100-sim board

LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Inside the distance. Low confidence. Backtest band 105/177 = 59.3%. Backtest band for this angle is under 60%.

Model lean: Inside the distance (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). The win % shown is the model's analytic probability after shrinkage toward Lightweight averages (Nolan 0.506). PATH TO VICTORY • Moicano: 11 of 21 pro wins by submission (KO 2 / SUB 11 / DEC 8); lands 4.10 sig/min; Nolan absorbs 3.74 and defends 49%; wrestling: 1.68 TD/15 at 40% accuracy vs Nolan's 58% TD def. • Nolan: 5 each by KO/TKO and decision of 11 pro wins (KO 5 / SUB 1 / DEC 5); lands 4.84 sig/min; Moicano absorbs 3.55 and defends 60%; sub threat: 1.35 attempts/15; power: 0.54 KD/15. STAT EDGES (Moicano v Nolan; UFC.com athlete pages, fetched Oct 21, 2026; TD acc from UFC stats feed per-fight totals; ← = edge) SLpM 4.10 v 4.84 ← Nolan | SApM 3.55 v 3.74 ← Moicano | Str acc 49% v 46% ← Moicano | Str def 60% v 49% ← Moicano | TD/15 1.68 v 1.08 ← Moicano | TD acc 40% v 27% ← Moicano | TD def 64% v 58% ← Moicano | Sub/15 0.56 v 1.35 ← Nolan TALE OF THE TAPE (UFC feed): Moicano age 37, 5'11", reach 72", Orthodox; Nolan age 26, 6'3", reach 73", Southpaw RECENT FORM (UFC.com, newest first) • Renato Moicano (WLLWW): (4/4/26) Moicano submitted Chris Duncan via rear-naked choke at 3:14 of the second round / (6/28/25) Moicano lost a three round unanimous decision to Beneil Dariush / (1/18/25) Moicano was submitted by Islam Makhachev at 4:05 of the first round in a bout for the UFC lightweight title • Tom Nolan (WWWWW): (6/6/26) Nolan won a three round unanimous decision over Farès Ziam / (9/27/25) Nolan submitted Charlie Campbell via rear-naked choke at 4:08 of the first round / (2/8/25) Nolan won a three round unanimous decision over Viacheslav Borshchev NEWS • UFC.com, Sep 29, 2026 (card announcement): Moicano's fifth UFC main event and his second Meta APEX headliner of 2026; the article cites his wins over Chris Duncan, Benoît Saint Denis and Jalin Turner. • UFC.com, Sep 29, 2026 (card announcement): Nolan is a Dana White's Contender Series signee on five straight wins, including Viacheslav Borshchev, Charlie Campbell and Farès Ziam, with six finishes (five KOs, one submission). • UFC.com event page (fetched Oct 21, 2026): Moicano is ranked #12 and Nolan #14 at lightweight. The Sep 29 article had Moicano at No. 11. Five-round non-title main event. MODEL INPUTS • Renato Moicano: 20 bouts, 188.0 min, 1567 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 3.96, SApM 3.54, TD/15 1.66. • Tom Nolan: 7 bouts, 55.4 min, 586 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 4.14, SApM 3.62, TD/15 1.36. n=100 (seed 20261032): Moicano 51, Nolan 49. KO/TKO 16, SUB 43, DEC 41. Built before weigh-ins; the official weigh-in date was not yet posted on UFC.com on Oct 21. This is model output, not betting advice. No odds were used.

#001  NOLAN  KO  R2
#002  MOICANO  SUB  R3
#003  MOICANO  SUB  R4
#004  MOICANO  SUB  R3
#005  NOLAN  SUB  R3
#006  NOLAN  DEC  R5
#007  NOLAN  SUB  R1
#008  MOICANO  SUB  R1
#009  NOLAN  KO  R1
#010  MOICANO  DEC  R5
#011  MOICANO  SUB  R1
#012  NOLAN  KO  R3

LEAN: Randy Brown wins. Medium confidence. Backtest band 230/375 = 61.3%.

Model lean: Randy Brown wins (LEAN, MED). The win % shown is the model's analytic probability after shrinkage toward Welterweight averages (Brown 0.555). PATH TO VICTORY • Brown: 8 of 20 pro wins by KO/TKO (KO 8 / SUB 5 / DEC 7); lands 4.39 sig/min; Leal absorbs 7.78 and defends 49%. • Leal: 11 of 23 pro wins by KO/TKO (KO 11 / SUB 2 / DEC 10); lands 8.75 sig/min; Brown absorbs 3.35 and defends 54%. STAT EDGES (Brown v Leal; UFC.com athlete pages, fetched Oct 21, 2026; TD acc from UFC stats feed per-fight totals; ← = edge) SLpM 4.39 v 8.75 ← Leal | SApM 3.35 v 7.78 ← Brown | Str acc 47% v 47% | Str def 54% v 49% ← Brown | TD/15 0.71 v 0.43 ← Brown | TD acc 34% v 11% ← Brown | TD def 75% v 91% ← Leal | Sub/15 0.52 v 0.00 ← Brown TALE OF THE TAPE (UFC feed): Brown age 36, 6'3", reach 78", Orthodox; Leal age 32, 5'11", reach 74", Orthodox RECENT FORM (UFC.com, newest first) • Randy Brown (LLWLW): (4/11/26) Brown lost a three round unanimous decision to Kevin Holland / (11/8/25) Brown was knocked out by Gabriel Bonfim at 1:40 of the second round / (4/26/25) Brown knocked out Nicolas Dalby at 1:39 of the second round • Carlos Leal (WLWL): (2/21/26) Leal won a three round unanimous decision over Chidi Njokuani / (7/26/25) Leal was knocked out by Muslim Salikhov at :42 of the first round / (3/8/25) Leal stopped Alex Morono via strikes at 4:16 of the first round NEWS • UFC.com, Sep 29, 2026 (card announcement): billed as a welterweight bout between veterans. Brown (20-8) fights out of Queens, N.Y., by way of Spanish Town, Jamaica; Leal (23-7) fights out of Curitiba, Brazil. MODEL INPUTS • Randy Brown: 22 bouts, 231.2 min, 2158 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 4.18, SApM 3.36, TD/15 0.88. • Carlos Leal: 4 bouts, 35.0 min, 651 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 5.35, SApM 5.00, TD/15 1.13. n=100 (seed 20261033): Brown 55, Leal 45. KO/TKO 29, SUB 16, DEC 55. Built before weigh-ins; the official weigh-in date was not yet posted on UFC.com on Oct 21. This is model output, not betting advice. No odds were used.

#001  LEAL  DEC  R3
#002  BROWN  DEC  R3
#003  LEAL  DEC  R3
#004  BROWN  DEC  R3
#005  BROWN  DEC  R3
#006  LEAL  DEC  R3
#007  LEAL  KO  R2
#008  BROWN  DEC  R3
#009  BROWN  SUB  R3
#010  LEAL  SUB  R2
#011  BROWN  DEC  R3
#012  LEAL  KO  R1

LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Goes the distance. Low confidence. Backtest band 31/54 = 57.4%. Backtest band for this angle is under 60%.

Model lean: Goes the distance (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). The win % shown is the model's analytic probability after shrinkage toward Women's Bantamweight averages (Yana 0.525). PATH TO VICTORY • Yana: 9 of 17 pro wins by decision (KO 7 / SUB 1 / DEC 9); lands 4.41 sig/min; Luana absorbs 2.45 and defends 64%. • Luana: 5 each by submission and decision of 11 pro wins (KO 1 / SUB 5 / DEC 5); lands 2.53 sig/min; Yana absorbs 3.12 and defends 53%; wrestling: 2.14 TD/15 at 38% accuracy vs Yana's 52% TD def; sub threat: 0.97 attempts/15. STAT EDGES (Yana v Luana; UFC.com athlete pages, fetched Oct 21, 2026; TD acc from UFC stats feed per-fight totals; ← = edge) SLpM 4.41 v 2.53 ← Yana | SApM 3.12 v 2.45 ← Luana | Str acc 58% v 54% ← Yana | Str def 53% v 64% ← Luana | TD/15 0.78 v 2.14 ← Luana | TD acc 47% v 38% ← Yana | TD def 52% v 86% ← Luana | Sub/15 0.10 v 0.97 ← Luana TALE OF THE TAPE (UFC feed): Yana age 36, 5'6", reach 68", Orthodox; Luana age 26, 5'6", reach 67", Orthodox RECENT FORM (UFC.com, newest first) • Yana Santos (WWWLL): (10/4/25) Santos won a three round unanimous decision over Macy Chiasson / (5/3/25) Santos won a three round unanimous decision over Miesha Tate / (8/10/24) Santos won a three round unanimous decision over Chelsea Chandler • Luana Santos (WWWLW): (6/20/26) Santos won a three round unanimous decision over Karol Rosa / (12/13/25) Santos won a three round unanimous decision over Melissa Croden / (5/17/25) Santos submitted Tainara Lisboa via americana at 4:59 of the second round NEWS • UFC.com, Sep 29, 2026 (card announcement): No. 6 Yana Santos (17-8, 1 NC) vs No. 7 Luana Santos (11-2). The UFC.com event page (Oct 21) still shows #6 vs #7. MODEL INPUTS • Yana Santos: 12 bouts, 153.6 min, 1170 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 4.21, SApM 3.29, TD/15 0.91. • Luana Santos: 7 bouts, 77.1 min, 364 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 3.05, SApM 3.00, TD/15 1.74. n=100 (seed 20261034): Yana 47, Luana 53. KO/TKO 8, SUB 20, DEC 72. Built before weigh-ins; the official weigh-in date was not yet posted on UFC.com on Oct 21. This is model output, not betting advice. No odds were used.

#001  SANTOS  DEC  R3
#002  SANTOS  DEC  R3
#003  SANTOS  DEC  R3
#004  SANTOS  KO  R3
#005  SANTOS  DEC  R3
#006  SANTOS  SUB  R2
#007  SANTOS  DEC  R3
#008  SANTOS  DEC  R3
#009  SANTOS  DEC  R3
#010  SANTOS  DEC  R3
#011  SANTOS  DEC  R3
#012  SANTOS  SUB  R2

LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Goes the distance. Low confidence. Backtest band 79/140 = 56.4%. Thin sample: Farman Hasanov fails the gate (≥3 bouts or ≥150 sig. att.).

Model lean: Goes the distance (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). The win % shown is the model's analytic probability after shrinkage toward Welterweight averages (Hasanov 0.540). PATH TO VICTORY • Lebosnoyani: 5 of 11 pro wins by submission (KO 3 / SUB 5 / DEC 3); lands 4.14 sig/min; Hasanov absorbs 1.00 and defends 71%; wrestling: 2.89 TD/15 at 43% accuracy; Hasanov has no UFC.com TD-defence figure; sub threat: 1.93 attempts/15; power: 0.48 KD/15. • Hasanov: 4 of 6 pro wins by KO/TKO (KO 4 / SUB 0 / DEC 2); lands 1.40 sig/min; Lebosnoyani absorbs 4.05 and defends 57%; wrestling: 17.00 TD/15 at 63% accuracy vs Lebosnoyani's 100% TD def. STAT EDGES (Lebosnoyani v Hasanov; UFC.com athlete pages, fetched Oct 21, 2026; TD acc from UFC stats feed per-fight totals; ← = edge) SLpM 4.14 v 1.40 ← Lebosnoyani | SApM 4.05 v 1.00 ← Hasanov | Str acc 47% v 51% ← Hasanov | Str def 57% v 71% ← Hasanov | TD/15 2.89 v 17.00 ← Hasanov | TD acc 43% v 63% ← Hasanov | TD def 100% v n/a | Sub/15 1.93 v 0.00 ← Lebosnoyani TALE OF THE TAPE (UFC feed): Lebosnoyani age 27, 5'11", reach 72", Switch; Hasanov age 31, 5'11", reach 74", Orthodox RECENT FORM (UFC.com, newest first) • Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (WWW): (7/18/26) Lebosnoyani won a three round unanimous decision over SeokHyeon Ko / (2/21/26) Lebosnoyani won a three round split decision over Phil Rowe / (9/2/25) Lebosnoyani knocked out Jack Congdon at 1:08 of the first round • Farman Hasanov (W): (6/27/26) Hasanov won a three round unanimous decision over Eric Nolan NEWS • UFC.com, Sep 29, 2026 (card announcement): 'Hot prospect' Lebosnoyani (11-2, Las Vegas) vs undefeated Hasanov (6-0, Nakhchivan, Azerbaijan). • Both men are on 1 UFC bout or fewer since their Octagon debuts. Hasanov debuted 6/27/26 with a unanimous decision over Eric Nolan; Lebosnoyani's Octagon debut was 2/21/26 (UFC.com). MODEL INPUTS • Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani: 3 bouts, 31.1 min, 277 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 3.64, SApM 3.60, TD/15 2.00. • Farman Hasanov: 1 bouts, 15.0 min, 41 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 2.98, SApM 2.90, TD/15 4.63. n=100 (seed 20261035): Lebosnoyani 51, Hasanov 49. KO/TKO 21, SUB 18, DEC 61. Built before weigh-ins; the official weigh-in date was not yet posted on UFC.com on Oct 21. This is model output, not betting advice. No odds were used.

#001  LEBOSNOYANI  DEC  R3
#002  LEBOSNOYANI  DEC  R3
#003  HASANOV  DEC  R3
#004  LEBOSNOYANI  DEC  R3
#005  LEBOSNOYANI  DEC  R3
#006  HASANOV  DEC  R3
#007  HASANOV  SUB  R3
#008  LEBOSNOYANI  DEC  R3
#009  HASANOV  DEC  R3
#010  LEBOSNOYANI  KO  R3
#011  HASANOV  SUB  R3
#012  LEBOSNOYANI  DEC  R3

LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Goes the distance. Low confidence. Backtest band 79/140 = 56.4%. Backtest band for this angle is under 60%.

Model lean: Goes the distance (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). The win % shown is the model's analytic probability after shrinkage toward Featherweight averages (Bolanos 0.517). PATH TO VICTORY • Marshall: 5 of 10 pro wins by submission (KO 1 / SUB 5 / DEC 4); lands 3.19 sig/min; Bolanos absorbs 3.54 and defends 55%; wrestling: 2.71 TD/15 at 47% accuracy vs Bolanos's 50% TD def. • Bolanos: 6 of 9 pro wins by KO/TKO (KO 6 / SUB 0 / DEC 3); lands 3.91 sig/min; Marshall absorbs 3.45 and defends 55%. STAT EDGES (Marshall v Bolanos; UFC.com athlete pages, fetched Oct 21, 2026; TD acc from UFC stats feed per-fight totals; ← = edge) SLpM 3.19 v 3.91 ← Bolanos | SApM 3.45 v 3.54 ← Marshall | Str acc 34% v 48% ← Bolanos | Str def 55% v 55% | TD/15 2.71 v 0.75 ← Marshall | TD acc 47% v 75% ← Bolanos | TD def 89% v 50% ← Marshall | Sub/15 0.51 v 0.00 ← Marshall TALE OF THE TAPE (UFC feed): Marshall age 27, 5'9", reach 72", Orthodox; Bolanos age 34, 5'7", reach 69", Orthodox RECENT FORM (UFC.com, newest first) • Francis Marshall (WWLWL): (4/25/26) Marshall won a three round unanimous decision over Lucas Brennan / (2/28/26) Marshall submitted Erik Silva via rear-naked choke at 2:29 of the first round / (3/8/25) Marshall lost a three round split decision to Mairon Santos • Gaston Bolanos (WLWLW): (6/20/26) Bolanos won a three round unanimous decision over Michael Aswell Jr. / (5/3/25) Bolanos was submitted by Quang Le via rear-naked choke at 1:54 of the second round / (11/9/24) Bolanos won a three round unanimous decision over Cortavious Romious NEWS • UFC.com, Sep 29, 2026 (card announcement): featherweight bout. Marshall (10-3) fights out of Coconut Creek, Fla.; Bolaños (9-5) fights out of Dublin, Calif., by way of Lima, Peru. MODEL INPUTS • Francis Marshall: 8 bouts, 88.5 min, 819 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 3.44, SApM 3.60, TD/15 2.26. • Gaston Bolanos: 5 bouts, 60.4 min, 496 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 3.87, SApM 3.68, TD/15 1.17. n=100 (seed 20261036): Marshall 59, Bolanos 41. KO/TKO 23, SUB 9, DEC 68. Built before weigh-ins; the official weigh-in date was not yet posted on UFC.com on Oct 21. This is model output, not betting advice. No odds were used.

#001  MARSHALL  DEC  R3
#002  MARSHALL  KO  R2
#003  MARSHALL  DEC  R3
#004  MARSHALL  DEC  R3
#005  MARSHALL  SUB  R2
#006  MARSHALL  DEC  R3
#007  BOLANOS  KO  R2
#008  MARSHALL  KO  R3
#009  BOLANOS  KO  R1
#010  BOLANOS  DEC  R3
#011  BOLANOS  DEC  R3
#012  MARSHALL  DEC  R3

LEAN: Andre Petroski wins. Medium confidence. Backtest band 230/375 = 61.3%.

Model lean: Andre Petroski wins (LEAN, MED). The win % shown is the model's analytic probability after shrinkage toward Middleweight averages (Petroski 0.650). PATH TO VICTORY • Petroski: 5 of 13 pro wins by decision (KO 4 / SUB 4 / DEC 5); lands 2.75 sig/min; Bekoev absorbs 6.83 and defends 31%; wrestling: 3.13 TD/15 at 53% accuracy vs Bekoev's 63% TD def; sub threat: 1.23 attempts/15. • Bekoev: 8 each by KO/TKO and submission of 20 pro wins (KO 8 / SUB 8 / DEC 4); lands 4.57 sig/min; Petroski absorbs 2.99 and defends 52%; wrestling: 3.48 TD/15 at 44% accuracy vs Petroski's 86% TD def; power: 1.49 KD/15. STAT EDGES (Petroski v Bekoev; UFC.com athlete pages, fetched Oct 21, 2026; TD acc from UFC stats feed per-fight totals; ← = edge) SLpM 2.75 v 4.57 ← Bekoev | SApM 2.99 v 6.83 ← Petroski | Str acc 49% v 52% ← Bekoev | Str def 52% v 31% ← Petroski | TD/15 3.13 v 3.48 ← Bekoev | TD acc 53% v 44% ← Petroski | TD def 86% v 63% ← Petroski | Sub/15 1.23 v 0.00 ← Petroski TALE OF THE TAPE (UFC feed): Petroski age 35, 6'0", reach 73", Switch; Bekoev age 30, 6'0", reach 72", Orthodox RECENT FORM (UFC.com, newest first) • Andre Petroski (LLLWW): (5/16/26) Petroski was stopped by Cody Brundage via strikes at :44 of the second round / (9/27/25) Petroski was stopped by Cam Rowston via strikes at 2:41 of the first round / (6/14/25) Petroski lost a three round unanimous decision to Edmen Shahbazyan • Azamat Bekoev (LLWW): (4/4/26) Bekoev was submitted by Tresean Gore via guillotine choke at 3:27 of the third round / (10/18/25) Bekoev was stopped by Yousri Belgaroui via strikes at :55 of the third round / (5/3/25) Bekoev stopped Ryan Loder via strikes at 2:44 of the first round NEWS • UFC.com, Sep 29, 2026 (card announcement): 'Veterans' Bekoev (20-5, Vladikavkaz) and Petroski (13-7, Philadelphia) at middleweight. MODEL INPUTS • Andre Petroski: 13 bouts, 134.4 min, 752 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 2.92, SApM 3.09, TD/15 2.63. • Azamat Bekoev: 4 bouts, 30.2 min, 264 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 3.73, SApM 4.48, TD/15 2.17. n=100 (seed 20261037): Petroski 63, Bekoev 37. KO/TKO 31, SUB 24, DEC 45. Built before weigh-ins; the official weigh-in date was not yet posted on UFC.com on Oct 21. This is model output, not betting advice. No odds were used.

#001  PETROSKI  SUB  R2
#002  PETROSKI  DEC  R3
#003  PETROSKI  SUB  R3
#004  PETROSKI  DEC  R3
#005  PETROSKI  SUB  R2
#006  BEKOEV  SUB  R1
#007  PETROSKI  SUB  R3
#008  PETROSKI  KO  R1
#009  PETROSKI  SUB  R2
#010  BEKOEV  KO  R1
#011  BEKOEV  KO  R1
#012  BEKOEV  DEC  R3

LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Inside the distance. Low confidence. Backtest band 105/177 = 59.3%. Thin sample: Rodrigo Sezinando, Theodor Berggren fails the gate (≥3 bouts or ≥150 sig. att.).

Model lean: Inside the distance (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). The win % shown is the model's analytic probability after shrinkage toward Welterweight averages (Sezinando 0.548). PATH TO VICTORY • Sezinando: 4 of 9 pro wins by KO/TKO (KO 4 / SUB 2 / DEC 3); lands 2.25 sig/min; Berggren absorbs 10.78 and defends 34%; wrestling: 3.37 TD/15 at 25% accuracy; Berggren has no UFC.com TD-defence figure. • Berggren: 5 of 8 pro wins by KO/TKO (KO 5 / SUB 3 / DEC 0); lands 3.49 sig/min; Sezinando absorbs 8.76 and defends 43%. STAT EDGES (Sezinando v Berggren; UFC.com athlete pages, fetched Oct 21, 2026; TD acc from UFC stats feed per-fight totals; ← = edge) SLpM 2.25 v 3.49 ← Berggren | SApM 8.76 v 10.78 ← Sezinando | Str acc 28% v 36% ← Berggren | Str def 43% v 34% ← Sezinando | TD/15 3.37 v 0.00 ← Sezinando | TD acc 25% v n/a | TD def 67% v n/a | Sub/15 0.00 v 0.00 TALE OF THE TAPE (UFC feed): Sezinando age 28, 5'9", reach 71", Orthodox; Berggren age 26, 5'11", reach 75", Switch RECENT FORM (UFC.com, newest first) • Rodrigo Sezinando (L): (9/13/25) Sezinando was stopped by Daniil Donchenko via strikes at 4:27 of the first round in The Ultimate Fighter Season 33 welterweight final • Theodor Berggren (L): (6/27/26) Berggren was stopped by Daniil Donchenko via strikes at 1:35 of the second round NEWS • UFC.com, Sep 29, 2026 (card announcement): welterweight bout. Sezinando (9-2) fights out of Vancouver; Berggren (8-4) fights out of Umeå, Sweden. • Common opponent: Daniil Donchenko stopped both men. He stopped Sezinando at 4:27 of R1 in the TUF 33 welterweight final (9/13/25) and Berggren at 1:35 of R2 (6/27/26) (UFC.com). MODEL INPUTS • Rodrigo Sezinando: 1 bouts, 4.5 min, 36 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 3.30, SApM 3.75, TD/15 1.67. • Theodor Berggren: 1 bouts, 6.6 min, 64 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 3.39, SApM 4.11, TD/15 1.39. n=100 (seed 20261038): Sezinando 54, Berggren 46. KO/TKO 30, SUB 25, DEC 45. Built before weigh-ins; the official weigh-in date was not yet posted on UFC.com on Oct 21. This is model output, not betting advice. No odds were used.

#001  BERGGREN  KO  R3
#002  SEZINANDO  KO  R3
#003  SEZINANDO  SUB  R2
#004  SEZINANDO  KO  R2
#005  BERGGREN  DEC  R3
#006  SEZINANDO  SUB  R1
#007  BERGGREN  DEC  R3
#008  BERGGREN  DEC  R3
#009  SEZINANDO  DEC  R3
#010  SEZINANDO  DEC  R3
#011  BERGGREN  SUB  R1
#012  BERGGREN  SUB  R1

LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Inside the distance. Low confidence. Backtest band 105/177 = 59.3%. Backtest band for this angle is under 60%.

Model lean: Inside the distance (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). The win % shown is the model's analytic probability after shrinkage toward Featherweight averages (Erosa 0.517). PATH TO VICTORY • Erosa: 14 of 31 pro wins by submission (KO 12 / SUB 14 / DEC 5); lands 6.18 sig/min; Lee absorbs 3.82 and defends 51%; wrestling: 1.73 TD/15 at 44% accuracy vs Lee's 73% TD def. • Lee: 4 each by KO/TKO and decision of 11 pro wins (KO 4 / SUB 3 / DEC 4); lands 3.38 sig/min; Erosa absorbs 6.31 and defends 49%. STAT EDGES (Erosa v Lee; UFC.com athlete pages, fetched Oct 21, 2026; TD acc from UFC stats feed per-fight totals; ← = edge) SLpM 6.18 v 3.38 ← Erosa | SApM 6.31 v 3.82 ← Lee | Str acc 48% v 49% ← Lee | Str def 49% v 51% ← Lee | TD/15 1.73 v 0.63 ← Erosa | TD acc 44% v 67% ← Lee | TD def 62% v 73% ← Lee | Sub/15 0.71 v 0.32 ← Erosa TALE OF THE TAPE (UFC feed): Erosa age 37, 6'1", reach 74", Southpaw; Lee age 30, 5'10", reach 74", Orthodox RECENT FORM (UFC.com, newest first) • Julian Erosa (LLWWW): (3/28/26) Erosa was knocked out by Lerryan Douglas at 3:33 of the first round / (5/17/25) Erosa lost a three round unanimous decision to Melquizael Costa / (4/12/25) Erosa stopped Darren Elkins via strikes at 4:15 of the first round • JeongYeong Lee (LLWW): (5/10/25) Lee lost a three round unanimous decision to Daniel Santos / (7/20/24) Lee was stopped by Hyder Amil via strikes at 1:05 of the first round / (2/3/24) Lee won a three round unanimous decision over Blake Bilder NEWS • UFC.com, Sep 29, 2026 (card announcement): DWCS signee Erosa (31-14) meets JeongYeong Lee (11-3, Daegu), the Road to UFC Season 1 winner. MODEL INPUTS • Julian Erosa: 19 bouts, 147.2 min, 1881 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 5.50, SApM 5.59, TD/15 1.70. • JeongYeong Lee: 6 bouts, 47.4 min, 324 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 3.63, SApM 3.82, TD/15 1.18. n=100 (seed 20261039): Erosa 57, Lee 43. KO/TKO 18, SUB 32, DEC 50. Built before weigh-ins; the official weigh-in date was not yet posted on UFC.com on Oct 21. This is model output, not betting advice. No odds were used.

#001  LEE  DEC  R3
#002  LEE  SUB  R2
#003  LEE  DEC  R3
#004  EROSA  SUB  R3
#005  LEE  DEC  R3
#006  LEE  KO  R3
#007  EROSA  DEC  R3
#008  LEE  DEC  R3
#009  EROSA  SUB  R2
#010  EROSA  SUB  R2
#011  EROSA  DEC  R3
#012  LEE  DEC  R3

LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Joe Kropschot wins. Low confidence. Backtest band 230/375 = 61.3%. UFC debut: Joe Kropschot. Treated at the class average, with no backtest basis.

Model lean: Joe Kropschot wins (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). The win % shown is the model's analytic probability after shrinkage toward Middleweight averages (Kropschot 0.560). PATH TO VICTORY • Klein: 3 of 6 pro wins by submission (KO 2 / SUB 3 / DEC 1); lands 2.51 sig/min; Kropschot absorbs 3.93 and defends 63%; wrestling: 5.79 TD/15 at 35% accuracy vs Kropschot's 50% TD def; sub threat: 1.93 attempts/15. • Kropschot: lands 7.93 sig/min; Klein absorbs 3.41 and defends 40%; sub threat: 3.00 attempts/15. STAT EDGES (Klein v Kropschot; UFC.com athlete pages, fetched Oct 21, 2026; TD acc from UFC stats feed per-fight totals; ← = edge) SLpM 2.51 v 7.93 ← Kropschot | SApM 3.41 v 3.93 ← Klein | Str acc 57% v 61% ← Kropschot | Str def 40% v 63% ← Kropschot | TD/15 5.79 v 1.00 ← Klein | TD acc 35% v 50% ← Kropschot | TD def 67% v 50% ← Klein | Sub/15 1.93 v 3.00 ← Kropschot TALE OF THE TAPE (UFC feed): Klein age 31, 6'1", reach 77", Orthodox; Kropschot age 31, 6'3", reach 79", Orthodox RECENT FORM (UFC.com, newest first) • Nick Klein (LW): (2/22/25) Klein was stopped by Mansur Abdul-Malik via strikes at 3:24 of the second round / (10/15/24) Klein submitted Heraldo Souza via rear naked choke at :37 of the first round • Joe Kropschot (no UFC bouts): no UFC fights listed NEWS • UFC.com, Sep 29, 2026 (card announcement): a matchup of DWCS signees in which Klein (6-3) looks to spoil Kropschot's (9-3) UFC debut. MODEL INPUTS • Nick Klein: 3 bouts, 15.5 min, 69 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 3.14, SApM 3.33, TD/15 2.39. • Joe Kropschot: 1 bouts, 15.0 min, 195 sig. att. (strong shrink x3 (non-UFC sample)). Shrunk SLpM 3.66, SApM 3.35, TD/15 1.47. n=100 (seed 20261040): Klein 28, Kropschot 72. KO/TKO 29, SUB 27, DEC 44. Built before weigh-ins; the official weigh-in date was not yet posted on UFC.com on Oct 21. This is model output, not betting advice. No odds were used.

#001  KROPSCHOT  KO  R3
#002  KROPSCHOT  SUB  R1
#003  KROPSCHOT  DEC  R3
#004  KLEIN  SUB  R1
#005  KLEIN  SUB  R1
#006  KLEIN  SUB  R2
#007  KROPSCHOT  KO  R2
#008  KROPSCHOT  SUB  R2
#009  KROPSCHOT  DEC  R3
#010  KLEIN  KO  R1
#011  KROPSCHOT  DEC  R3
#012  KROPSCHOT  DEC  R3

Best plays · PLAY Rodriguez. PLAY: Piera Rodriguez wins. High confidence. Backtest band 159/230 = 69.1%.

Model lean: Piera Rodriguez wins (PLAY, HIGH). The win % shown is the model's analytic probability after shrinkage toward Women's Strawweight averages (Rodriguez 0.656). PATH TO VICTORY • Rodriguez: 7 of 12 pro wins by decision (KO 5 / SUB 0 / DEC 7); lands 4.04 sig/min; Alencar absorbs 3.67 and defends 51%; wrestling: 4.04 TD/15 at 51% accuracy vs Alencar's 67% TD def. • Alencar: 4 each by submission and decision of 8 pro wins (KO 0 / SUB 4 / DEC 4); lands 3.09 sig/min; Rodriguez absorbs 3.13 and defends 54%; wrestling: 3.01 TD/15 at 30% accuracy vs Rodriguez's 82% TD def. STAT EDGES (Rodriguez v Alencar; UFC.com athlete pages, fetched Oct 21, 2026; TD acc from UFC stats feed per-fight totals; ← = edge) SLpM 4.04 v 3.09 ← Rodriguez | SApM 3.13 v 3.67 ← Rodriguez | Str acc 47% v 36% ← Rodriguez | Str def 54% v 51% ← Rodriguez | TD/15 4.04 v 3.01 ← Rodriguez | TD acc 51% v 30% ← Rodriguez | TD def 82% v 67% ← Rodriguez | Sub/15 0.00 v 0.50 ← Alencar TALE OF THE TAPE (UFC feed): Rodriguez age 33, 5'3", reach 64", Orthodox; Alencar age 36, 5'1", reach 58", Orthodox RECENT FORM (UFC.com, newest first) • Piera Rodriguez (WWWLL): (3/14/26) Rodriguez won a three round unanimous decision over Sam Hughes / (8/2/25) Rodriguez won a three round split decision over Ketlen Souza / (12/14/24) Rodriguez won a three round unanimous decision over Josefine Knutsson • Talita Alencar (WWWLW): (4/25/26) Alencar won a three round unanimous decision over Julia Polastri / (11/1/25) Alencar submitted Ariane Carnelossi via rear-naked choke at 4:36 of the third round / (4/5/25) Alencar won a three round unanimous decision over Vanessa Demopoulos NEWS • UFC.com, Sep 29, 2026 (card announcement): 'Dominant grappler' Alencar (8-1-1) vs DWCS signee Rodríguez (12-2). MODEL INPUTS • Piera Rodriguez: 8 bouts, 107.6 min, 927 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 4.03, SApM 3.44, TD/15 3.09. • Talita Alencar: 6 bouts, 89.6 min, 768 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 3.46, SApM 3.81, TD/15 2.36. n=100 (seed 20261041): Rodriguez 68, Alencar 32. KO/TKO 3, SUB 13, DEC 84. Built before weigh-ins; the official weigh-in date was not yet posted on UFC.com on Oct 21. This is model output, not betting advice. No odds were used.

#001  RODRIGUEZ  DEC  R3
#002  RODRIGUEZ  DEC  R3
#003  ALENCAR  DEC  R3
#004  RODRIGUEZ  DEC  R3
#005  RODRIGUEZ  DEC  R3
#006  RODRIGUEZ  DEC  R3
#007  RODRIGUEZ  DEC  R3
#008  RODRIGUEZ  DEC  R3
#009  RODRIGUEZ  DEC  R3
#010  ALENCAR  DEC  R3
#011  ALENCAR  SUB  R3
#012  RODRIGUEZ  DEC  R3

LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Lucia Szabova wins. Low confidence. Backtest band 230/375 = 61.3%. UFC debut: Lucia Szabova. Treated at the class average, with no backtest basis.

Model lean: Lucia Szabova wins (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). The win % shown is the model's analytic probability after shrinkage toward Women's Flyweight averages (Szabova 0.571). PATH TO VICTORY • Szabova: no UFC.com fight stats (UFC debut). Pro record only. • Lisboa: 3 each by KO/TKO and submission of 7 pro wins (KO 3 / SUB 3 / DEC 1); wrestling: 1.67 TD/15 at 32% accuracy; Szabova has no UFC.com TD-defence figure. STAT EDGES (Szabova v Lisboa; UFC.com athlete pages, fetched Oct 21, 2026; TD acc from UFC stats feed per-fight totals; ← = edge) SLpM n/a v 2.01 | SApM n/a v 2.88 | Str acc n/a v 44% | Str def n/a v 46% | TD/15 n/a v 1.67 | TD acc n/a v 32% | TD def n/a v 53% | Sub/15 n/a v 0.28 TALE OF THE TAPE (UFC feed): Szabova age 28; Lisboa age 35, 5'7", reach 67", Orthodox RECENT FORM (UFC.com, newest first) • Lucia Szabova (no UFC bouts): no UFC fights listed • Tainara Lisboa (LLWW): (10/18/25) Lisboa was stopped by Melissa Croden via strikes at 4:32 of the third round / (5/17/25) Lisboa was submitted by Luana Santos via americana at 4:59 of the second round / (10/14/23) Lisboa won a three round unanimous decision over Ravena Oliveira NEWS • UFC.com, Sep 29, 2026 (card announcement): Szabová (12-0, Bratislava) makes her UFC debut against Lisboa (7-4, Santos, Brazil) and 'looks to stay perfect'. • Cross-card link: on 5/17/25 Luana Santos submitted Lisboa (americana, 4:59 of R2), and on 10/18/25 Melissa Croden stopped her (strikes, 4:32 of R3) (UFC.com). MODEL INPUTS • Lucia Szabova: no UFC/DWCS fight stats. Modelled at the Women's Flyweight average (n=0); no sample was invented. • Tainara Lisboa: 4 bouts, 53.9 min, 244 sig. att. (standard shrink). Shrunk SLpM 3.08, SApM 3.49, TD/15 1.48. n=100 (seed 20261042): Szabova 64, Lisboa 36. KO/TKO 19, SUB 16, DEC 65. Built before weigh-ins; the official weigh-in date was not yet posted on UFC.com on Oct 21. This is model output, not betting advice. No odds were used.

#001  LISBOA  DEC  R3
#002  SZABOVA  DEC  R3
#003  SZABOVA  SUB  R1
#004  LISBOA  SUB  R2
#005  LISBOA  KO  R2
#006  LISBOA  DEC  R3
#007  SZABOVA  KO  R1
#008  SZABOVA  DEC  R3
#009  SZABOVA  DEC  R3
#010  SZABOVA  KO  R1
#011  SZABOVA  DEC  R3
#012  LISBOA  DEC  R3