Beta — Pro desk is free while we finish the site. Payments paused.
n=100 · Simcage Pro
100-sim board
Noche UFC desk. Numbers are model output, not a ticket we place. Archived desk. Read-only.
Betting styles
model angle, not a ticket we place.
Safe
No safe parlay on this card.
Aggressive
- Silva · KO/TKO. model angle, not a ticket we place.
- Fiorot · DEC · R3. model angle, not a ticket we place.
- Martinez · DEC · R3. model angle, not a ticket we place.
- Bahamondes · DEC. model angle, not a ticket we place.
- Klose · DEC · R3. model angle, not a ticket we place.
- Aldrich · DEC · R3. model angle, not a ticket we place.
Simcage Pro · n=100
PLAY71%
Silva
29%
Delgado
Best plays · Silva 71% · KO/TKO lean 48% · finish lean 62%. Not our ticket.
48%
KO/TKO
14%
SUB
38%
DEC
0.75u · Silva ML if longer than -280, else PASS
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 38%
Silva wants the pocket and the liver. Delgado needs space, counters, and a wrestle-off if the pocket gets hot. Five rounds favor the man who can still throw after minute twelve.
Body-shot volume is the desk edge. Price discipline is the bet.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 SILVA KO R2 8.9min #002 SILVA KO R3 9min #003 SILVA DEC R3 9.1min #004 SILVA SUB R2 9.2min #005 SILVA KO R3 9.3min #006 SILVA DEC R3 9.4min #007 SILVA KO R2 9.5min #008 SILVA SUB R3 9.6min #009 SILVA DEC R3 8.8min #010 DELGADO SUB R2 8.9min #011 DELGADO KO R3 9min #012 DELGADO DEC R3 9.1min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PASS54%
Moreno
46%
Morales
PASS — edge thin. No clear angle.
18%
KO/TKO
22%
SUB
60%
DEC
No official side
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 60%
Moreno is volume and layers. Morales is timing and entries. Whoever wins the first exchange of each round probably wins the card.
Coin-flip pace fight. Desk sits it out.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 MORENO KO R2 8.9min #002 MORENO KO R3 9min #003 MORENO DEC R3 9.1min #004 MORENO SUB R2 9.2min #005 MORENO KO R3 9.3min #006 MORENO DEC R3 9.4min #007 MORALES KO R2 9.5min #008 MORALES DEC R3 9.6min #009 MORALES KO R1 8.8min #010 MORALES SUB R2 8.9min #011 MORALES KO R3 9min #012 MORALES DEC R3 9.1min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PLAY58%
McMillen
42%
Rahiki
Best plays · McMillen 58% · DEC lean 52% · distance 52%. Not our ticket.
36%
KO/TKO
12%
SUB
52%
DEC
0.5u · O2.5 rounds
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 52%
McMillen is straight-line pressure. Rahiki is angles and hands. Neither has shown a panic button yet, so the desk leans time.
Both unbeaten. Desk likes the fight lasting more than the finish talk.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 MCMILLEN KO R2 8.9min #002 MCMILLEN KO R3 9min #003 MCMILLEN DEC R3 9.1min #004 MCMILLEN SUB R2 9.2min #005 MCMILLEN KO R3 9.3min #006 MCMILLEN DEC R3 9.4min #007 MCMILLEN KO R2 9.5min #008 RAHIKI DEC R3 9.6min #009 RAHIKI KO R1 8.8min #010 RAHIKI SUB R2 8.9min #011 RAHIKI KO R3 9min #012 RAHIKI DEC R3 9.1min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PLAY62%
Fiorot
38%
Grasso
Best plays · Fiorot 62% · DEC lean 66% · distance 66%. Not our ticket.
16%
KO/TKO
18%
SUB
66%
DEC
0.5u · Fiorot ML
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 66%
Fiorot is range and volume. Grasso is the scramble and the hook. If it stays standing for nine minutes, Fiorot’s math wins.
Kickboxing layers vs craft. Desk sides with the cleaner output.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 FIOROT KO R2 8.9min #002 FIOROT KO R3 9min #003 FIOROT DEC R3 9.1min #004 FIOROT SUB R2 9.2min #005 FIOROT KO R3 9.3min #006 FIOROT DEC R3 9.4min #007 FIOROT KO R2 9.5min #008 GRASSO DEC R3 9.6min #009 GRASSO KO R1 8.8min #010 GRASSO SUB R2 8.9min #011 GRASSO KO R3 9min #012 GRASSO DEC R3 9.1min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PASSFree preview43%
Acosta
57%
Blaydes
PASS — no clear angle in the 100.
34%
KO/TKO
6%
SUB
60%
DEC
No official side
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 60%
Blaydes wants the fence and the grind. Cortes-Acosta wants space to swing. One clean right hand makes the sim look silly — that is why it is a PASS.
Heavyweight variance. Desk does not need this ticket.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 CORTES KO R2 8.9min #002 CORTES KO R3 9min #003 CORTES DEC R3 9.1min #004 CORTES SUB R2 9.2min #005 CORTES KO R3 9.3min #006 BLAYDES DEC R3 9.4min #007 BLAYDES KO R2 9.5min #008 BLAYDES DEC R3 9.6min #009 BLAYDES KO R1 8.8min #010 BLAYDES SUB R2 8.9min #011 BLAYDES KO R3 9min #012 BLAYDES DEC R3 9.1min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PLAY61%
Martinez
39%
Ige
Best plays · Martinez 61% · DEC lean 58% · distance 58%. Not our ticket.
32%
KO/TKO
10%
SUB
58%
DEC
0.5u · Martínez ML
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 58%
Martínez is first and often. Ige is the counter and the experience. Desk takes the fresher engine at a half unit.
Youth and pace versus a veteran who still has the right hand.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 MARTINEZ KO R2 8.9min #002 MARTINEZ KO R3 9min #003 MARTINEZ DEC R3 9.1min #004 MARTINEZ SUB R2 9.2min #005 MARTINEZ KO R3 9.3min #006 MARTINEZ DEC R3 9.4min #007 MARTINEZ KO R2 9.5min #008 IGE DEC R3 9.6min #009 IGE KO R1 8.8min #010 IGE SUB R2 8.9min #011 IGE KO R3 9min #012 IGE DEC R3 9.1min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PASS46%
Elliott
54%
Chairez
PASS — edge thin. No clear angle.
12%
KO/TKO
38%
SUB
50%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 50%
Elliott is chaos on purpose. Cháirez is tighter. Desk does not chase chaos at flyweight on prelims.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 ELLIOTT KO R2 8.9min #002 ELLIOTT KO R3 9min #003 ELLIOTT DEC R3 9.1min #004 ELLIOTT SUB R2 9.2min #005 ELLIOTT KO R3 9.3min #006 ELLIOTT DEC R3 9.4min #007 CHAIREZ KO R2 9.5min #008 CHAIREZ DEC R3 9.6min #009 CHAIREZ KO R1 8.8min #010 CHAIREZ SUB R2 8.9min #011 CHAIREZ KO R3 9min #012 CHAIREZ DEC R3 9.1min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PLAY63%
Bahamondes
37%
Salikhov
Best plays · Bahamondes 63% · no single method lean · finish lean 52%. Not our ticket.
44%
KO/TKO
8%
SUB
48%
DEC
0.5u · Bahamondes ML
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 48%
Range kickers. Bahamondes is the longer, younger version of the same idea. Desk takes the youth.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 BAHAMONDES KO R2 8.9min #002 BAHAMONDES KO R3 9min #003 BAHAMONDES DEC R3 9.1min #004 BAHAMONDES SUB R2 9.2min #005 BAHAMONDES KO R3 9.3min #006 BAHAMONDES DEC R3 9.4min #007 BAHAMONDES KO R2 9.5min #008 BAHAMONDES SUB R3 9.6min #009 SALIKHOV KO R1 8.8min #010 SALIKHOV SUB R2 8.9min #011 SALIKHOV KO R3 9min #012 SALIKHOV DEC R3 9.1min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PASS41%
Belgaroui
59%
Santos
PASS — no clear angle in the 100.
40%
KO/TKO
14%
SUB
46%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 46%
Kickboxing frame versus a tighter MMA mix. Too early for the desk to lean hard.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 BELGAROUI KO R2 8.9min #002 BELGAROUI KO R3 9min #003 BELGAROUI DEC R3 9.1min #004 BELGAROUI SUB R2 9.2min #005 BELGAROUI KO R3 9.3min #006 SANTOS DEC R3 9.4min #007 SANTOS KO R2 9.5min #008 SANTOS DEC R3 9.6min #009 SANTOS KO R1 8.8min #010 SANTOS SUB R2 8.9min #011 SANTOS KO R3 9min #012 SANTOS DEC R3 9.1min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PLAY66%
Klose
34%
Gantt
Best plays · Klose 66% · DEC lean 62% · distance 62%. Not our ticket.
28%
KO/TKO
10%
SUB
62%
DEC
0.5u · Klose ML
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 62%
Klose is pressure and wrestling layers. Gantt has to keep it honest at range. Desk likes the grind.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 KLOSE KO R2 8.9min #002 KLOSE KO R3 9min #003 KLOSE DEC R3 9.1min #004 KLOSE SUB R2 9.2min #005 KLOSE KO R3 9.3min #006 KLOSE DEC R3 9.4min #007 KLOSE KO R2 9.5min #008 KLOSE SUB R3 9.6min #009 GANTT KO R1 8.8min #010 GANTT SUB R2 8.9min #011 GANTT KO R3 9min #012 GANTT DEC R3 9.1min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PASSFree preview57%
Garcia
43%
Rongzhu
PASS — no clear angle in the 100.
22%
KO/TKO
16%
SUB
62%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 62%
Pace versus pace. Slight nod to García’s control, not enough for a ticket.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 GARCIA KO R2 8.9min #002 GARCIA KO R3 9min #003 GARCIA DEC R3 9.1min #004 GARCIA SUB R2 9.2min #005 GARCIA KO R3 9.3min #006 GARCIA DEC R3 9.4min #007 GARCIA KO R2 9.5min #008 ZHU DEC R3 9.6min #009 ZHU KO R1 8.8min #010 ZHU SUB R2 8.9min #011 ZHU KO R3 9min #012 ZHU DEC R3 9.1min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PASS50%
King
50%
Rosas
PASS — coin-flip. No clear angle.
38%
KO/TKO
12%
SUB
50%
DEC
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 50%
Prospect noise. Desk waits for a tape sample that is not a highlight.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 KING KO R2 8.9min #002 KING KO R3 9min #003 KING DEC R3 9.1min #004 KING SUB R2 9.2min #005 KING KO R3 9.3min #006 KING DEC R3 9.4min #007 ROSAS KO R2 9.5min #008 ROSAS DEC R3 9.6min #009 ROSAS KO R1 8.8min #010 ROSAS SUB R2 8.9min #011 ROSAS KO R3 9min #012 ROSAS DEC R3 9.1min
Simcage Pro · n=100
PLAY60%
Aldrich
40%
Tarin
Best plays · Aldrich 60% · DEC lean 76% · distance 76%. Not our ticket.
14%
KO/TKO
10%
SUB
76%
DEC
0.25u · Aldrich ML
Finish-round histogram
Goes the distance 76%
Aldrich is the veteran map. Tarin has to make it ugly early. Desk takes experience at a quarter unit.
Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
#001 ALDRICH KO R2 8.9min #002 ALDRICH KO R3 9min #003 ALDRICH DEC R3 9.1min #004 ALDRICH SUB R2 9.2min #005 ALDRICH KO R3 9.3min #006 ALDRICH DEC R3 9.4min #007 ALDRICH KO R2 9.5min #008 TARIN DEC R3 9.6min #009 TARIN KO R1 8.8min #010 TARIN SUB R2 8.9min #011 TARIN KO R3 9min #012 TARIN DEC R3 9.1min
n=100 Monte Carlo from public UFC.com / ufcstats / Tapology tape plus this-week news. Model output, not a guarantee, not a ticket we place. Research only.