17 / SApM 3.33, def 56%, TD/15 2.07. UFC.com 29-7-1, form (newest first) WLWWW. Cam Rowston: 5 bouts / 44.8 min / 422 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 3.86 / SApM 2.80, def 53%, TD/15 1.44. UFC.com 15-3-0, form (newest first) WWWWL. n=100 (seed 20261032): Magomedov 46, Rowston 54. KO/TKO 43, SUB 27, DEC 30. Pre-weigh-in (official weigh-in Thu Oct 22). Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 ROWSTON KO R2 #002 MAGOMEDOV DEC R3 #003 ROWSTON KO R1 #004 ROWSTON KO R1 #005 ROWSTON DEC R3 #006 MAGOMEDOV DEC R3 #007 ROWSTON SUB R3 #008 MAGOMEDOV SUB R1 #009 MAGOMEDOV KO R2 #010 MAGOMEDOV SUB R2 #011 ROWSTON KO R1 #012 MAGOMEDOV SUB R1
Simcage Pro · n=100
LOW47%
Aliev
53%
Dawson
LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Goes the distance. Low confidence. Backtest band for this angle 98/177 = 55.4%. Backtest band under 60%.
11%
KO/TKO
32%
SUB
57%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 57%
Model lean: Goes the distance (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). Win % shown = model analytic probability after shrinkage toward Lightweight averages; Dawson 0.529. Grant Dawson: 16 bouts / 175.9 min / 1081 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 3.23 / SApM 2.49, def 47%, TD/15 3.08. UFC.com 24-3-1, form (newest first) WLWWW. Nurullo Aliev: 5 bouts / 64.6 min / 335 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 2.88 / SApM 2.52, def 56%, TD/15 2.59. UFC.com 12-0-0, form (newest first) WWWWW. n=100 (seed 20261033): Dawson 51, Aliev 49. KO/TKO 11, SUB 32, DEC 57. Pre-weigh-in (official weigh-in Thu Oct 22). Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 ALIEV DEC R3 #002 DAWSON DEC R3 #003 ALIEV DEC R3 #004 DAWSON DEC R3 #005 DAWSON DEC R3 #006 ALIEV DEC R3 #007 ALIEV KO R3 #008 DAWSON SUB R2 #009 DAWSON DEC R3 #010 ALIEV DEC R3 #011 ALIEV KO R3 #012 ALIEV SUB R1
Simcage Pro · n=100
LOW51%
Thicknesse
49%
Chopurov
LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Goes the distance. Low confidence. Backtest band for this angle 79/140 = 56.4%. UFC debut: Asaf Chopurov; class-average inputs, no backtest basis.
16%
KO/TKO
16%
SUB
68%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 68%
Model lean: Goes the distance (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). Win % shown = model analytic probability after shrinkage toward Bantamweight averages; Thicknesse 0.507. Colby Thicknesse: 3 bouts / 45.0 min / 355 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 3.49 / SApM 3.35, def 55%, TD/15 1.20. UFC.com 9-1-0, form (newest first) WLW. Asaf Chopurov: no UFC/DWCS fight stats. Modelled at the Bantamweight average (n=0); no sample invented. UFC.com: Octagon debut Oct. 24, 2026. n=100 (seed 20261034): Thicknesse 47, Chopurov 53. KO/TKO 16, SUB 16, DEC 68. Pre-weigh-in (official weigh-in Thu Oct 22). Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 THICKNESSE SUB R2 #002 CHOPUROV KO R1 #003 CHOPUROV KO R3 #004 THICKNESSE SUB R2 #005 THICKNESSE DEC R3 #006 THICKNESSE DEC R3 #007 CHOPUROV DEC R3 #008 CHOPUROV DEC R3 #009 THICKNESSE SUB R2 #010 THICKNESSE DEC R3 #011 THICKNESSE DEC R3 #012 THICKNESSE DEC R3
Simcage Pro · n=100
LOW29%
Vagaev
71%
Malkoun
LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Jacob Malkoun wins. Low confidence. Backtest band for this angle 159/230 = 69.1%. Thin sample (fails ≥3 bouts / ≥150 sig. att. gate).
16%
KO/TKO
13%
SUB
71%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 71%
Model lean: Jacob Malkoun wins (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). Win % shown = model analytic probability after shrinkage toward Middleweight averages; Malkoun 0.710. Abubakar Vagaev: 1 bouts / 15.0 min / 70 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 3.00 / SApM 3.08, def 56%, TD/15 2.01. UFC.com 25-4-0, form (newest first) W. Jacob Malkoun: 9 bouts / 100.2 min / 746 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 3.88 / SApM 2.69, def 55%, TD/15 3.94. UFC.com 10-3-0, form (newest first) WWWLW. n=100 (seed 20261035): Vagaev 31, Malkoun 69. KO/TKO 16, SUB 13, DEC 71. Pre-weigh-in (official weigh-in Thu Oct 22). Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 MALKOUN DEC R3 #002 VAGAEV DEC R3 #003 MALKOUN DEC R3 #004 VAGAEV DEC R3 #005 VAGAEV DEC R3 #006 MALKOUN DEC R3 #007 MALKOUN DEC R3 #008 MALKOUN DEC R3 #009 MALKOUN DEC R3 #010 MALKOUN SUB R1 #011 MALKOUN DEC R3 #012 MALKOUN DEC R3
Simcage Pro · n=100
LEAN59%
Oki
41%
Santos
LEAN: Bolaji Oki wins. Medium confidence. Backtest band for this angle 230/375 = 61.3%.
45%
KO/TKO
5%
SUB
50%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 50%
Model lean: Bolaji Oki wins (LEAN, MED). Win % shown = model analytic probability after shrinkage toward Featherweight averages; Oki 0.586. Bolaji Oki: 6 bouts / 58.8 min / 834 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 5.11 / SApM 4.46, def 60%, TD/15 1.31. UFC.com 10-4-0, form (newest first) LLWLW. Daniel Santos: 6 bouts / 69.3 min / 882 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 4.54 / SApM 4.66, def 51%, TD/15 2.14. UFC.com 14-3-0, form (newest first) LWWWW. n=100 (seed 20261036): Oki 68, Santos 32. KO/TKO 45, SUB 5, DEC 50. Pre-weigh-in (official weigh-in Thu Oct 22). Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 OKI DEC R3 #002 OKI KO R2 #003 OKI DEC R3 #004 OKI DEC R3 #005 OKI DEC R3 #006 OKI KO R3 #007 OKI KO R1 #008 OKI KO R3 #009 SANTOS KO R1 #010 SANTOS KO R3 #011 SANTOS SUB R2 #012 OKI KO R2
Simcage Pro · n=100
LOW36%
Steele
64%
Gugnon
LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Noah Gugnon wins. Low confidence. Backtest band for this angle 230/375 = 61.3%. Thin sample (fails ≥3 bouts / ≥150 sig. att. gate).
23%
KO/TKO
44%
SUB
33%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 33%
Model lean: Noah Gugnon wins (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). Win % shown = model analytic probability after shrinkage toward Lightweight averages; Gugnon 0.640. Kody Steele: 3 bouts / 28.1 min / 328 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 3.62 / SApM 4.37, def 53%, TD/15 1.45. UFC.com 8-1-0, form (newest first) WL. Noah Gugnon: 1 bouts / 1.4 min / 11 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 3.51 / SApM 3.53, def 58%, TD/15 1.59. UFC.com 10-2-0, form (newest first) W. n=100 (seed 20261037): Steele 40, Gugnon 60. KO/TKO 23, SUB 44, DEC 33. Pre-weigh-in (official weigh-in Thu Oct 22). Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 GUGNON SUB R1 #002 GUGNON DEC R3 #003 GUGNON SUB R1 #004 GUGNON SUB R3 #005 STEELE SUB R1 #006 GUGNON SUB R1 #007 STEELE DEC R3 #008 GUGNON KO R1 #009 GUGNON SUB R1 #010 STEELE SUB R1 #011 STEELE SUB R2 #012 STEELE DEC R3
Simcage Pro · n=100
PLAY71%
Lucindo
29%
Caliari
Best plays · PLAY: Iasmin Lucindo wins. High confidence. Backtest band for this angle 159/230 = 69.1%.
4%
KO/TKO
29%
SUB
67%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 67%
Model lean: Iasmin Lucindo wins (PLAY, HIGH). Win % shown = model analytic probability after shrinkage toward Women's Strawweight averages; Lucindo 0.707. Iasmin Lucindo: 7 bouts / 98.7 min / 699 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 3.52 / SApM 3.25, def 61%, TD/15 1.94. UFC.com 18-6-0, form (newest first) WLWWW. Nicolle Caliari: 4 bouts / 44.4 min / 322 sig att. Shrunk SLpM 3.53 / SApM 4.68, def 53%, TD/15 2.23. UFC.com 9-4-0, form (newest first) WLLW. n=100 (seed 20261038): Lucindo 70, Caliari 30. KO/TKO 4, SUB 29, DEC 67. Pre-weigh-in (official weigh-in Thu Oct 22). Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 CALIARI SUB R2 #002 LUCINDO DEC R3 #003 CALIARI KO R1 #004 LUCINDO SUB R1 #005 LUCINDO DEC R3 #006 CALIARI SUB R1 #007 LUCINDO DEC R3 #008 CALIARI SUB R2 #009 LUCINDO DEC R3 #010 LUCINDO DEC R3 #011 CALIARI SUB R1 #012 CALIARI SUB R1
n=100 Monte Carlo from public UFC.com / ufcstats / Tapology tape plus this-week news. Model output, not a guarantee, not a ticket we place. Research only.