SIMCAGE
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n=100 · Simcage Pro

100-sim board

UFC Edmonton desk. Numbers are model output, not a ticket we place. Archived desk. Read-only.

Betting styles

model angle, not a ticket we place.

Safe

    No safe parlay on this card.

    Aggressive

    • Croden · DEC. model angle, not a ticket we place.
    Mike Malott vs Joaquin Buckley

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    LEAN

    59%

    Malott

    41%

    Buckley

    LEAN: Mike Malott wins. Medium confidence. Backtest band for this angle 230/375 = 61.3%.

    43%

    KO/TKO

    19%

    SUB

    38%

    DEC

    Finish-round histogram

    16R1
    10R2
    23R3
    5R4
    8R5
    38DEC

    Goes the distance 38%

    Model lean: Mike Malott wins (LEAN, MED). Win % shown = model analytic probability (the tier variable); sim winner split is listed below. Model win prob Malott 0.590 after shrinkage toward Welterweight averages. Joaquin Buckley: shrunk SLpM 3.56 / SApM 3.16, def 59%, TD/15 1.45. UFC.com 21-8-0, form LLWWW. Inputs: standard shrink. Mike Malott: shrunk SLpM 3.68 / SApM 3.06, def 57%, TD/15 1.55. UFC.com 14-2-1, form WWWWL. Inputs: standard shrink. n=100 (seed 20261018): Buckley 47, Malott 53. KO/TKO 43, SUB 19, DEC 38. Weigh-ins Oct 16 (UFC.com): all made weight. Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  MALOTT  KO  R3
#002  MALOTT  SUB  R2
#003  BUCKLEY  KO  R1
#004  BUCKLEY  KO  R4
#005  BUCKLEY  KO  R5
#006  BUCKLEY  DEC  R5
#007  MALOTT  KO  R2
#008  MALOTT  SUB  R3
#009  MALOTT  SUB  R4
#010  BUCKLEY  DEC  R5
#011  MALOTT  DEC  R5
#012  MALOTT  SUB  R3
    How the 100-sim board works
    Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Erin Blanchfield

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    LEAN

    41%

    Jasudavicius

    59%

    Blanchfield

    LEAN: Erin Blanchfield wins. Medium confidence. Backtest band for this angle 230/375 = 61.3%.

    4%

    KO/TKO

    38%

    SUB

    58%

    DEC

    Finish-round histogram

    7R1
    23R2
    12R3
    58DEC

    Goes the distance 58%

    Model lean: Erin Blanchfield wins (LEAN, MED). Win % shown = model analytic probability (the tier variable); sim winner split is listed below. Model win prob Blanchfield 0.587 after shrinkage toward Women's Flyweight averages. Erin Blanchfield: shrunk SLpM 4.85 / SApM 4.18, def 59%, TD/15 1.74. UFC.com 14-2-0, form WWLWW. Inputs: standard shrink. Jasmine Jasudavicius: shrunk SLpM 3.62 / SApM 3.62, def 52%, TD/15 2.27. UFC.com 15-4-0, form WLWWW. Inputs: standard shrink. n=100 (seed 20261019): Blanchfield 59, Jasudavicius 41. KO/TKO 4, SUB 38, DEC 58. Weigh-ins Oct 16 (UFC.com): all made weight. Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  JASUDAVICIUS  DEC  R3
#002  JASUDAVICIUS  SUB  R2
#003  BLANCHFIELD  KO  R1
#004  JASUDAVICIUS  SUB  R2
#005  BLANCHFIELD  SUB  R1
#006  JASUDAVICIUS  SUB  R1
#007  BLANCHFIELD  DEC  R3
#008  BLANCHFIELD  DEC  R3
#009  JASUDAVICIUS  DEC  R3
#010  JASUDAVICIUS  DEC  R3
#011  JASUDAVICIUS  DEC  R3
#012  BLANCHFIELD  DEC  R3
    How the 100-sim board works
    Cristian Perez Gonzalez vs Kyle Nelson

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    LOW

    56%

    Gonzalez

    44%

    Nelson

    LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Cristian Perez wins. Low confidence. Backtest band for this angle 230/375 = 61.3%. UFC debut: Cristian Perez; no backtest basis.

    43%

    KO/TKO

    12%

    SUB

    45%

    DEC

    Finish-round histogram

    8R1
    33R2
    14R3
    45DEC

    Goes the distance 45%

    Model lean: Cristian Perez wins (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). Win % shown = model analytic probability (the tier variable); sim winner split is listed below. Model win prob Perez 0.556 after shrinkage toward Lightweight averages. Kyle Nelson: shrunk SLpM 3.57 / SApM 4.21, def 54%, TD/15 1.33. UFC.com 17-7-1, form LWLWW. Inputs: standard shrink. Cristian Perez: shrunk SLpM 3.49 / SApM 3.61, def 52%, TD/15 1.70. UFC.com 15-2-0, form no UFC history. Inputs: strong shrink x3 (non-UFC sample). n=100 (seed 20261020): Nelson 43, Perez 57. KO/TKO 43, SUB 12, DEC 45. Weigh-ins Oct 16 (UFC.com): all made weight. Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  PEREZ  DEC  R3
#002  PEREZ  KO  R1
#003  PEREZ  SUB  R1
#004  NELSON  KO  R1
#005  NELSON  KO  R2
#006  NELSON  KO  R1
#007  PEREZ  DEC  R3
#008  NELSON  DEC  R3
#009  PEREZ  DEC  R3
#010  NELSON  DEC  R3
#011  PEREZ  DEC  R3
#012  PEREZ  DEC  R3
    How the 100-sim board works
    Kyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre Barriault

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    LEANFree preview

    60%

    Daukaus

    40%

    Barriault

    LEAN: Inside the distance. Medium confidence. Backtest band for this angle 85/120 = 70.8%.

    32%

    KO/TKO

    40%

    SUB

    28%

    DEC

    Finish-round histogram

    36R1
    27R2
    9R3
    28DEC

    Goes the distance 28%

    Model lean: Inside the distance (LEAN, MED). Win % shown = model analytic probability (the tier variable); sim winner split is listed below. Model win prob Daukaus 0.604 after shrinkage toward Middleweight averages. Marc-Andre Barriault: shrunk SLpM 5.05 / SApM 5.27, def 49%, TD/15 0.64. UFC.com 17-11-0, form LLWLL. Inputs: standard shrink. Kyle Daukaus: shrunk SLpM 3.22 / SApM 3.09, def 45%, TD/15 1.78. UFC.com 17-4-0, form LWWLL. Inputs: standard shrink. n=100 (seed 20261021): Barriault 45, Daukaus 55. KO/TKO 32, SUB 40, DEC 28. Weigh-ins Oct 16 (UFC.com): all made weight. Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  DAUKAUS  SUB  R3
#002  BARRIAULT  KO  R1
#003  DAUKAUS  SUB  R1
#004  DAUKAUS  KO  R2
#005  DAUKAUS  KO  R1
#006  BARRIAULT  KO  R3
#007  BARRIAULT  KO  R1
#008  DAUKAUS  SUB  R1
#009  BARRIAULT  DEC  R3
#010  BARRIAULT  DEC  R3
#011  BARRIAULT  SUB  R2
#012  DAUKAUS  KO  R1
    How the 100-sim board works
    Timmy Cuamba vs Louis Jourdain

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    LOW

    39%

    Cuamba

    61%

    Jourdain

    LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Louis Jourdain wins. Low confidence. Backtest band for this angle 230/375 = 61.3%. UFC debut: Louis Jourdain; no backtest basis.

    33%

    KO/TKO

    28%

    SUB

    39%

    DEC

    Finish-round histogram

    8R1
    34R2
    19R3
    39DEC

    Goes the distance 39%

    Model lean: Louis Jourdain wins (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). Win % shown = model analytic probability (the tier variable); sim winner split is listed below. Model win prob Jourdain 0.606 after shrinkage toward Bantamweight averages. Louis Jourdain: shrunk SLpM 3.87 / SApM 3.60, def 56%, TD/15 1.50. UFC.com 9-3-0, form no UFC history. Inputs: strong shrink x3 (non-UFC sample). Timmy Cuamba: shrunk SLpM 3.23 / SApM 3.70, def 56%, TD/15 1.36. UFC.com 10-4-0, form LWWLL. Inputs: standard shrink. n=100 (seed 20261022): Jourdain 61, Cuamba 39. KO/TKO 33, SUB 28, DEC 39. Weigh-ins Oct 16 (UFC.com): all made weight. Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  CUAMBA  DEC  R3
#002  CUAMBA  KO  R3
#003  JOURDAIN  KO  R3
#004  JOURDAIN  SUB  R2
#005  CUAMBA  DEC  R3
#006  JOURDAIN  SUB  R2
#007  JOURDAIN  SUB  R1
#008  JOURDAIN  KO  R2
#009  JOURDAIN  DEC  R3
#010  JOURDAIN  SUB  R3
#011  JOURDAIN  SUB  R2
#012  JOURDAIN  KO  R2
    How the 100-sim board works
    Nate Landwehr vs Mandel Nallo

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    LOW

    41%

    Landwehr

    59%

    Nallo

    LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Mandel Nallo wins. Low confidence. Backtest band for this angle 230/375 = 61.3%.

    33%

    KO/TKO

    31%

    SUB

    36%

    DEC

    Finish-round histogram

    40R1
    13R2
    11R3
    36DEC

    Goes the distance 36%

    Model lean: Mandel Nallo wins (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). Win % shown = model analytic probability (the tier variable); sim winner split is listed below. Model win prob Nallo 0.586 after shrinkage toward Lightweight averages. Mandel Nallo: shrunk SLpM 3.91 / SApM 3.64, def 56%, TD/15 1.49. UFC.com 14-4-0, form L. Inputs: standard shrink. Nate Landwehr: shrunk SLpM 4.80 / SApM 5.06, def 52%, TD/15 1.06. UFC.com 18-8-0, form LLLWL. Inputs: standard shrink. n=100 (seed 20261023): Nallo 58, Landwehr 42. KO/TKO 33, SUB 31, DEC 36. Weigh-ins Oct 16 (UFC.com): all made weight. Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  NALLO  DEC  R3
#002  NALLO  KO  R1
#003  NALLO  DEC  R3
#004  LANDWEHR  SUB  R2
#005  LANDWEHR  SUB  R3
#006  NALLO  KO  R1
#007  LANDWEHR  DEC  R3
#008  NALLO  KO  R3
#009  NALLO  SUB  R1
#010  LANDWEHR  DEC  R3
#011  NALLO  KO  R1
#012  NALLO  DEC  R3
    How the 100-sim board works
    Jhonata Diniz vs Tanner Boser

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    LEAN

    40%

    Diniz

    60%

    Boser

    LEAN: Tanner Boser wins. Medium confidence. Backtest band for this angle 230/375 = 61.3%.

    57%

    KO/TKO

    6%

    SUB

    37%

    DEC

    Finish-round histogram

    10R1
    36R2
    17R3
    37DEC

    Goes the distance 37%

    Model lean: Tanner Boser wins (LEAN, MED). Win % shown = model analytic probability (the tier variable); sim winner split is listed below. Model win prob Boser 0.596 after shrinkage toward Heavyweight averages. Tanner Boser: shrunk SLpM 4.34 / SApM 3.13, def 57%, TD/15 0.42. UFC.com 22-11-1, form LWLLW. Inputs: standard shrink. Jhonata Diniz: shrunk SLpM 3.63 / SApM 3.50, def 55%, TD/15 0.63. UFC.com 9-2-0, form LWLWW. Inputs: standard shrink. n=100 (seed 20261024): Boser 56, Diniz 44. KO/TKO 57, SUB 6, DEC 37. Weigh-ins Oct 16 (UFC.com): all made weight. Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  BOSER  DEC  R3
#002  BOSER  KO  R2
#003  DINIZ  DEC  R3
#004  BOSER  KO  R2
#005  DINIZ  KO  R3
#006  BOSER  KO  R1
#007  BOSER  KO  R3
#008  BOSER  KO  R2
#009  DINIZ  DEC  R3
#010  DINIZ  KO  R2
#011  BOSER  KO  R3
#012  BOSER  KO  R2
    How the 100-sim board works
    Nick Galanti vs Julien Leblanc

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    LOW

    53%

    Galanti

    47%

    Leblanc

    LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Inside the distance. Low confidence. Backtest band for this angle 88/158 = 55.7%. UFC debut: Nick Galanti; no backtest basis.

    45%

    KO/TKO

    24%

    SUB

    31%

    DEC

    Finish-round histogram

    43R1
    15R2
    11R3
    31DEC

    Goes the distance 31%

    Model lean: Inside the distance (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). Win % shown = model analytic probability (the tier variable); sim winner split is listed below. Model win prob Galanti 0.532 after shrinkage toward Middleweight averages. Julien Leblanc: shrunk SLpM 3.24 / SApM 3.29, def 53%, TD/15 1.46. UFC.com 10-3-0, form L. Inputs: standard shrink. Nick Galanti: shrunk SLpM 3.34 / SApM 3.30, def 53%, TD/15 1.51. UFC.com 8-1-0, form no UFC history. Inputs: strong shrink x3 (non-UFC sample). n=100 (seed 20261025): Leblanc 47, Galanti 53. KO/TKO 45, SUB 24, DEC 31. Weigh-ins Oct 16 (UFC.com): all made weight. Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  LEBLANC  DEC  R3
#002  LEBLANC  DEC  R3
#003  GALANTI  KO  R2
#004  LEBLANC  KO  R2
#005  LEBLANC  KO  R2
#006  GALANTI  DEC  R3
#007  GALANTI  KO  R3
#008  GALANTI  DEC  R3
#009  LEBLANC  DEC  R3
#010  LEBLANC  KO  R2
#011  GALANTI  KO  R1
#012  LEBLANC  SUB  R2
    How the 100-sim board works
    Joel Faglier vs Javad Mahjoub

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    LOW

    50%

    Faglier

    50%

    Mahjoub

    LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Inside the distance. Low confidence. Backtest band for this angle 105/177 = 59.3%. UFC debut: Javad Mahjoub, Joel Faglier; no backtest basis.

    44%

    KO/TKO

    13%

    SUB

    43%

    DEC

    Finish-round histogram

    24R1
    26R2
    7R3
    43DEC

    Goes the distance 43%

    Model lean: Inside the distance (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). Win % shown = model analytic probability (the tier variable); sim winner split is listed below. Model win prob No side (50/50) 0.500 after shrinkage toward Heavyweight averages. Javad Mahjoub: shrunk SLpM 3.38 / SApM 3.38, def 51%, TD/15 1.26. UFC.com 5-0-0, form no UFC history. Inputs: prior-only (n=0). Joel Faglier: shrunk SLpM 3.38 / SApM 3.38, def 51%, TD/15 1.26. UFC.com 6-0-0, form no UFC history. Inputs: prior-only (n=0). n=100 (seed 20261026): Mahjoub 50, Faglier 50. KO/TKO 44, SUB 13, DEC 43. Weigh-ins Oct 16 (UFC.com): all made weight. Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  MAHJOUB  KO  R1
#002  MAHJOUB  SUB  R1
#003  MAHJOUB  KO  R1
#004  FAGLIER  KO  R2
#005  MAHJOUB  DEC  R3
#006  FAGLIER  KO  R1
#007  MAHJOUB  SUB  R3
#008  MAHJOUB  KO  R3
#009  MAHJOUB  DEC  R3
#010  MAHJOUB  KO  R1
#011  FAGLIER  DEC  R3
#012  MAHJOUB  KO  R2
    How the 100-sim board works
    Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    LOW

    48%

    Cerminara

    52%

    Stiller

    LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Goes the distance. Low confidence. Backtest band for this angle 31/54 = 57.4%. UFC debut: Mackenzie Stiller; no backtest basis.

    10%

    KO/TKO

    13%

    SUB

    77%

    DEC

    Finish-round histogram

    8R1
    10R2
    5R3
    77DEC

    Goes the distance 77%

    Model lean: Goes the distance (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). Win % shown = model analytic probability (the tier variable); sim winner split is listed below. Model win prob Stiller 0.524 after shrinkage toward Women's Flyweight averages. Katlyn Cerminara: shrunk SLpM 4.47 / SApM 4.39, def 62%, TD/15 0.51. UFC.com 18-6-0, form LLWWW. Inputs: standard shrink. Mackenzie Stiller: shrunk SLpM 4.04 / SApM 4.04, def 56%, TD/15 1.31. UFC.com 6-1-0, form no UFC history. Inputs: prior-only (n=0). n=100 (seed 20261027): Cerminara 48, Stiller 52. KO/TKO 10, SUB 13, DEC 77. Weigh-ins Oct 16 (UFC.com): all made weight. Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  CERMINARA  DEC  R3
#002  CERMINARA  DEC  R3
#003  CERMINARA  KO  R2
#004  CERMINARA  DEC  R3
#005  STILLER  DEC  R3
#006  CERMINARA  DEC  R3
#007  STILLER  DEC  R3
#008  CERMINARA  DEC  R3
#009  CERMINARA  DEC  R3
#010  CERMINARA  DEC  R3
#011  STILLER  SUB  R1
#012  STILLER  DEC  R3
    How the 100-sim board works
    Steven Koslow vs Chad Anheliger

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    LOW

    45%

    Koslow

    55%

    Anheliger

    LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: Chad Anheliger wins. Low confidence. Backtest band for this angle 230/375 = 61.3%.

    33%

    KO/TKO

    14%

    SUB

    53%

    DEC

    Finish-round histogram

    15R1
    25R2
    7R3
    53DEC

    Goes the distance 53%

    Model lean: Chad Anheliger wins (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). Win % shown = model analytic probability (the tier variable); sim winner split is listed below. Model win prob Anheliger 0.552 after shrinkage toward Bantamweight averages. Chad Anheliger: shrunk SLpM 3.34 / SApM 3.13, def 54%, TD/15 1.05. UFC.com 13-8-0, form LWLLW. Inputs: standard shrink. Steven Koslow: shrunk SLpM 3.11 / SApM 3.68, def 50%, TD/15 2.30. UFC.com 6-1-0, form L. Inputs: standard shrink. n=100 (seed 20261028): Anheliger 48, Koslow 52. KO/TKO 33, SUB 14, DEC 53. Weigh-ins Oct 16 (UFC.com): all made weight. Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  KOSLOW  DEC  R3
#002  KOSLOW  DEC  R3
#003  KOSLOW  KO  R2
#004  ANHELIGER  KO  R2
#005  ANHELIGER  DEC  R3
#006  KOSLOW  DEC  R3
#007  KOSLOW  KO  R3
#008  ANHELIGER  DEC  R3
#009  KOSLOW  KO  R2
#010  KOSLOW  DEC  R3
#011  KOSLOW  DEC  R3
#012  KOSLOW  KO  R1
    How the 100-sim board works
    Chelsea Chandler vs Melissa Croden

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    PLAY

    28%

    Chandler

    72%

    Croden

    Best plays · PLAY Croden. High confidence. Model 0.719 after shrinkage; backtest PLAY tier 136/193 = 70.5% (CI 63.7–76.5). Weigh-in re-check passed (Croden 136, Chandler 135.5; UFC.com Oct 16).

    30%

    KO/TKO

    12%

    SUB

    58%

    DEC

    Finish-round histogram

    16R1
    18R2
    8R3
    58DEC

    Goes the distance 58%

    Model lean: Melissa Croden wins (PLAY, HIGH). Win % shown = model analytic probability (the tier variable); sim winner split is listed below. Model win prob Croden 0.719 after shrinkage toward Women's Bantamweight averages. Melissa Croden: shrunk SLpM 3.95 / SApM 3.04, def 57%, TD/15 1.57. UFC.com 8-3-0, form WLW. Inputs: standard shrink. Chelsea Chandler: shrunk SLpM 3.62 / SApM 3.98, def 44%, TD/15 1.03. UFC.com 7-4-0, form WLLWL. Inputs: standard shrink. n=100 (seed 20261029): Croden 70, Chandler 30. KO/TKO 30, SUB 12, DEC 58. Weigh-ins Oct 16 (UFC.com): all made weight. Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  CRODEN  KO  R3
#002  CRODEN  KO  R3
#003  CHANDLER  SUB  R1
#004  CRODEN  KO  R2
#005  CHANDLER  KO  R1
#006  CRODEN  DEC  R3
#007  CRODEN  DEC  R3
#008  CRODEN  KO  R2
#009  CRODEN  DEC  R3
#010  CRODEN  DEC  R3
#011  CRODEN  KO  R2
#012  CRODEN  DEC  R3
    How the 100-sim board works
    Suyoung You vs Cody Chovancek

    Simcage Pro · n=100

    LOWFree preview

    60%

    You

    40%

    Chovancek

    LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN: SuYoung You wins. Low confidence. Backtest band for this angle 230/375 = 61.3%. UFC debut: Cody Chovancek; no backtest basis.

    27%

    KO/TKO

    7%

    SUB

    66%

    DEC

    Finish-round histogram

    9R1
    12R2
    13R3
    66DEC

    Goes the distance 66%

    Model lean: SuYoung You wins (LOW-CONFIDENCE LEAN, LOW). Win % shown = model analytic probability (the tier variable); sim winner split is listed below. Model win prob You 0.595 after shrinkage toward Bantamweight averages. Cody Chovancek: shrunk SLpM 3.62 / SApM 3.60, def 56%, TD/15 1.51. UFC.com 9-0-0, form no UFC history. Inputs: strong shrink x3 (non-UFC sample). SuYoung You: shrunk SLpM 2.79 / SApM 2.72, def 66%, TD/15 3.12. UFC.com 16-4-0, form LWWW. Inputs: standard shrink. n=100 (seed 20261030): Chovancek 36, You 64. KO/TKO 27, SUB 7, DEC 66. Weigh-ins Oct 16 (UFC.com): all made weight. Model output, not betting advice. No odds used.

    Raw log excerpt (first 12 rows)
    #001  YOU  DEC  R3
#002  YOU  KO  R3
#003  YOU  DEC  R3
#004  CHOVANCEK  KO  R2
#005  YOU  SUB  R1
#006  CHOVANCEK  DEC  R3
#007  YOU  DEC  R3
#008  YOU  DEC  R3
#009  YOU  DEC  R3
#010  CHOVANCEK  DEC  R3
#011  CHOVANCEK  DEC  R3
#012  CHOVANCEK  DEC  R3
    How the 100-sim board works

    n=100 Monte Carlo from public UFC.com / ufcstats / Tapology tape plus this-week news. Model output, not a guarantee, not a ticket we place. Research only.