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n=100 · Simcage Pro

100-sim board

UFC Fight Night desk. Numbers are model output, not a ticket we place. Archived desk. Read-only.

Betting styles

model angle, not a ticket we place.

Safe

  • Duncan · KO/TKO. model angle, not a ticket we place.
  • Bonfim · KO/TKO. model angle, not a ticket we place.
  • Franco · KO/TKO. model angle, not a ticket we place.

Parlay: Duncan, Bonfim, Franco. model angle, not a ticket we place.

Aggressive

  • Duncan · KO/TKO. model angle, not a ticket we place.
  • Bonfim · KO/TKO. model angle, not a ticket we place.
  • Franco · KO/TKO · R1. model angle, not a ticket we place.
  • Godinez · DEC. model angle, not a ticket we place.

Parlay: Duncan, Bonfim, Franco. model angle, not a ticket we place.

Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan

Simcage Pro · n=100

PLAY

20%

Allen

80%

Duncan

Best plays · PLAY Duncan. Striking margin better by 2.12. Last 5 is 5-0 vs 3-2. Allen's 20 sim wins include 12 submissions.

53%

KO/TKO

15%

SUB

32%

DEC

Finish-round histogram

23R1
15R2
15R3
9R4
6R5
32DEC

Goes the distance 32%

Pace SLpM 8.20, SApM 6.14, TD avg/15 1.95. Model output, not an official result. No betting line. Modeled as 5 rounds. UFC.com does not print scheduled rounds. Allen 27-7-0 US. ufcstats SLpM 3.75 acc 52% SApM 3.78 def 47% TD 1.52/41% TDdef 57% sub 1.1. UFC method KO 6 (22%) DEC 7 (26%) SUB 14 (52%). Last 5: Shahbazyan W UD R3; de Ridder W TKO R4; Vettori W UD R3; Hernandez L UD R3; Imavov L UD R3. ESPN striking Jun 6, 2026 vs Edmen Shahbazyan: TSL 91, TSA 196, SSL 89, SSA 194, 46.43%, KD 0. Ignore the ESPN Brazil label. Duncan 15-2-0 GB. ufcstats SLpM 4.45 acc 57% SApM 2.36 def 54% TD 0.43/20% TDdef 57% sub 0.0. UFC method KO 10 (67%) DEC 4 (27%) SUB 1 (7%). Last 5: Cannonier W UD R3; Dolidze W UD R3; Tulio W KO R2 3:20; Anders W strikes R1 3:53; Pulyaev W UD R3. n=100: Allen 20, Duncan 80. KO/TKO 53, SUB 15, DEC 32. Hist R1 23 R2 15 R3 15 R4 9 R5 6.

ESPN striking, clinch, ground

Brendan Allen

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Jun 6, 2026Edmen ShahbazyanUFC Fight NightW9/1452/14218/18911968919446.43%062%38%100%
Oct 18, 2025Reinier de RidderUFC Fight NightW1/20/60/097134223772.39%075%58%0%
Jul 19, 2025Marvin VettoriUFC 318W17/2276/1817/711923311122451.07%078%44%100%
Feb 22, 2025Anthony HernandezUFC Fight NightL3/34/153/45371142674.65%0100%42%75%
Sep 28, 2024Nassourdine ImavovUFC Fight NightL2/312/296/65682305268.29%080%49%100%
Apr 6, 2024Chris CurtisUFC Fight NightW25/3468/16415/1612824211222252.89%074%42%94%
Nov 18, 2023Paul CraigUFC Fight NightW2/27/123/35264324381.25%0100%70%100%
Jun 24, 2023Bruno SilvaUFC Fight NightW2/312/281/14069305657.97%183%49%100%
Feb 25, 2023Andre MunizUFC Fight NightW12/1619/729/10641294210249.61%075%28%90%
Oct 1, 2022Krzysztof JotkoUFC Fight NightW1/10/21/112163675.00%0100%25%100%
Jun 11, 2022Jacob MalkounUFC 275W2/419/437/889122457472.95%050%58%88%
Feb 5, 2022Sam AlveyUFC Fight NightW13/1412/267/73654365466.67%193%47%100%
Dec 4, 2021Chris CurtisUFC Fight NightL9/923/497/84472437161.11%0100%49%88%
Jul 24, 2021Punahele SorianoUFC Fight NightW32/4043/14510/11942119421144.55%080%30%91%
Apr 24, 2021Karl RobersonUFC 261W1/14/114/4152291668.18%0100%36%100%
Nov 14, 2020Sean StricklandUFC Fight NightL11/1427/6112/135392519057.61%079%44%92%
Jun 27, 2020Kyle DaukausUFC Fight NightW8/94/161/179109416672.48%190%56%100%
Feb 29, 2020Tom BreeseUFC Fight NightW1/11/20/03852202973.08%0100%65%0%
Oct 18, 2019Kevin HollandUFC Fight NightW1/13/121/12341102256.10%0100%37%100%
Jul 16, 2019Aaron JefferyDana White's Contender SeriesW1/13/72/21829142362.07%160%53%100%
Feb 22, 2019Moses MurriettaLFA 61W------------
Sep 21, 2018Tim HileyLFA 50W------------
Jun 22, 2018Larry CroweLFA 43W------------
Jan 26, 2018Anthony HernandezLFA 32L------------
Aug 4, 2017Chris HarrisLFA 18W------------
Jun 23, 2017Eryk AndersLFA 14L------------
Feb 10, 2017Jon KirkLFA 3W------------
Dec 2, 2016Sidney WheelerValor Fights 39W------------
Sep 23, 2016Matt JonesMCF ProductionsW------------
Jul 22, 2016Clovis HancockLFC 58W0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
May 14, 2016Charlie RaderWFCW0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Mar 25, 2016Trevin GilesLFC 52L------------
Jan 9, 2016Kory MoegenburgWFCW------------
Aug 22, 2015Zebulon StroudWFCW------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Jun 6, 2026Edmen ShahbazyanUFC Fight NightW129180000.00014025%
Oct 18, 2025Reinier de RidderUFC Fight NightW22000020.000110100%
Jul 19, 2025Marvin VettoriUFC 318W11330000.00034075%
Feb 22, 2025Anthony HernandezUFC Fight NightL00220030.0000100%
Sep 28, 2024Nassourdine ImavovUFC Fight NightL22480000.000110010%
Apr 6, 2024Chris CurtisUFC Fight NightW00480000.000613046%
Nov 18, 2023Paul CraigUFC Fight NightW11010000.000220100%
Jun 24, 2023Bruno SilvaUFC Fight NightW33220000.0000200%
Feb 25, 2023Andre MunizUFC Fight NightW00000000.000110100%
Oct 1, 2022Krzysztof JotkoUFC Fight NightW00000010.000110100%
Jun 11, 2022Jacob MalkounUFC 275W00010020.000220100%
Feb 5, 2022Sam AlveyUFC Fight NightW11120000.0000100%
Dec 4, 2021Chris CurtisUFC Fight NightL11340000.0000300%
Jul 24, 2021Punahele SorianoUFC Fight NightW56490000.0000100%
Apr 24, 2021Karl RobersonUFC 261W00000000.000220100%
Nov 14, 2020Sean StricklandUFC Fight NightL00120000.0000000%
Jun 27, 2020Kyle DaukausUFC Fight NightW00330040.0000000%
Feb 29, 2020Tom BreeseUFC Fight NightW11120000.0000100%
Oct 18, 2019Kevin HollandUFC Fight NightW00001120.00023067%
Jul 16, 2019Aaron JefferyDana White's Contender SeriesW24461100.00014025%
Feb 22, 2019Moses MurriettaLFA 61W------------
Sep 21, 2018Tim HileyLFA 50W------------
Jun 22, 2018Larry CroweLFA 43W------------
Jan 26, 2018Anthony HernandezLFA 32L------------
Aug 4, 2017Chris HarrisLFA 18W------------
Jun 23, 2017Eryk AndersLFA 14L------------
Feb 10, 2017Jon KirkLFA 3W------------
Dec 2, 2016Sidney WheelerValor Fights 39W------------
Sep 23, 2016Matt JonesMCF ProductionsW------------
Jul 22, 2016Clovis HancockLFC 58W00000000.0000000%
May 14, 2016Charlie RaderWFCW00000000.0000000%
Mar 25, 2016Trevin GilesLFC 52L------------
Jan 9, 2016Kory MoegenburgWFCW------------
Aug 22, 2015Zebulon StroudWFCW------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Jun 6, 2026Edmen ShahbazyanUFC Fight NightW000000000000
Oct 18, 2025Reinier de RidderUFC Fight NightW00192700000001
Jul 19, 2025Marvin VettoriUFC 318W0071000000000
Feb 22, 2025Anthony HernandezUFC Fight NightL002200000001
Sep 28, 2024Nassourdine ImavovUFC Fight NightL004400000000
Apr 6, 2024Chris CurtisUFC Fight NightW000000000000
Nov 18, 2023Paul CraigUFC Fight NightW00192400000002
Jun 24, 2023Bruno SilvaUFC Fight NightW00101900000001
Feb 25, 2023Andre MunizUFC Fight NightW002400000002
Oct 1, 2022Krzysztof JotkoUFC Fight NightW001200000001
Jun 11, 2022Jacob MalkounUFC 275W00171800000000
Feb 5, 2022Sam AlveyUFC Fight NightW002400000001
Dec 4, 2021Chris CurtisUFC Fight NightL000000000001
Jul 24, 2021Punahele SorianoUFC Fight NightW000000000000
Apr 24, 2021Karl RobersonUFC 261W000000000001
Nov 14, 2020Sean StricklandUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Jun 27, 2020Kyle DaukausUFC Fight NightW11243600412100
Feb 29, 2020Tom BreeseUFC Fight NightW11152200201010
Oct 18, 2019Kevin HollandUFC Fight NightW004700531014
Jul 16, 2019Aaron JefferyDana White's Contender SeriesW001200311011
Feb 22, 2019Moses MurriettaLFA 61W------------
Sep 21, 2018Tim HileyLFA 50W------------
Jun 22, 2018Larry CroweLFA 43W------------
Jan 26, 2018Anthony HernandezLFA 32L------------
Aug 4, 2017Chris HarrisLFA 18W------------
Jun 23, 2017Eryk AndersLFA 14L------------
Feb 10, 2017Jon KirkLFA 3W------------
Dec 2, 2016Sidney WheelerValor Fights 39W------------
Sep 23, 2016Matt JonesMCF ProductionsW------------
Jul 22, 2016Clovis HancockLFC 58W000000000000
May 14, 2016Charlie RaderWFCW000000000000
Mar 25, 2016Trevin GilesLFC 52L------------
Jan 9, 2016Kory MoegenburgWFCW------------
Aug 22, 2015Zebulon StroudWFCW------------

Christian Leroy Duncan

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Jul 18, 2026Jared CannonierUFC Fight NightW9/1020/5814/14941486811763.51%094%44%100%
Mar 21, 2026Roman DolidzeUFC Fight NightW6/1215/4530/3578125549962.40%050%35%86%
Nov 8, 2025Marco TulioUFC Fight NightW2/69/259/124066234660.61%143%41%75%
Aug 9, 2025Eryk AndersUFC Fight NightW2/37/2211/122746244358.70%175%35%92%
Mar 22, 2025Andrey PulyaevUFC Fight NightW5/1521/6421/261161877314162.03%061%40%81%
Jul 27, 2024Gregory RodriguesUFC 304L5/89/229/105377294868.83%070%46%90%
Mar 2, 2024Claudio RibeiroUFC Fight NightW7/913/2811/1375105659271.43%080%63%90%
Nov 18, 2023Denis TiuliulinUFC Fight NightW6/729/4711/1190123658773.17%189%68%100%
Jun 17, 2023Armen PetrosyanUFC Fight NightL8/1622/7128/34731365912253.68%050%32%82%
Mar 18, 2023Duško TodorovićUFC 286W2/22/74/4141991473.68%0100%38%100%
Nov 12, 2022Marian DimitrovCage Warriors 146W------------
Apr 2, 2022Djati MélanCage Warriors 136W------------
Dec 10, 2021Justin MooreCage Warriors 131W------------
Jun 24, 2021Will CurrieCage Warriors 123W------------
Mar 18, 2021Will CurrieCage Warriors 120W------------
Dec 12, 2020Lukasz MarcinkowskiCage Warriors 119W------------
Sep 26, 2020Kyle McClurkinCage Warriors 116W------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Jul 18, 2026Jared CannonierUFC Fight NightW8817260010.00013033%
Mar 21, 2026Roman DolidzeUFC Fight NightW00140000.0000200%
Nov 8, 2025Marco TulioUFC Fight NightW11000000.000110100%
Aug 9, 2025Eryk AndersUFC Fight NightW11111100.0000000%
Mar 22, 2025Andrey PulyaevUFC Fight NightW121314230000.0000200%
Jul 27, 2024Gregory RodriguesUFC 304L22460000.0000000%
Mar 2, 2024Claudio RibeiroUFC Fight NightW11477700.00012050%
Nov 18, 2023Denis TiuliulinUFC Fight NightW2212132200.0000200%
Jun 17, 2023Armen PetrosyanUFC Fight NightL00000000.0000300%
Mar 18, 2023Duško TodorovićUFC 286W00110000.0000000%
Nov 12, 2022Marian DimitrovCage Warriors 146W------------
Apr 2, 2022Djati MélanCage Warriors 136W------------
Dec 10, 2021Justin MooreCage Warriors 131W------------
Jun 24, 2021Will CurrieCage Warriors 123W------------
Mar 18, 2021Will CurrieCage Warriors 120W------------
Dec 12, 2020Lukasz MarcinkowskiCage Warriors 119W------------
Sep 26, 2020Kyle McClurkinCage Warriors 116W------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Jul 18, 2026Jared CannonierUFC Fight NightW000100000000
Mar 21, 2026Roman DolidzeUFC Fight NightW002300000000
Nov 8, 2025Marco TulioUFC Fight NightW002200000000
Aug 9, 2025Eryk AndersUFC Fight NightW001300000000
Mar 22, 2025Andrey PulyaevUFC Fight NightW000000000000
Jul 27, 2024Gregory RodriguesUFC 304L000000000000
Mar 2, 2024Claudio RibeiroUFC Fight NightW00222700000000
Nov 18, 2023Denis TiuliulinUFC Fight NightW003500000000
Jun 17, 2023Armen PetrosyanUFC Fight NightL001100000000
Mar 18, 2023Duško TodorovićUFC 286W000000000000
Nov 12, 2022Marian DimitrovCage Warriors 146W------------
Apr 2, 2022Djati MélanCage Warriors 136W------------
Dec 10, 2021Justin MooreCage Warriors 131W------------
Jun 24, 2021Will CurrieCage Warriors 123W------------
Mar 18, 2021Will CurrieCage Warriors 120W------------
Dec 12, 2020Lukasz MarcinkowskiCage Warriors 119W------------
Sep 26, 2020Kyle McClurkinCage Warriors 116W------------
How the 100-sim board works
Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert

Simcage Pro · n=100

PASS

57%

Camilo

43%

Herbert

PASS. 57 is under 63. Small striking sample.

54%

KO/TKO

18%

SUB

28%

DEC

Finish-round histogram

24R1
31R2
17R3
28DEC

Goes the distance 28%

Pace SLpM 5.41, SApM 6.39, TD avg/15 4.58. Model output, not an official result. No betting line. Camilo 11-3-0 BR. SLpM 2.22 acc 43% SApM 3.05 def 66% TD 4.16/53% TDdef 0% (do not lean on 0%) sub 0.6. Sig 56/130. Last 3: Sadykhov W strikes R1 1:31; Borshchev W UD R3; Green L RNC R2 3:43. Herbert 14-6-1 GB. SLpM 3.19 acc 41% SApM 3.34 def 52% TD 0.42/21% TDdef 66% sub 0.0. Last 5: Nallo W strikes R1 2:05; Padilla L split R3; Bedoya W UD R3; Ziam L UD R3; Klein D R3. n=100: Camilo 57, Herbert 43. KO/TKO 54, SUB 18, DEC 28. Hist R1 24 R2 31 R3 17.

ESPN striking, clinch, ground

Matheus Camilo

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Jun 27, 2026Nazim SadykhovUFC Fight NightW0/01/41/241041040.00%10%38%50%
Nov 15, 2025Viacheslav BorshchevUFC 322W5/526/776/848104399346.15%0100%34%75%
May 17, 2025Gabe GreenUFC Fight NightL4/65/133/53348132768.75%067%38%60%
Dec 14, 2024Dorobshokh NabotovZ-Fight Night 2W------------
Oct 11, 2024Jhonasky SojoTuff-N-Uff 139W------------
Sep 17, 2023Dorian RamosFury Fighting Championship 83W------------
May 6, 2023Alberto RomoLights Out Xtreme Fighting 9W------------
Feb 5, 2023Jake HeffernanFury Fighting Championship 74W------------
Jun 26, 2022Tyrek MalveauxFury Fighting Championship 65W------------
Feb 11, 2022Aric MercadoFury Fighting Championship 57L------------
Aug 6, 2021Darnell White Jr.XFC 45W------------
Dec 3, 2020Wadson MottaShooto Brasil 105W------------
Nov 23, 2019Derick BorgesShooto Brazil 98L------------
Feb 7, 2019Thomas BryanBFC 1W------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Jun 27, 2026Nazim SadykhovUFC Fight NightW00000000.0000000%
Nov 15, 2025Viacheslav BorshchevUFC 322W11010000.000510050%
May 17, 2025Gabe GreenUFC Fight NightL00010000.00023067%
Dec 14, 2024Dorobshokh NabotovZ-Fight Night 2W------------
Oct 11, 2024Jhonasky SojoTuff-N-Uff 139W------------
Sep 17, 2023Dorian RamosFury Fighting Championship 83W------------
May 6, 2023Alberto RomoLights Out Xtreme Fighting 9W------------
Feb 5, 2023Jake HeffernanFury Fighting Championship 74W------------
Jun 26, 2022Tyrek MalveauxFury Fighting Championship 65W------------
Feb 11, 2022Aric MercadoFury Fighting Championship 57L------------
Aug 6, 2021Darnell White Jr.XFC 45W------------
Dec 3, 2020Wadson MottaShooto Brasil 105W------------
Nov 23, 2019Derick BorgesShooto Brazil 98L------------
Feb 7, 2019Thomas BryanBFC 1W------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Jun 27, 2026Nazim SadykhovUFC Fight NightW002400000000
Nov 15, 2025Viacheslav BorshchevUFC 322W001100000000
May 17, 2025Gabe GreenUFC Fight NightL001200000001
Dec 14, 2024Dorobshokh NabotovZ-Fight Night 2W------------
Oct 11, 2024Jhonasky SojoTuff-N-Uff 139W------------
Sep 17, 2023Dorian RamosFury Fighting Championship 83W------------
May 6, 2023Alberto RomoLights Out Xtreme Fighting 9W------------
Feb 5, 2023Jake HeffernanFury Fighting Championship 74W------------
Jun 26, 2022Tyrek MalveauxFury Fighting Championship 65W------------
Feb 11, 2022Aric MercadoFury Fighting Championship 57L------------
Aug 6, 2021Darnell White Jr.XFC 45W------------
Dec 3, 2020Wadson MottaShooto Brasil 105W------------
Nov 23, 2019Derick BorgesShooto Brazil 98L------------
Feb 7, 2019Thomas BryanBFC 1W------------

Jai Herbert

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Apr 18, 2026Mandel NalloUFC Fight NightW0/06/131/13043192869.77%20%67%100%
Mar 22, 2025Chris PadillaUFC Fight NightL9/1719/929/11591433812241.26%053%21%82%
Aug 3, 2024Rolando BedoyaUFC Fight NightW24/3347/1308/10891858217848.11%175%36%80%
Jul 22, 2023Farés ZiamUFC Fight NightL12/167/7919/24581504913438.67%074%9%79%
Mar 18, 2023Ludovit KleinUFC 286D6/87/4811/1296168439057.14%090%25%92%
Jul 23, 2022Kyle NelsonUFC Fight NightW6/713/403/384116366472.41%094%37%100%
Mar 19, 2022Ilia TopuriaUFC Fight NightL1/217/561/15094226353.19%150%33%100%
Oct 23, 2021Khama WorthyUFC Fight NightW1/116/332/52547244653.19%1100%52%40%
Jun 26, 2021Renato MoicanoUFC Fight NightL0/14/213/3183872547.37%00%19%100%
Jul 25, 2020Francisco TrinaldoUFC Fight NightL3/411/552/23790217041.11%180%24%100%
Oct 26, 2019Cain CarrizosaCage Warriors 109W------------
Jun 29, 2019Jack GrantCage Warriors 106W------------
Mar 2, 2019Steve O'KeefeCage Warriors 102W------------
Dec 8, 2018Joe McColganCage Warriors 100W------------
Jun 16, 2018Erdi KaratasCage Warriors 94W------------
May 12, 2017Rick SelvarajahBAMMA 29W------------
Dec 16, 2016Rhys McKeeBAMMA 27L------------
May 14, 2016Tony MorganBAMMA 25W------------
Nov 14, 2015Ben BennettBAMMA 23W0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Jun 20, 2015Martin SweeneyFull Contact Contender 13W------------
Mar 28, 2015Omid MohamadiFull Contact Contender 12W------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Apr 18, 2026Mandel NalloUFC Fight NightW00010000.0000000%
Mar 22, 2025Chris PadillaUFC Fight NightL12000000.0000100%
Aug 3, 2024Rolando BedoyaUFC Fight NightW33010000.00023067%
Jul 22, 2023Farés ZiamUFC Fight NightL1115000000.0000600%
Mar 18, 2023Ludovit KleinUFC 286D1111120000.00013033%
Jul 23, 2022Kyle NelsonUFC Fight NightW1111220000.0000100%
Mar 19, 2022Ilia TopuriaUFC Fight NightL00110000.0000000%
Oct 23, 2021Khama WorthyUFC Fight NightW00220000.0000000%
Jun 26, 2021Renato MoicanoUFC Fight NightL00000000.0000000%
Jul 25, 2020Francisco TrinaldoUFC Fight NightL11450000.0000000%
Oct 26, 2019Cain CarrizosaCage Warriors 109W------------
Jun 29, 2019Jack GrantCage Warriors 106W------------
Mar 2, 2019Steve O'KeefeCage Warriors 102W------------
Dec 8, 2018Joe McColganCage Warriors 100W------------
Jun 16, 2018Erdi KaratasCage Warriors 94W------------
May 12, 2017Rick SelvarajahBAMMA 29W------------
Dec 16, 2016Rhys McKeeBAMMA 27L------------
May 14, 2016Tony MorganBAMMA 25W------------
Nov 14, 2015Ben BennettBAMMA 23W00000000.0000000%
Jun 20, 2015Martin SweeneyFull Contact Contender 13W------------
Mar 28, 2015Omid MohamadiFull Contact Contender 12W------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Apr 18, 2026Mandel NalloUFC Fight NightW00121300000000
Mar 22, 2025Chris PadillaUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Aug 3, 2024Rolando BedoyaUFC Fight NightW000100000000
Jul 22, 2023Farés ZiamUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Mar 18, 2023Ludovit KleinUFC 286D007900000000
Jul 23, 2022Kyle NelsonUFC Fight NightW001100000000
Mar 19, 2022Ilia TopuriaUFC Fight NightL002300000000
Oct 23, 2021Khama WorthyUFC Fight NightW003500000000
Jun 26, 2021Renato MoicanoUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Jul 25, 2020Francisco TrinaldoUFC Fight NightL000300312000
Oct 26, 2019Cain CarrizosaCage Warriors 109W------------
Jun 29, 2019Jack GrantCage Warriors 106W------------
Mar 2, 2019Steve O'KeefeCage Warriors 102W------------
Dec 8, 2018Joe McColganCage Warriors 100W------------
Jun 16, 2018Erdi KaratasCage Warriors 94W------------
May 12, 2017Rick SelvarajahBAMMA 29W------------
Dec 16, 2016Rhys McKeeBAMMA 27L------------
May 14, 2016Tony MorganBAMMA 25W------------
Nov 14, 2015Ben BennettBAMMA 23W000000000000
Jun 20, 2015Martin SweeneyFull Contact Contender 13W------------
Mar 28, 2015Omid MohamadiFull Contact Contender 12W------------
How the 100-sim board works
Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza

Simcage Pro · n=100

PASS

60%

Godinez

40%

Souza

PASS. 48 of Godinez's 60 sim wins are decisions, matching her 79% decision share. 60 is under 63.

20%

KO/TKO

16%

SUB

64%

DEC

Finish-round histogram

8R1
18R2
10R3
64DEC

Goes the distance 64%

Pace SLpM 8.54, SApM 7.83, TD avg/15 3.44. Model output, not an official result. No betting line. Loopy Godinez 14-6-0 MX. SLpM 4.43 acc 49% SApM 3.94 def 62% TD 2.99/42% TDdef 76% sub 0.8. Method DEC 11 (79%). Last 5: Suarez L RNC R2 2:29; Andrade W UD R3; Polastri W UD R3; Dern L UD R3; Jandiroba L UD R3. Souza 17-6-0 BR. SLpM 4.11 acc 57% SApM 3.89 def 53% TD 0.45/13% TDdef 53% sub 0.2. Last 5: Carnelossi W KO R1 1:34; Brasil W UD R3; Rodriguez L split R3; Hill L split R3; Jauregui W RNC R1 3:02. n=100: Godinez 60, Souza 40. KO/TKO 20, SUB 16, DEC 64. Hist R1 8 R2 18 R3 10.

ESPN striking, clinch, ground

Loopy Godinez

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Apr 11, 2026Tatiana SuarezUFC 327L0/01/51/12533182575.76%0100%70%100%
Aug 16, 2025Jessica AndradeUFC 319W6/684/1854/411922610721352.65%086%47%100%
Mar 29, 2025Julia PolastriUFC Fight NightW1/370/1344/41141848415061.96%082%53%100%
Aug 3, 2024Mackenzie DernUFC Fight NightL9/1543/1146/7721526714647.37%070%39%86%
Mar 30, 2024Virna JandirobaUFC Fight NightL7/1021/702/250116389543.10%079%32%100%
Nov 11, 2023Tabatha RicciUFC 295W6/1077/1952/21012259822144.89%079%40%100%
Sep 16, 2023Elise ReedNoche UFCW1/112/212/23751213172.55%1100%60%100%
May 20, 2023Emily DucoteUFC Fight NightW8/1399/20514/1413324813224653.63%067%50%100%
Apr 8, 2023Cynthia CalvilloUFC 287W15/2465/1447/10931888718049.47%062%44%70%
Aug 13, 2022Angela HillUFC Fight NightL19/2765/2021/1982509224139.20%070%34%100%
May 7, 2022Ariane CarnelossiUFC 274W2/49/150/0130173466175.14%083%74%0%
Nov 20, 2021Loma LookboonmeeUFC Fight NightW5/511/291/16498234565.31%0100%39%100%
Oct 16, 2021Luana CarolinaUFC Fight NightL2/512/333/54576235459.21%057%38%60%
Oct 9, 2021Silvana Gomez JuarezUFC Fight NightW2/26/80/01820111390.00%0100%80%100%
Apr 17, 2021Jessica PenneUFC Fight NightL4/531/612/268106407464.15%088%49%67%
Oct 30, 2020Vanessa DemopoulosLFA 94W------------
Nov 30, 2019Lindsay GarbattBTC 8W------------
Aug 23, 2019Felisha MagallanCombate Americas 42W------------
May 18, 2019Ashlee MastinSCLW------------
Jun 30, 2018Jennah MacallisterSCLW------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Apr 11, 2026Tatiana SuarezUFC 327L11550000.000220100%
Aug 16, 2025Jessica AndradeUFC 319W68580000.00011407%
Mar 29, 2025Julia PolastriUFC Fight NightW66110000.000511046%
Aug 3, 2024Mackenzie DernUFC Fight NightL78220010.00023067%
Mar 30, 2024Virna JandirobaUFC Fight NightL44370010.0000000%
Nov 11, 2023Tabatha RicciUFC 295W99230000.0000100%
Sep 16, 2023Elise ReedNoche UFCW33000000.000550100%
May 20, 2023Emily DucoteUFC Fight NightW45790000.00013033%
Apr 8, 2023Cynthia CalvilloUFC 287W00020000.0000200%
Aug 13, 2022Angela HillUFC Fight NightL007110000.00013033%
May 7, 2022Ariane CarnelossiUFC 274W44480000.000880100%
Nov 20, 2021Loma LookboonmeeUFC Fight NightW11012200.000512042%
Oct 16, 2021Luana CarolinaUFC Fight NightL22050000.000215013%
Oct 9, 2021Silvana Gomez JuarezUFC Fight NightW00221100.00056083%
Apr 17, 2021Jessica PenneUFC Fight NightL33010000.00039033%
Oct 30, 2020Vanessa DemopoulosLFA 94W------------
Nov 30, 2019Lindsay GarbattBTC 8W------------
Aug 23, 2019Felisha MagallanCombate Americas 42W------------
May 18, 2019Ashlee MastinSCLW------------
Jun 30, 2018Jennah MacallisterSCLW------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Apr 11, 2026Tatiana SuarezUFC 327L00101300000000
Aug 16, 2025Jessica AndradeUFC 319W002200000000
Mar 29, 2025Julia PolastriUFC Fight NightW220000000000
Aug 3, 2024Mackenzie DernUFC Fight NightL000000000001
Mar 30, 2024Virna JandirobaUFC Fight NightL001200000000
Nov 11, 2023Tabatha RicciUFC 295W002200000000
Sep 16, 2023Elise ReedNoche UFCW003400000006
May 20, 2023Emily DucoteUFC Fight NightW000000000000
Apr 8, 2023Cynthia CalvilloUFC 287W000000000000
Aug 13, 2022Angela HillUFC Fight NightL000000000000
May 7, 2022Ariane CarnelossiUFC 274W44232600000002
Nov 20, 2021Loma LookboonmeeUFC Fight NightW003600000001
Oct 16, 2021Luana CarolinaUFC Fight NightL004400000000
Oct 9, 2021Silvana Gomez JuarezUFC Fight NightW000000000001
Apr 17, 2021Jessica PenneUFC Fight NightL000101000000
Oct 30, 2020Vanessa DemopoulosLFA 94W------------
Nov 30, 2019Lindsay GarbattBTC 8W------------
Aug 23, 2019Felisha MagallanCombate Americas 42W------------
May 18, 2019Ashlee MastinSCLW------------
Jun 30, 2018Jennah MacallisterSCLW------------

Ketlen Souza

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Jun 6, 2026Ariane CarnelossiUFC Fight NightW0/010/142/21317131776.47%10%73%100%
Feb 7, 2026Bruna BrasilUFC Fight NightW6/1615/383/564109336958.72%055%43%60%
Aug 2, 2025Piera RodriguezUFC Fight NightL7/1024/6417/18861395610361.87%077%40%94%
Feb 15, 2025Angela HillUFC Fight NightL12/1539/9910/14771467013852.74%083%41%71%
Sep 14, 2024Yazmin JaureguiUFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFCW4/59/223/32135213560.00%186%48%100%
Apr 27, 2024Marnic MannUFC Fight NightW23/2834/6314/14931328011670.45%085%55%100%
Jun 3, 2023Karine SilvaUFC Fight NightL0/00/00/01100100.00%00%0%0%
Jan 18, 2023Kristina WilliamsInvicta FC 51W------------
Sep 28, 2022Maiju SuotamaInvicta FC 49W------------
Aug 5, 2021Gisele MoreiraStandout Fighting Tournament 28W------------
May 29, 2021Joane MilenStar Combat 1 - Evento de MMAW------------
May 14, 2021Erianny CastanedaSCFW------------
Sep 4, 2020Dayane CardosoMr. Cage Championship - Mr. Cage 42L------------
May 24, 2019Ariane CarnelossiFuture FC 5L------------
Mar 16, 2019Jessica LuannaMr. Cage Championship vs. Rei da SelvaW------------
Jul 28, 2018Erilene Rayla NascimentoMr. Cage ChampionshipW------------
Mar 31, 2018Fabiulane MeloCSYSLL------------
Mar 10, 2018Andreia CerdeiraMr. Cage ChampionshipW------------
Dec 21, 2017Paula Lira PontesBack Fish MMA - Back Fish MMA 2W------------
Sep 9, 2017Davina MacielMr. Cage ChampionshipW------------
Jul 8, 2017Jamily SolarthLuta Tribal 1 - Pacquiao vs. CapoeiraW------------
May 18, 2017Erilene Rayla NascimentoJPFN - Jovem Pan Fight Night 1W------------
Dec 10, 2016Roberta Camila RochaAFCW------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Jun 6, 2026Ariane CarnelossiUFC Fight NightW00000000.0000000%
Feb 7, 2026Bruna BrasilUFC Fight NightW66340000.00018012%
Aug 2, 2025Piera RodriguezUFC Fight NightL33580000.0000300%
Feb 15, 2025Angela HillUFC Fight NightL78220000.0000200%
Sep 14, 2024Yazmin JaureguiUFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFCW22220000.0000000%
Apr 27, 2024Marnic MannUFC Fight NightW55240010.00012050%
Jun 3, 2023Karine SilvaUFC Fight NightL00000000.0000000%
Jan 18, 2023Kristina WilliamsInvicta FC 51W------------
Sep 28, 2022Maiju SuotamaInvicta FC 49W------------
Aug 5, 2021Gisele MoreiraStandout Fighting Tournament 28W------------
May 29, 2021Joane MilenStar Combat 1 - Evento de MMAW------------
May 14, 2021Erianny CastanedaSCFW------------
Sep 4, 2020Dayane CardosoMr. Cage Championship - Mr. Cage 42L------------
May 24, 2019Ariane CarnelossiFuture FC 5L------------
Mar 16, 2019Jessica LuannaMr. Cage Championship vs. Rei da SelvaW------------
Jul 28, 2018Erilene Rayla NascimentoMr. Cage ChampionshipW------------
Mar 31, 2018Fabiulane MeloCSYSLL------------
Mar 10, 2018Andreia CerdeiraMr. Cage ChampionshipW------------
Dec 21, 2017Paula Lira PontesBack Fish MMA - Back Fish MMA 2W------------
Sep 9, 2017Davina MacielMr. Cage ChampionshipW------------
Jul 8, 2017Jamily SolarthLuta Tribal 1 - Pacquiao vs. CapoeiraW------------
May 18, 2017Erilene Rayla NascimentoJPFN - Jovem Pan Fight Night 1W------------
Dec 10, 2016Roberta Camila RochaAFCW------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Jun 6, 2026Ariane CarnelossiUFC Fight NightW001100000000
Feb 7, 2026Bruna BrasilUFC Fight NightW000000000000
Aug 2, 2025Piera RodriguezUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Feb 15, 2025Angela HillUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Sep 14, 2024Yazmin JaureguiUFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFCW001100000001
Apr 27, 2024Marnic MannUFC Fight NightW002200000000
Jun 3, 2023Karine SilvaUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Jan 18, 2023Kristina WilliamsInvicta FC 51W------------
Sep 28, 2022Maiju SuotamaInvicta FC 49W------------
Aug 5, 2021Gisele MoreiraStandout Fighting Tournament 28W------------
May 29, 2021Joane MilenStar Combat 1 - Evento de MMAW------------
May 14, 2021Erianny CastanedaSCFW------------
Sep 4, 2020Dayane CardosoMr. Cage Championship - Mr. Cage 42L------------
May 24, 2019Ariane CarnelossiFuture FC 5L------------
Mar 16, 2019Jessica LuannaMr. Cage Championship vs. Rei da SelvaW------------
Jul 28, 2018Erilene Rayla NascimentoMr. Cage ChampionshipW------------
Mar 31, 2018Fabiulane MeloCSYSLL------------
Mar 10, 2018Andreia CerdeiraMr. Cage ChampionshipW------------
Dec 21, 2017Paula Lira PontesBack Fish MMA - Back Fish MMA 2W------------
Sep 9, 2017Davina MacielMr. Cage ChampionshipW------------
Jul 8, 2017Jamily SolarthLuta Tribal 1 - Pacquiao vs. CapoeiraW------------
May 18, 2017Erilene Rayla NascimentoJPFN - Jovem Pan Fight Night 1W------------
Dec 10, 2016Roberta Camila RochaAFCW------------
How the 100-sim board works
Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III

Simcage Pro · n=100

PASSFree preview

50%

Fili

50%

Kamaka

PASS. Both absorb more than they land.

35%

KO/TKO

7%

SUB

58%

DEC

Finish-round histogram

11R1
13R2
18R3
58DEC

Goes the distance 58%

Pace SLpM 9.38, SApM 10.58, TD avg/15 3.69. Model output, not an official result. No betting line. Fili 25-14-0 US. SLpM 3.89 acc 37% SApM 4.55 def 49% TD 2.24/46% TDdef 71% sub 0.2. Last 5: Oliveira L strikes R2 4:56; Delgado L split R3; Rodriguez W split R3; Costa L guillotine R1 4:30; Swanson W split R3. Kamaka 18-8-1 US. SLpM 5.49 acc 59% SApM 6.03 def 55% TD 1.45/53% TDdef 55% sub 0.2. Last 5: Riley L strikes R1 3:03; Hope W split R3; Chavez D R3; Brown L split R3; Pearce L strikes R2 4:28. n=100: Fili 50, Kamaka 50. KO/TKO 35, SUB 7, DEC 58. Hist R1 11 R2 13 R3 18.

ESPN striking, clinch, ground

Andre Fili

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Jun 20, 2026Vinicius OliveiraUFC Fight NightL9/929/1010/0401134011335.40%0100%30%0%
Mar 14, 2026Jose Miguel DelgadoUFC Fight NightL11/1345/1195/7701546214145.45%085%38%71%
Aug 9, 2025Christian RodriguezUFC Fight NightW5/951/1626/8741936418238.34%060%32%75%
Feb 22, 2025Melquizael CostaUFC Fight NightL3/44/200/072472429.17%075%20%0%
Jun 29, 2024Cub SwansonUFC 303W3/1144/1085/7701516714746.36%059%42%71%
Feb 10, 2024Dan IgeUFC Fight NightL1/57/280/083383324.24%020%25%0%
Dec 16, 2023Lucas AlmeidaUFC 296W3/64/141/12542203659.52%150%55%100%
Jul 22, 2023Nathaniel WoodUFC Fight NightL7/1040/1276/7761795815142.46%170%34%86%
Sep 17, 2022Bill AlgeoUFC Fight NightW6/1048/1245/7671515914244.37%060%38%71%
Apr 30, 2022Joanderson BritoUFC Fight NightL0/06/150/061561540.00%00%40%0%
Jun 26, 2021Daniel PinedaUFC Fight NightD3/324/541/24478346756.41%0100%48%50%
Oct 31, 2020Bryce MitchellUFC Fight NightL5/717/591/15197277252.58%071%31%100%
Jun 13, 2020Charles JourdainUFC Fight NightW5/1034/1513/4521834417128.42%050%23%75%
Jan 18, 2020Sodiq YusuffUFC 246L7/836/1283/4561524914536.84%083%28%75%
Jul 13, 2019Sheymon MoraesUFC Fight NightW2/412/451/12058195534.48%150%32%100%
Feb 17, 2019Myles JuryUFC Fight NightW9/1665/17924/31982269822643.36%056%36%77%
Aug 25, 2018Michael JohnsonUFC Fight NightL11/1224/1021/1401203711733.33%092%24%100%
Jan 27, 2018Dennis BermudezUFC Fight NightW2/569/2095/6932428022938.43%056%33%83%
Oct 21, 2017Artem LobovUFC Fight NightW5/927/10817/17761665514545.78%156%27%100%
Jul 29, 2017Calvin KattarUFC 214L9/1448/16413/15752057320236.59%064%30%87%
Oct 1, 2016Hacran DiasUFC Fight NightW3/519/742/4721514512447.68%150%32%73%
Apr 23, 2016Yair RodriguezUFC 197L3/46/220/12040113150.00%080%25%50%
Nov 21, 2015Gabriel BenitezUFC Fight NightW3/310/342/41642164238.10%1100%29%50%
Mar 21, 2015Godofredo PepeyUFC Fight NightL0/00/40/0391633.33%050%0%0%
Oct 25, 2014Felipe ArantesUFC 179W8/118/371/6661354210248.89%074%30%17%
Apr 26, 2014Max HollowayUFC 172L6/1618/9516/18461414413932.62%043%18%90%
Oct 19, 2013Jeremy LarsenUFC 166W3/331/754/5631135510555.75%0100%49%80%
May 3, 2013Adrian DiazWFC 5W0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Nov 15, 2012Enoch WilsonTPF 15W------------
Sep 7, 2012Ricky WallaceTPF 14W0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Jun 9, 2012Jesse BowenWFCW0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Apr 21, 2012Matt MuramotoKOTCW0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Mar 3, 2012Alexander CrispimCCFCW0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Jan 7, 2012Vaymond DennisWFCW0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Oct 8, 2011Tony RiosCapitol Fighting ChampionshipsW0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Oct 2, 2010Derrick BurnsedRebel FighterL0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Aug 21, 2010Tony RevelesRebel FighterW------------
May 1, 2010Justin SmitleyGladiator ChallengeW0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Mar 6, 2010Cain CamposGladiator ChallengeW0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Dec 12, 2009Anthony MotleyGladiator ChallengeW0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Jun 20, 2026Vinicius OliveiraUFC Fight NightL00230000.0000100%
Mar 14, 2026Jose Miguel DelgadoUFC Fight NightL00000010.00046067%
Aug 9, 2025Christian RodriguezUFC Fight NightW11120000.00035060%
Feb 22, 2025Melquizael CostaUFC Fight NightL00000000.000110100%
Jun 29, 2024Cub SwansonUFC 303W10115100000.000211018%
Feb 10, 2024Dan IgeUFC Fight NightL00000000.0000000%
Dec 16, 2023Lucas AlmeidaUFC 296W00000000.0000000%
Jul 22, 2023Nathaniel WoodUFC Fight NightL00350010.0000200%
Sep 17, 2022Bill AlgeoUFC Fight NightW00010000.00013033%
Apr 30, 2022Joanderson BritoUFC Fight NightL00000000.0000000%
Jun 26, 2021Daniel PinedaUFC Fight NightD11110000.000110100%
Oct 31, 2020Bryce MitchellUFC Fight NightL00000020.0000000%
Jun 13, 2020Charles JourdainUFC Fight NightW00010000.00056083%
Jan 18, 2020Sodiq YusuffUFC 246L34000000.14337143%
Jul 13, 2019Sheymon MoraesUFC Fight NightW00000000.0000000%
Feb 17, 2019Myles JuryUFC Fight NightW00000000.0000000%
Aug 25, 2018Michael JohnsonUFC Fight NightL00120000.00024050%
Jan 27, 2018Dennis BermudezUFC Fight NightW34150000.000412033%
Oct 21, 2017Artem LobovUFC Fight NightW00020000.00056083%
Jul 29, 2017Calvin KattarUFC 214L00390000.0000200%
Oct 1, 2016Hacran DiasUFC Fight NightW01130010.50012150%
Apr 23, 2016Yair RodriguezUFC 197L00000000.00012050%
Nov 21, 2015Gabriel BenitezUFC Fight NightW11000000.000110100%
Mar 21, 2015Godofredo PepeyUFC Fight NightL12000000.0000000%
Oct 25, 2014Felipe ArantesUFC 179W811440020.00058062%
Apr 26, 2014Max HollowayUFC 172L35041100.000312025%
Oct 19, 2013Jeremy LarsenUFC 166W008110000.000110100%
May 3, 2013Adrian DiazWFC 5W00000000.0000000%
Nov 15, 2012Enoch WilsonTPF 15W------------
Sep 7, 2012Ricky WallaceTPF 14W00000000.0000000%
Jun 9, 2012Jesse BowenWFCW00000000.0000000%
Apr 21, 2012Matt MuramotoKOTCW00000000.0000000%
Mar 3, 2012Alexander CrispimCCFCW00000000.0000000%
Jan 7, 2012Vaymond DennisWFCW00000000.0000000%
Oct 8, 2011Tony RiosCapitol Fighting ChampionshipsW00000000.0000000%
Oct 2, 2010Derrick BurnsedRebel FighterL00000000.0000000%
Aug 21, 2010Tony RevelesRebel FighterW------------
May 1, 2010Justin SmitleyGladiator ChallengeW00000000.0000000%
Mar 6, 2010Cain CamposGladiator ChallengeW00000000.0000000%
Dec 12, 2009Anthony MotleyGladiator ChallengeW00000000.0000000%

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Jun 20, 2026Vinicius OliveiraUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Mar 14, 2026Jose Miguel DelgadoUFC Fight NightL001200000000
Aug 9, 2025Christian RodriguezUFC Fight NightW000000000000
Feb 22, 2025Melquizael CostaUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Jun 29, 2024Cub SwansonUFC 303W000000000000
Feb 10, 2024Dan IgeUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Dec 16, 2023Lucas AlmeidaUFC 296W00121500000000
Jul 22, 2023Nathaniel WoodUFC Fight NightL002200000000
Sep 17, 2022Bill AlgeoUFC Fight NightW000000000002
Apr 30, 2022Joanderson BritoUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Jun 26, 2021Daniel PinedaUFC Fight NightD004600000000
Oct 31, 2020Bryce MitchellUFC Fight NightL002322101000
Jun 13, 2020Charles JourdainUFC Fight NightW002500502030
Jan 18, 2020Sodiq YusuffUFC 246L000100000000
Jul 13, 2019Sheymon MoraesUFC Fight NightW004500000000
Feb 17, 2019Myles JuryUFC Fight NightW000000000000
Aug 25, 2018Michael JohnsonUFC Fight NightL000000110001
Jan 27, 2018Dennis BermudezUFC Fight NightW000000101000
Oct 21, 2017Artem LobovUFC Fight NightW005811303000
Jul 29, 2017Calvin KattarUFC 214L000000000000
Oct 1, 2016Hacran DiasUFC Fight NightW00143067301020
Apr 23, 2016Yair RodriguezUFC 197L110211000000
Nov 21, 2015Gabriel BenitezUFC Fight NightW000000000000
Mar 21, 2015Godofredo PepeyUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Oct 25, 2014Felipe ArantesUFC 179W4592800401031
Apr 26, 2014Max HollowayUFC 172L000000000000
Oct 19, 2013Jeremy LarsenUFC 166W1181000000000
May 3, 2013Adrian DiazWFC 5W000000000000
Nov 15, 2012Enoch WilsonTPF 15W------------
Sep 7, 2012Ricky WallaceTPF 14W000000000000
Jun 9, 2012Jesse BowenWFCW000000000000
Apr 21, 2012Matt MuramotoKOTCW000000000000
Mar 3, 2012Alexander CrispimCCFCW000000000000
Jan 7, 2012Vaymond DennisWFCW000000000000
Oct 8, 2011Tony RiosCapitol Fighting ChampionshipsW000000000000
Oct 2, 2010Derrick BurnsedRebel FighterL000000000000
Aug 21, 2010Tony RevelesRebel FighterW------------
May 1, 2010Justin SmitleyGladiator ChallengeW000000000000
Mar 6, 2010Cain CamposGladiator ChallengeW000000000000
Dec 12, 2009Anthony MotleyGladiator ChallengeW000000000000

Kai Kamaka III

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Jul 11, 2026Luke RileyUFC 329L4/59/2310/132341234156.10%080%39%77%
Apr 4, 2026Dakota HopeUFC Fight NightW34/3735/8014/1414419910515972.36%092%47%100%
Jan 22, 2026Michel LimaTuff-N-Uff 151W------------
Oct 25, 2025Diego BrandaoTuff-N-Uff 149L------------
Jun 29, 2025Sitik MuduevTuff-N-Uff 145W------------
Apr 25, 2025Joshua WeemsTuff-N-Uff 143W------------
Aug 23, 2024Brendan Loughnane2024 PFL PlayoffsL------------
Jun 28, 2024Pedro Carvalho2024 PFL Regular SeasonW------------
Apr 19, 2024Bubba Jenkins2024 PFL Regular SeasonW------------
Oct 7, 2023Henry CorralesBellator 300W------------
Apr 22, 2023Adli EdwardsBellator 295W------------
Dec 9, 2022Kevin BoehmBellator 289W------------
Apr 23, 2022Justin GonzalesBellator 279L------------
Dec 3, 2021John de JesusBellator 272W------------
Jul 31, 2021Danny ChavezUFC Fight NightD9/129/2724/2980114487770.18%075%32%83%
May 1, 2021TJ BrownUFC Fight NightL11/1431/909/11851556112854.84%182%38%82%
Nov 28, 2020Jonathan PearceUFC Fight NightL18/2319/497/74884478357.14%080%39%100%
Aug 15, 2020Tony KelleyUFC 252W43/5046/1091/113821611418563.89%090%43%100%
Jul 31, 2020Michael StackLFA 87W------------
Dec 21, 2019Spencer HigaBellator 236W------------
Dec 15, 2018Shojin MikiBellator 213W------------
Jun 10, 2018Mauricio DiazKOTCW------------
Feb 24, 2018Rick JamesKOTCW------------
Mar 25, 2017Jeff MesaPXC 56L------------
Jun 14, 2015Andrew NatividadKOTCL------------
Aug 2, 2014Nui WheelerDestiny MMAW------------
Oct 20, 2012Anthony ReyesKOTCW------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Jul 11, 2026Luke RileyUFC 329L00000000.0000000%
Apr 4, 2026Dakota HopeUFC Fight NightW13149140000.0000100%
Jan 22, 2026Michel LimaTuff-N-Uff 151W------------
Oct 25, 2025Diego BrandaoTuff-N-Uff 149L------------
Jun 29, 2025Sitik MuduevTuff-N-Uff 145W------------
Apr 25, 2025Joshua WeemsTuff-N-Uff 143W------------
Aug 23, 2024Brendan Loughnane2024 PFL PlayoffsL------------
Jun 28, 2024Pedro Carvalho2024 PFL Regular SeasonW------------
Apr 19, 2024Bubba Jenkins2024 PFL Regular SeasonW------------
Oct 7, 2023Henry CorralesBellator 300W------------
Apr 22, 2023Adli EdwardsBellator 295W------------
Dec 9, 2022Kevin BoehmBellator 289W------------
Apr 23, 2022Justin GonzalesBellator 279L------------
Dec 3, 2021John de JesusBellator 272W------------
Jul 31, 2021Danny ChavezUFC Fight NightD68010000.0000300%
May 1, 2021TJ BrownUFC Fight NightL00110000.000110100%
Nov 28, 2020Jonathan PearceUFC Fight NightL22010010.00013033%
Aug 15, 2020Tony KelleyUFC 252W1919330000.000550100%
Jul 31, 2020Michael StackLFA 87W------------
Dec 21, 2019Spencer HigaBellator 236W------------
Dec 15, 2018Shojin MikiBellator 213W------------
Jun 10, 2018Mauricio DiazKOTCW------------
Feb 24, 2018Rick JamesKOTCW------------
Mar 25, 2017Jeff MesaPXC 56L------------
Jun 14, 2015Andrew NatividadKOTCL------------
Aug 2, 2014Nui WheelerDestiny MMAW------------
Oct 20, 2012Anthony ReyesKOTCW------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Jul 11, 2026Luke RileyUFC 329L000000000000
Apr 4, 2026Dakota HopeUFC Fight NightW000000000000
Jan 22, 2026Michel LimaTuff-N-Uff 151W------------
Oct 25, 2025Diego BrandaoTuff-N-Uff 149L------------
Jun 29, 2025Sitik MuduevTuff-N-Uff 145W------------
Apr 25, 2025Joshua WeemsTuff-N-Uff 143W------------
Aug 23, 2024Brendan Loughnane2024 PFL PlayoffsL------------
Jun 28, 2024Pedro Carvalho2024 PFL Regular SeasonW------------
Apr 19, 2024Bubba Jenkins2024 PFL Regular SeasonW------------
Oct 7, 2023Henry CorralesBellator 300W------------
Apr 22, 2023Adli EdwardsBellator 295W------------
Dec 9, 2022Kevin BoehmBellator 289W------------
Apr 23, 2022Justin GonzalesBellator 279L------------
Dec 3, 2021John de JesusBellator 272W------------
Jul 31, 2021Danny ChavezUFC Fight NightD000000000000
May 1, 2021TJ BrownUFC Fight NightL336900000000
Nov 28, 2020Jonathan PearceUFC Fight NightL001100000001
Aug 15, 2020Tony KelleyUFC 252W220100101000
Jul 31, 2020Michael StackLFA 87W------------
Dec 21, 2019Spencer HigaBellator 236W------------
Dec 15, 2018Shojin MikiBellator 213W------------
Jun 10, 2018Mauricio DiazKOTCW------------
Feb 24, 2018Rick JamesKOTCW------------
Mar 25, 2017Jeff MesaPXC 56L------------
Jun 14, 2015Andrew NatividadKOTCL------------
Aug 2, 2014Nui WheelerDestiny MMAW------------
Oct 20, 2012Anthony ReyesKOTCW------------
How the 100-sim board works
Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert

Simcage Pro · n=100

PASS

69%

Walker

31%

Meerschaert

PASS. The 69 depends on the takedown line UFC.com's own count contradicts. Not a public play line. DEC 2 is the printed 0% decision-share limit, not a claim the fight cannot go the distance.

54%

KO/TKO

44%

SUB

2%

DEC

Finish-round histogram

56R1
27R2
15R3
2DEC

Goes the distance 2%

Pace SLpM 6.67, SApM 7.62, TD avg/15 5.77. Model output, not an official result. No betting line. Walker 7-3-0 US. ufcstats SLpM 3.72 acc 53% SApM 4.18 def 42% TD 4.07/38% TDdef 100% sub 0.0. UFC.com takedown count is 1 landed of 26 attempted. That disagrees with 38% and with 4.07 per 15. Last 4: Yakhyaev L KO R1 0:08; Jacoby L strikes R2 1:42; Cerqueira W UD R3; Menifield L split R3. Printed decision-win share is 0% but the Cerqueira history sentence is a decision win. Do not treat 0% as never won a decision. Meerschaert 37-22-0 US. SLpM 2.95 acc 45% SApM 3.44 def 53% TD 1.70/29% TDdef 40% sub 1.5. Last 5 all losses: Malkoun L UD R3; Daukaus L D'Arce R1 0:50; Oleksiejczuk L strikes R1 3:03; Tavares L UD R3; de Ridder L arm-triangle R3 1:44. ufcstats-line sim only: Walker 69, Meerschaert 31. Not a play. KO/TKO 54, SUB 44, DEC 2. Hist R1 56 R2 27 R3 15 DEC 2. DEC 2 is the printed 0% decision-share limit.

ESPN striking, clinch, ground

Julius Walker

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Jun 27, 2026Abdul-Rakhman YakhyaevUFC Fight NightL0/00/10/001010.00%00%0%0%
Feb 7, 2026Dustin JacobyUFC Fight NightL0/01/93/3122672146.15%0100%18%100%
Aug 9, 2025Raffael CerqueiraUFC Fight NightW2/27/159/996120446280.00%190%60%100%
Feb 22, 2025Alonzo MenifieldUFC Fight NightL10/1928/9213/131142008617157.00%077%33%100%
Dec 7, 2024Myron DennisPeak Fighting 41W------------
Nov 16, 2024Bevon LewisSynergy FC 16W------------
Jun 1, 2024Nyle BartlingSynergy FC 13W------------
Mar 23, 2024Mike CookSynergy FC 12W------------
Oct 14, 2023Bryan PorrittSynergy FC 8W------------
Apr 22, 2023Henry EssleySynergy FC 6W------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Jun 27, 2026Abdul-Rakhman YakhyaevUFC Fight NightL00000000.0000000%
Feb 7, 2026Dustin JacobyUFC Fight NightL11160000.00037043%
Aug 9, 2025Raffael CerqueiraUFC Fight NightW23260000.000610060%
Feb 22, 2025Alonzo MenifieldUFC Fight NightL23249203300.00019011%
Dec 7, 2024Myron DennisPeak Fighting 41W------------
Nov 16, 2024Bevon LewisSynergy FC 16W------------
Jun 1, 2024Nyle BartlingSynergy FC 13W------------
Mar 23, 2024Mike CookSynergy FC 12W------------
Oct 14, 2023Bryan PorrittSynergy FC 8W------------
Apr 22, 2023Henry EssleySynergy FC 6W------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Jun 27, 2026Abdul-Rakhman YakhyaevUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Feb 7, 2026Dustin JacobyUFC Fight NightL001200000000
Aug 9, 2025Raffael CerqueiraUFC Fight NightW55172200000000
Feb 22, 2025Alonzo MenifieldUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Dec 7, 2024Myron DennisPeak Fighting 41W------------
Nov 16, 2024Bevon LewisSynergy FC 16W------------
Jun 1, 2024Nyle BartlingSynergy FC 13W------------
Mar 23, 2024Mike CookSynergy FC 12W------------
Oct 14, 2023Bryan PorrittSynergy FC 8W------------
Apr 22, 2023Henry EssleySynergy FC 6W------------

Gerald Meerschaert

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
May 2, 2026Jacob MalkounUFC Fight NightL6/722/643/353100327653.00%086%35%100%
Nov 15, 2025Kyle DaukausUFC 322L0/00/20/002020.00%00%0%0%
Aug 16, 2025Michal OleksiejczukUFC 319L0/02/141/231631618.75%00%14%50%
Apr 5, 2025Brad TavaresUFC Fight NightL6/926/634/75197388352.58%070%41%57%
Nov 9, 2024Reinier de RidderUFC Fight NightL3/519/390/04472305461.11%060%55%0%
Aug 24, 2024Edmen ShahbazyanUFC Fight NightW6/710/314/43154214457.41%086%33%100%
Mar 16, 2024Bryan BarberenaUFC Fight NightW2/37/122/23036111783.33%067%58%100%
Aug 19, 2023Andre PetroskiUFC 292L3/652/1205/5921667614955.42%067%48%100%
Apr 8, 2023Joe PyferUFC 287L2/21/127/71021102147.62%0100%8%100%
Aug 13, 2022Bruno SilvaUFC Fight NightW9/1218/739/10611364611444.85%175%30%90%
Apr 30, 2022Krzysztof JotkoUFC Fight NightL2/214/6612/1246101379145.54%089%24%100%
Dec 18, 2021Dustin StoltzfusUFC Fight NightW2/28/190/01930112263.33%0100%42%0%
Aug 28, 2021Makhmud MuradovUFC Fight NightW3/423/456/63965325660.00%060%51%100%
Apr 17, 2021Bartosz FabinskiUFC Fight NightW0/05/70/0121481085.71%0100%78%0%
Sep 19, 2020Khamzat ChimaevUFC Fight NightL0/00/10/001010.00%00%0%0%
Jun 6, 2020Ian HeinischUFC 250L2/21/80/031031030.00%0100%12%0%
Mar 7, 2020Deron WinnUFC 248W20/2161/1560/0861888618745.74%195%40%100%
Oct 12, 2019Eryk AndersUFC Fight NightL13/1455/1843/3722027220235.64%093%30%100%
Aug 3, 2019Trevin GilesUFC Fight NightW2/21/101/1315561956.36%0100%19%100%
Mar 30, 2019Kevin HollandUFC Fight NightL0/01/13/34456101378.57%075%67%100%
Dec 15, 2018Jack HermanssonUFC Fight NightL0/00/10/0121250.00%0100%0%0%
Jul 6, 2018Oskar PiechotaThe Ultimate Fighter 27 FinaleW1/26/392/2981595110461.64%086%45%100%
Dec 1, 2017Eric SpicelyThe Ultimate Fighter 26 FinaleW6/827/740/04595368547.37%175%39%0%
Jul 8, 2017Thiago SantosUFC 213L0/27/170/01529152951.72%040%54%0%
Feb 19, 2017Ryan JanesUFC Fight NightW0/02/51/1593655.56%00%40%100%
Dec 9, 2016Joe GigliottiUFC Fight NightW0/08/240/01839143446.15%0100%39%0%
Oct 28, 2016Chase WaldonRFA 45W0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Aug 13, 2016Sidney WheelerValor Fights 36W------------
Jul 18, 2015Lucas RotaTitan FC 34W0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Jun 27, 2015Keith Smetana4BCW0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Sep 27, 2014Matt LagouKOTCW------------
May 31, 2014Sam AlveyNAFCL------------
Jan 31, 2014Eddie LarreaNAFCW------------
Sep 13, 2013Nathan GunnCFCW------------
Jul 19, 2013George LockhartNFC 58W------------
Apr 20, 2013Jay EllisKOTCW0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Jan 19, 2013Anthony LapsleyRocktagon MMAL0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Oct 19, 2012Sergej JuskevicSFS 6L0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Sep 6, 2012Eddie LarreaRWCW0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Apr 22, 2011Herbert GoodmanCombat USAL0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Jan 6, 2011Dallas O'MalleyCombat USA 24W0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Sep 11, 2010Sam AlveyCombat USAW0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Jul 10, 2010Ron FairclothMadtown ThrowdownW0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Apr 17, 2010Jim KlimczykCombat USA 19W0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Mar 20, 2010Eddie LarreaECO 4W0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Nov 28, 2009Morrison LambRacine Fight Night 5W0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Aug 15, 2009Jacob KuesterGCFW0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
May 2, 2009Kenny RobertsonMT 19L0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Oct 10, 2008Curtis BaileyMT 17L0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Jul 25, 2008Mike VaughnMT 16W0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
May 3, 2008Ryan ScheeperFCC 35W0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Mar 29, 2008Alex CarterFCC 34W0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Feb 23, 2008Caleb KrullFCC 33W0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Jan 12, 2008Kenneth AllenFCC 32W------------
Aug 11, 2007Daisuke HanazawaFCC 29L0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
May 19, 2007Will PaceFCC 28W0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
May 12, 2007Shane KruchtenFCC 27W0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Mar 10, 2007Jay EllisFCC 26L------------
Jan 13, 2007Fernando GomezFCC 25W------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
May 2, 2026Jacob MalkounUFC Fight NightL00010020.0000300%
Nov 15, 2025Kyle DaukausUFC 322L00000000.0000000%
Aug 16, 2025Michal OleksiejczukUFC 319L00000000.0000300%
Apr 5, 2025Brad TavaresUFC Fight NightL11130000.0000800%
Nov 9, 2024Reinier de RidderUFC Fight NightL00230010.0000200%
Aug 24, 2024Edmen ShahbazyanUFC Fight NightW00120000.00016017%
Mar 16, 2024Bryan BarberenaUFC Fight NightW00000000.00037043%
Aug 19, 2023Andre PetroskiUFC 292L33770000.00013033%
Apr 8, 2023Joe PyferUFC 287L00000000.0000000%
Aug 13, 2022Bruno SilvaUFC Fight NightW00000000.00016017%
Apr 30, 2022Krzysztof JotkoUFC Fight NightL67340000.00014025%
Dec 18, 2021Dustin StoltzfusUFC Fight NightW11000000.000110100%
Aug 28, 2021Makhmud MuradovUFC Fight NightW01000000.000310030%
Apr 17, 2021Bartosz FabinskiUFC Fight NightW11220010.0000000%
Sep 19, 2020Khamzat ChimaevUFC Fight NightL00000000.0000000%
Jun 6, 2020Ian HeinischUFC 250L00000000.0000000%
Mar 7, 2020Deron WinnUFC 248W005100000.000110100%
Oct 12, 2019Eryk AndersUFC Fight NightL00110000.0000100%
Aug 3, 2019Trevin GilesUFC Fight NightW00000020.00013033%
Mar 30, 2019Kevin HollandUFC Fight NightL34130020.000611055%
Dec 15, 2018Jack HermanssonUFC Fight NightL11000010.0000200%
Jul 6, 2018Oskar PiechotaThe Ultimate Fighter 27 FinaleW2218260010.00034075%
Dec 1, 2017Eric SpicelyThe Ultimate Fighter 26 FinaleW00110010.0000000%
Jul 8, 2017Thiago SantosUFC 213L23230000.00038038%
Feb 19, 2017Ryan JanesUFC Fight NightW00000000.0000000%
Dec 9, 2016Joe GigliottiUFC Fight NightW00370000.0000200%
Oct 28, 2016Chase WaldonRFA 45W00000000.0000000%
Aug 13, 2016Sidney WheelerValor Fights 36W------------
Jul 18, 2015Lucas RotaTitan FC 34W00000000.0000000%
Jun 27, 2015Keith Smetana4BCW00000000.0000000%
Sep 27, 2014Matt LagouKOTCW------------
May 31, 2014Sam AlveyNAFCL------------
Jan 31, 2014Eddie LarreaNAFCW------------
Sep 13, 2013Nathan GunnCFCW------------
Jul 19, 2013George LockhartNFC 58W------------
Apr 20, 2013Jay EllisKOTCW00000000.0000000%
Jan 19, 2013Anthony LapsleyRocktagon MMAL00000000.0000000%
Oct 19, 2012Sergej JuskevicSFS 6L00000000.0000000%
Sep 6, 2012Eddie LarreaRWCW00000000.0000000%
Apr 22, 2011Herbert GoodmanCombat USAL00000000.0000000%
Jan 6, 2011Dallas O'MalleyCombat USA 24W00000000.0000000%
Sep 11, 2010Sam AlveyCombat USAW00000000.0000000%
Jul 10, 2010Ron FairclothMadtown ThrowdownW00000000.0000000%
Apr 17, 2010Jim KlimczykCombat USA 19W00000000.0000000%
Mar 20, 2010Eddie LarreaECO 4W00000000.0000000%
Nov 28, 2009Morrison LambRacine Fight Night 5W00000000.0000000%
Aug 15, 2009Jacob KuesterGCFW00000000.0000000%
May 2, 2009Kenny RobertsonMT 19L00000000.0000000%
Oct 10, 2008Curtis BaileyMT 17L00000000.0000000%
Jul 25, 2008Mike VaughnMT 16W00000000.0000000%
May 3, 2008Ryan ScheeperFCC 35W00000000.0000000%
Mar 29, 2008Alex CarterFCC 34W00000000.0000000%
Feb 23, 2008Caleb KrullFCC 33W00000000.0000000%
Jan 12, 2008Kenneth AllenFCC 32W------------
Aug 11, 2007Daisuke HanazawaFCC 29L00000000.0000000%
May 19, 2007Will PaceFCC 28W00000000.0000000%
May 12, 2007Shane KruchtenFCC 27W00000000.0000000%
Mar 10, 2007Jay EllisFCC 26L------------
Jan 13, 2007Fernando GomezFCC 25W------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
May 2, 2026Jacob MalkounUFC Fight NightL001100000003
Nov 15, 2025Kyle DaukausUFC 322L000000000000
Aug 16, 2025Michal OleksiejczukUFC 319L000000000000
Apr 5, 2025Brad TavaresUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Nov 9, 2024Reinier de RidderUFC Fight NightL006700000000
Aug 24, 2024Edmen ShahbazyanUFC Fight NightW000000000001
Mar 16, 2024Bryan BarberenaUFC Fight NightW000000000002
Aug 19, 2023Andre PetroskiUFC 292L006800000000
Apr 8, 2023Joe PyferUFC 287L000000000000
Aug 13, 2022Bruno SilvaUFC Fight NightW00101900000001
Apr 30, 2022Krzysztof JotkoUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Dec 18, 2021Dustin StoltzfusUFC Fight NightW000000000003
Aug 28, 2021Makhmud MuradovUFC Fight NightW000000000001
Apr 17, 2021Bartosz FabinskiUFC Fight NightW000000000001
Sep 19, 2020Khamzat ChimaevUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Jun 6, 2020Ian HeinischUFC 250L000000000000
Mar 7, 2020Deron WinnUFC 248W000000110001
Oct 12, 2019Eryk AndersUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Aug 3, 2019Trevin GilesUFC Fight NightW002600201101
Mar 30, 2019Kevin HollandUFC Fight NightL002200934114
Dec 15, 2018Jack HermanssonUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Jul 6, 2018Oskar PiechotaThe Ultimate Fighter 27 FinaleW33193000310022
Dec 1, 2017Eric SpicelyThe Ultimate Fighter 26 FinaleW002200000000
Jul 8, 2017Thiago SantosUFC 213L004400101000
Feb 19, 2017Ryan JanesUFC Fight NightW000000000001
Dec 9, 2016Joe GigliottiUFC Fight NightW112200110001
Oct 28, 2016Chase WaldonRFA 45W000000000000
Aug 13, 2016Sidney WheelerValor Fights 36W------------
Jul 18, 2015Lucas RotaTitan FC 34W000000000000
Jun 27, 2015Keith Smetana4BCW000000000000
Sep 27, 2014Matt LagouKOTCW------------
May 31, 2014Sam AlveyNAFCL------------
Jan 31, 2014Eddie LarreaNAFCW------------
Sep 13, 2013Nathan GunnCFCW------------
Jul 19, 2013George LockhartNFC 58W------------
Apr 20, 2013Jay EllisKOTCW000000000000
Jan 19, 2013Anthony LapsleyRocktagon MMAL000000000000
Oct 19, 2012Sergej JuskevicSFS 6L000000000000
Sep 6, 2012Eddie LarreaRWCW000000000000
Apr 22, 2011Herbert GoodmanCombat USAL000000000000
Jan 6, 2011Dallas O'MalleyCombat USA 24W000000000000
Sep 11, 2010Sam AlveyCombat USAW000000000000
Jul 10, 2010Ron FairclothMadtown ThrowdownW000000000000
Apr 17, 2010Jim KlimczykCombat USA 19W000000000000
Mar 20, 2010Eddie LarreaECO 4W000000000000
Nov 28, 2009Morrison LambRacine Fight Night 5W000000000000
Aug 15, 2009Jacob KuesterGCFW000000000000
May 2, 2009Kenny RobertsonMT 19L000000000000
Oct 10, 2008Curtis BaileyMT 17L000000000000
Jul 25, 2008Mike VaughnMT 16W000000000000
May 3, 2008Ryan ScheeperFCC 35W000000000000
Mar 29, 2008Alex CarterFCC 34W000000000000
Feb 23, 2008Caleb KrullFCC 33W000000000000
Jan 12, 2008Kenneth AllenFCC 32W------------
Aug 11, 2007Daisuke HanazawaFCC 29L000000000000
May 19, 2007Will PaceFCC 28W000000000000
May 12, 2007Shane KruchtenFCC 27W000000000000
Mar 10, 2007Jay EllisFCC 26L------------
Jan 13, 2007Fernando GomezFCC 25W------------
How the 100-sim board works
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi

Simcage Pro · n=100

PASS

49%

Wellmaker

51%

Tanzilovi

PASS.

70%

KO/TKO

3%

SUB

27%

DEC

Finish-round histogram

38R1
21R2
14R3
27DEC

Goes the distance 27%

Pace SLpM 8.78, SApM 8.43, TD avg/15 4.50. Model output, not an official result. No betting line. Wellmaker 10-2-0 US. SLpM 4.58 acc 55% SApM 4.23 def 52% TD 0.00 TDdef 46% sub 0.0. KD avg 1.44. Last 5: Diaz L RNC R2 4:08; Ewing L UD R3; Moutinho W KO R1 2:37; Saaiman W KO R1 1:59; Bramhald W KO R1 2:29. Tanzilovi 10-2-0 GE. SLpM 4.20 acc 68% SApM 4.20 def 49% TD 4.50/36% TDdef 85% sub 0.0. Last 2, both losses: Collins L UD R3; Musasa L split R3. n=100: Wellmaker 49, Tanzilovi 51. KO/TKO 70, SUB 3, DEC 27. Hist R1 38 R2 21 R3 14.

ESPN striking, clinch, ground

Malcolm Wellmaker

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
May 16, 2026Juan DiazUFC Fight NightL8/173/113/41534153344.12%050%27%75%
Nov 15, 2025Ethyn EwingUFC 322L19/2727/757/14821517714654.30%078%40%50%
Jun 14, 2025Kris MoutinhoUFC Fight NightW7/810/225/62539253964.10%190%48%83%
Apr 26, 2025Cameron SaaimanUFC Fight NightW4/41/51/261261250.00%1100%17%50%
Aug 27, 2024Adam BramhaldDana White's Contender SeriesW5/712/203/32030203066.67%171%60%100%
Jan 20, 2024Chase BoutwellNational Fighting Championship 161W------------
Oct 14, 2023Taylor MooreConflict MMA 59W------------
Jun 24, 2023Justin HughesConflict MMA 58W------------
May 5, 2023Zakariya CamaraB2 Fighting Series 181W------------
Oct 14, 2022Christopher WingateiKON FC 5W------------
Aug 5, 2022Langston SykesiKON FC 4W------------
Jun 18, 2022Austin CarterConflict MMA 52W------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
May 16, 2026Juan DiazUFC Fight NightL11000000.0000000%
Nov 15, 2025Ethyn EwingUFC 322L16188120000.0000300%
Jun 14, 2025Kris MoutinhoUFC Fight NightW22110000.0000000%
Apr 26, 2025Cameron SaaimanUFC Fight NightW00000000.0000000%
Aug 27, 2024Adam BramhaldDana White's Contender SeriesW00000000.0000100%
Jan 20, 2024Chase BoutwellNational Fighting Championship 161W------------
Oct 14, 2023Taylor MooreConflict MMA 59W------------
Jun 24, 2023Justin HughesConflict MMA 58W------------
May 5, 2023Zakariya CamaraB2 Fighting Series 181W------------
Oct 14, 2022Christopher WingateiKON FC 5W------------
Aug 5, 2022Langston SykesiKON FC 4W------------
Jun 18, 2022Austin CarterConflict MMA 52W------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
May 16, 2026Juan DiazUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Nov 15, 2025Ethyn EwingUFC 322L000000000000
Jun 14, 2025Kris MoutinhoUFC Fight NightW000000000000
Apr 26, 2025Cameron SaaimanUFC Fight NightW000100000000
Aug 27, 2024Adam BramhaldDana White's Contender SeriesW000000000000
Jan 20, 2024Chase BoutwellNational Fighting Championship 161W------------
Oct 14, 2023Taylor MooreConflict MMA 59W------------
Jun 24, 2023Justin HughesConflict MMA 58W------------
May 5, 2023Zakariya CamaraB2 Fighting Series 181W------------
Oct 14, 2022Christopher WingateiKON FC 5W------------
Aug 5, 2022Langston SykesiKON FC 4W------------
Jun 18, 2022Austin CarterConflict MMA 52W------------

Otari Tanzilovi

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Jun 20, 2026Shane CollinsUFC Fight NightL1/235/625/674105588970.48%088%58%83%
Feb 7, 2025Guillermo TorresFury Fighting Championship 101W------------
Sep 10, 2024Josias MusasaDana White's Contender SeriesL8/829/502/285114689474.56%091%61%100%
Jan 21, 2023Khikmatillo AbdullaevOctagon 39W------------
Sep 17, 2022Eduardo Dinis do NascimentoUAE Warriors 33W------------
Jun 11, 2022Mohammad DalvandGeorgian Fighting Championship 16W------------
Feb 16, 2022Rafael Ribeiro SoaresGFC 15W------------
Jun 10, 2021Vefxo ChincharauliGFCW------------
Feb 13, 2021Adem VashaymadzeWFCF 9W------------
Nov 30, 2019Ali Mohammad RezaWFCFW------------
Nov 3, 2018Mehrad MahmoudiGFC 4W------------
Oct 2, 2018Giorgi LipartelianiGFC 3W------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Jun 20, 2026Shane CollinsUFC Fight NightL1415340000.00059056%
Feb 7, 2025Guillermo TorresFury Fighting Championship 101W------------
Sep 10, 2024Josias MusasaDana White's Contender SeriesL2225790000.000416025%
Jan 21, 2023Khikmatillo AbdullaevOctagon 39W------------
Sep 17, 2022Eduardo Dinis do NascimentoUAE Warriors 33W------------
Jun 11, 2022Mohammad DalvandGeorgian Fighting Championship 16W------------
Feb 16, 2022Rafael Ribeiro SoaresGFC 15W------------
Jun 10, 2021Vefxo ChincharauliGFCW------------
Feb 13, 2021Adem VashaymadzeWFCF 9W------------
Nov 30, 2019Ali Mohammad RezaWFCFW------------
Nov 3, 2018Mehrad MahmoudiGFC 4W------------
Oct 2, 2018Giorgi LipartelianiGFC 3W------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Jun 20, 2026Shane CollinsUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Feb 7, 2025Guillermo TorresFury Fighting Championship 101W------------
Sep 10, 2024Josias MusasaDana White's Contender SeriesL000000000000
Jan 21, 2023Khikmatillo AbdullaevOctagon 39W------------
Sep 17, 2022Eduardo Dinis do NascimentoUAE Warriors 33W------------
Jun 11, 2022Mohammad DalvandGeorgian Fighting Championship 16W------------
Feb 16, 2022Rafael Ribeiro SoaresGFC 15W------------
Jun 10, 2021Vefxo ChincharauliGFCW------------
Feb 13, 2021Adem VashaymadzeWFCF 9W------------
Nov 30, 2019Ali Mohammad RezaWFCFW------------
Nov 3, 2018Mehrad MahmoudiGFC 4W------------
Oct 2, 2018Giorgi LipartelianiGFC 3W------------
How the 100-sim board works
Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim

Simcage Pro · n=100

PLAY

21%

Prado

79%

Bonfim

Best plays · PLAY Bonfim. Striking margin better by 1.77 and str def better by 8 points. Form did not make this call. His last three history sentences are losses.

50%

KO/TKO

27%

SUB

23%

DEC

Finish-round histogram

29R1
34R2
14R3
23DEC

Goes the distance 23%

Pace SLpM 8.78, SApM 8.27, TD avg/15 1.98. Model output, not an official result. No betting line. Prado 12-5-0 AR. SLpM 3.68 acc 43% SApM 4.31 def 54% TD 0.76/19% TDdef 40% sub 0.8. Printed decision share of wins is 0%. Last 5: Radtke L UD R3; Veretennikov L split R3; Matthews L UD R3; Zellhuber L UD R3; Azaitar W strikes R1 4:05. Listed 1-4. Bonfim 20-7-0 BR. SLpM 5.10 acc 54% SApM 3.96 def 62% TD 1.22/33% TDdef 76% sub 0.0. UFC.com str def prints 63. Last 5 history, not the win tag: Sola L D'Arce R1 4:44; Padilla L strikes R2 4:30; Sadykhov L doctor stoppage R1 5:00; Pichel W UD R3; Saint Denis L face crank R1 4:48. Listed 1-4. n=100: Prado 21, Bonfim 79. KO/TKO 50, SUB 27, DEC 23. Hist R1 29 R2 34 R3 14.

ESPN striking, clinch, ground

Francisco Prado

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Apr 11, 2026Charles RadtkeUFC 327L6/97/284/84179296651.90%075%35%50%
Jul 19, 2025Nikolay VeretennikovUFC 318L3/923/458/86494477768.09%046%59%100%
Feb 8, 2025Jake MatthewsUFC 312L13/2212/8522/25641525914642.11%068%18%88%
Feb 24, 2024Daniel ZellhuberUFC Fight NightL25/4629/15434/44912499024636.55%055%19%77%
Jul 15, 2023Ottman AzaitarUFC Fight NightW2/610/195/54261385768.85%133%67%100%
Feb 11, 2023Jamie MullarkeyUFC 284L4/1018/586/73178287539.74%040%31%86%
Dec 16, 2022Jose Barrios VargasSamurai Fight House 8W------------
Oct 15, 2022Adrian PerroneSamurai Fight House 6W------------
Jun 19, 2022Mauricio Ariel PareSamurai Fight House 5W------------
Feb 12, 2022Diego BasualdoSamurai Fight House 3W------------
Nov 6, 2021Gabriel RibeiroSamurai Fight House 2W------------
Aug 21, 2021Lucas TavaresSamurai Fight House 1W------------
Jun 4, 2021Hugo NogueiraNFCW------------
Apr 24, 2021Octavio JobetCAM 2W------------
Dec 7, 2019Fernando SilveiraParana StrikeW------------
Oct 12, 2019Rodrigo GigenaFighting Champions 1W------------
Jul 6, 2019Ayrton PuyPower FightW------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Apr 11, 2026Charles RadtkeUFC 327L00130020.0000000%
Jul 19, 2025Nikolay VeretennikovUFC 318L22330000.000310030%
Feb 8, 2025Jake MatthewsUFC 312L66461100.00016017%
Feb 24, 2024Daniel ZellhuberUFC Fight NightL11110000.0000000%
Jul 15, 2023Ottman AzaitarUFC Fight NightW00110000.0000300%
Feb 11, 2023Jamie MullarkeyUFC 284L00000010.0000200%
Dec 16, 2022Jose Barrios VargasSamurai Fight House 8W------------
Oct 15, 2022Adrian PerroneSamurai Fight House 6W------------
Jun 19, 2022Mauricio Ariel PareSamurai Fight House 5W------------
Feb 12, 2022Diego BasualdoSamurai Fight House 3W------------
Nov 6, 2021Gabriel RibeiroSamurai Fight House 2W------------
Aug 21, 2021Lucas TavaresSamurai Fight House 1W------------
Jun 4, 2021Hugo NogueiraNFCW------------
Apr 24, 2021Octavio JobetCAM 2W------------
Dec 7, 2019Fernando SilveiraParana StrikeW------------
Oct 12, 2019Rodrigo GigenaFighting Champions 1W------------
Jul 6, 2019Ayrton PuyPower FightW------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Apr 11, 2026Charles RadtkeUFC 327L3381500000002
Jul 19, 2025Nikolay VeretennikovUFC 318L0081000000001
Feb 8, 2025Jake MatthewsUFC 312L001100000000
Feb 24, 2024Daniel ZellhuberUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Jul 15, 2023Ottman AzaitarUFC Fight NightW00202600000000
Feb 11, 2023Jamie MullarkeyUFC 284L000000000001
Dec 16, 2022Jose Barrios VargasSamurai Fight House 8W------------
Oct 15, 2022Adrian PerroneSamurai Fight House 6W------------
Jun 19, 2022Mauricio Ariel PareSamurai Fight House 5W------------
Feb 12, 2022Diego BasualdoSamurai Fight House 3W------------
Nov 6, 2021Gabriel RibeiroSamurai Fight House 2W------------
Aug 21, 2021Lucas TavaresSamurai Fight House 1W------------
Jun 4, 2021Hugo NogueiraNFCW------------
Apr 24, 2021Octavio JobetCAM 2W------------
Dec 7, 2019Fernando SilveiraParana StrikeW------------
Oct 12, 2019Rodrigo GigenaFighting Champions 1W------------
Jul 6, 2019Ayrton PuyPower FightW------------

Ismael Bonfim

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Jul 25, 2026Axel SolaUFC Fight NightL0/00/11/2131333.33%00%0%50%
Nov 8, 2025Chris PadillaUFC Fight NightL12/1327/683/34789428452.81%092%40%100%
Feb 15, 2025Nazim SadykhovUFC Fight NightL3/314/287/82643264260.47%0100%48%88%
May 4, 2024Vinc PichelUFC 301W13/1977/17117/1911221711121651.61%065%46%90%
Jul 1, 2023Benoît Saint DenisUFC Fight NightL1/14/143/31526142457.69%0100%47%100%
Jan 21, 2023Terrance McKinneyUFC 283W9/1015/290/03853344971.70%194%53%100%
Sep 6, 2022Nariman AbbasovDana White's Contender SeriesW18/2056/1203/4851588515853.80%190%47%75%
Mar 11, 2022Andrey AugustoLFA 126W------------
Jul 16, 2021Rangel de SaLFA 111W------------
Sep 5, 2020Jaoa Lucas NetoFF 2W------------
Dec 12, 2019Edvan ReisFSW------------
Apr 6, 2019Rodrigo Silva FernandesSamurai Fight 2W------------
Dec 22, 2018Mateus Nascimento Nery da CruzJungle Fight 94W------------
Oct 27, 2017Edilson dos Santos PiresShooto BrazilW------------
May 28, 2017Gláucio EliziárioShooto BrazilW------------
Nov 26, 2016Jaoa Lucas NetoFederal Gladiators Combat 2W------------
Dec 5, 2015Fabio LimaJungle Fight 84W------------
Jun 11, 2015Lucas CaioCF - Capital Fight 6W------------
Jul 19, 2014Renato MoicanoJungle Fight 71L------------
May 3, 2014Leonardo Carvalho MullerJungle Fight 69W------------
Dec 7, 2013Denis SilvaJungle Fight 62W------------
Jul 12, 2013Marcio CesarShootoW------------
May 26, 2013Arthur AlencarParanoa Fight - MMAW------------
Jan 12, 2013Vinicius Luiz da SilvaPC - Precol Combat 9W------------
Oct 29, 2011Jefferson LucasRockstrike - MMA 4L------------
Sep 4, 2011Adriano MoraesPCL0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Aug 13, 2011Lucas OyapockRMMA - Rockstrike MMA 2W------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Jul 25, 2026Axel SolaUFC Fight NightL00000000.00013033%
Nov 8, 2025Chris PadillaUFC Fight NightL00000000.00013033%
Feb 15, 2025Nazim SadykhovUFC Fight NightL22010000.0000000%
May 4, 2024Vinc PichelUFC 301W01230000.00012050%
Jul 1, 2023Benoît Saint DenisUFC Fight NightL11440000.0000000%
Jan 21, 2023Terrance McKinneyUFC 283W77112200.00014025%
Sep 6, 2022Nariman AbbasovDana White's Contender SeriesW11460000.00013033%
Mar 11, 2022Andrey AugustoLFA 126W------------
Jul 16, 2021Rangel de SaLFA 111W------------
Sep 5, 2020Jaoa Lucas NetoFF 2W------------
Dec 12, 2019Edvan ReisFSW------------
Apr 6, 2019Rodrigo Silva FernandesSamurai Fight 2W------------
Dec 22, 2018Mateus Nascimento Nery da CruzJungle Fight 94W------------
Oct 27, 2017Edilson dos Santos PiresShooto BrazilW------------
May 28, 2017Gláucio EliziárioShooto BrazilW------------
Nov 26, 2016Jaoa Lucas NetoFederal Gladiators Combat 2W------------
Dec 5, 2015Fabio LimaJungle Fight 84W------------
Jun 11, 2015Lucas CaioCF - Capital Fight 6W------------
Jul 19, 2014Renato MoicanoJungle Fight 71L------------
May 3, 2014Leonardo Carvalho MullerJungle Fight 69W------------
Dec 7, 2013Denis SilvaJungle Fight 62W------------
Jul 12, 2013Marcio CesarShootoW------------
May 26, 2013Arthur AlencarParanoa Fight - MMAW------------
Jan 12, 2013Vinicius Luiz da SilvaPC - Precol Combat 9W------------
Oct 29, 2011Jefferson LucasRockstrike - MMA 4L------------
Sep 4, 2011Adriano MoraesPCL00000000.0000000%
Aug 13, 2011Lucas OyapockRMMA - Rockstrike MMA 2W------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Jul 25, 2026Axel SolaUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Nov 8, 2025Chris PadillaUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Feb 15, 2025Nazim SadykhovUFC Fight NightL000000000000
May 4, 2024Vinc PichelUFC 301W001211000000
Jul 1, 2023Benoît Saint DenisUFC Fight NightL001100000000
Jan 21, 2023Terrance McKinneyUFC 283W000000000000
Sep 6, 2022Nariman AbbasovDana White's Contender SeriesW003700000000
Mar 11, 2022Andrey AugustoLFA 126W------------
Jul 16, 2021Rangel de SaLFA 111W------------
Sep 5, 2020Jaoa Lucas NetoFF 2W------------
Dec 12, 2019Edvan ReisFSW------------
Apr 6, 2019Rodrigo Silva FernandesSamurai Fight 2W------------
Dec 22, 2018Mateus Nascimento Nery da CruzJungle Fight 94W------------
Oct 27, 2017Edilson dos Santos PiresShooto BrazilW------------
May 28, 2017Gláucio EliziárioShooto BrazilW------------
Nov 26, 2016Jaoa Lucas NetoFederal Gladiators Combat 2W------------
Dec 5, 2015Fabio LimaJungle Fight 84W------------
Jun 11, 2015Lucas CaioCF - Capital Fight 6W------------
Jul 19, 2014Renato MoicanoJungle Fight 71L------------
May 3, 2014Leonardo Carvalho MullerJungle Fight 69W------------
Dec 7, 2013Denis SilvaJungle Fight 62W------------
Jul 12, 2013Marcio CesarShootoW------------
May 26, 2013Arthur AlencarParanoa Fight - MMAW------------
Jan 12, 2013Vinicius Luiz da SilvaPC - Precol Combat 9W------------
Oct 29, 2011Jefferson LucasRockstrike - MMA 4L------------
Sep 4, 2011Adriano MoraesPCL000000000000
Aug 13, 2011Lucas OyapockRMMA - Rockstrike MMA 2W------------
How the 100-sim board works
Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan

Simcage Pro · n=100

PASS

75%

Price

25%

Shahbazyan

PASS. Sample gate still fails. Do not print 75 as a play.

39%

KO/TKO

49%

SUB

12%

DEC

Finish-round histogram

54R1
14R2
20R3
12DEC

Goes the distance 12%

Pace SLpM 11.21, SApM 14.02, TD avg/15 2.47. Model output, not an official result. No betting line. Price 16-11-0 US. SLpM 5.11 acc 43% SApM 5.57 def 48% TD 1.06/30% TDdef 50% sub 0.6. Last 5: Chiesa L RNC R1 1:03; Veretennikov L strikes R1 1:42; Jacobe Smith L RNC R2 4:03; Gorimbo L UD R3; Morono W UD R3. Leon Shahbazyan 12-5-0 US, not Edmen Shahbazyan. SLpM 6.10 acc 52% SApM 8.45 def 33% TD 1.41/50% TDdef 0% sub 0.0. Sig 65/125. Two listed UFC bouts, both losses: Chokheli L strikes R1 0:23; Rowe L strikes R3 0:16. Career sub wins are 11 but UFC sub avg prints 0.0. No sub rate filled in. n=100 on the rates: Price 75, Leon Shahbazyan 25. Not a play. KO/TKO 39, SUB 49, DEC 12. Hist R1 54 R2 14 R3 20 DEC 12. Sample gate still fails.

ESPN striking, clinch, ground

Niko Price

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Mar 28, 2026Michael ChiesaUFC Fight NightL0/00/20/0131333.33%0100%0%0%
Feb 7, 2026Nikolay VeretennikovUFC Fight NightL1/17/181/3122792344.44%0100%37%33%
Jun 28, 2025Jacobe SmithUFC 317L2/514/3311/114676346160.53%057%44%100%
Oct 12, 2024Themba GorimboUFC Fight NightL1/49/391/558100165358.00%040%30%20%
Jun 1, 2024Alex MoronoUFC 302W19/2753/1456/1013825910822453.28%073%43%60%
Jul 8, 2023Robbie LawlerUFC 290L0/10/31/2272728.57%050%0%50%
Dec 3, 2022Phil RoweUFC Fight NightL12/1648/17428/2815029311024751.19%073%34%100%
Oct 2, 2021Alex OliveiraUFC Fight NightW4/821/6320/221081676411664.67%064%45%91%
Jul 10, 2021Michel PereiraUFC 264L8/1635/12122/261202297618052.40%061%31%82%
Sep 19, 2020Donald CerroneUFC Fight NightD21/3271/21037/4216733015031250.61%071%36%89%
May 9, 2020Vicente LuqueUFC 249L12/2071/21233/3614430712929146.91%060%35%92%
Oct 12, 2019James VickUFC Fight NightW0/01/81/11528112253.57%150%48%100%
Jul 27, 2019Geoff NealUFC 240L3/99/282/24279245753.16%150%37%100%
Mar 9, 2019Tim MeansUFC Fight NightW1/514/378/103673326749.32%133%44%80%
Sep 8, 2018Abdul Razak AlhassanUFC 228L2/42/60/041041040.00%050%33%0%
Jul 14, 2018Randy BrownUFC Fight NightW0/10/192/34081123949.38%033%27%67%
Jan 27, 2018George SullivanUFC Fight NightW3/55/193/33567244752.24%078%38%100%
Oct 28, 2017Vicente LuqueUFC Fight NightL0/420/864/526100259926.00%00%23%80%
Aug 5, 2017Alan JoubanUFC Fight NightW0/03/103/31019101952.63%1100%40%100%
Feb 4, 2017Alex MoronoUFC Fight NightD0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Dec 30, 2016Brandon ThatchUFC 207W0/02/92/3183061660.00%0100%25%67%
Aug 12, 2016Willie HoschFight Time PromotionsW------------
Apr 22, 2016Jose CaceresFight Time PromotionsW------------
Jul 17, 2015Maurice SalmonFight Time PromotionsW------------
Feb 6, 2015Michael LillyFight Time 23W------------
Nov 7, 2014Danilo Padilha da SilvaFight Time 21W------------
Aug 29, 2014David HayesFight Time 20W------------
May 30, 2014Mikerson LindorFight Time 19W------------
Feb 17, 2012Alejandro GomezFight Time 8W0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Mar 28, 2026Michael ChiesaUFC Fight NightL11000000.000110100%
Feb 7, 2026Nikolay VeretennikovUFC Fight NightL00010000.0000000%
Jun 28, 2025Jacobe SmithUFC 317L22120000.0000200%
Oct 12, 2024Themba GorimboUFC Fight NightL11440000.0000300%
Jun 1, 2024Alex MoronoUFC 302W346150010.000550100%
Jul 8, 2023Robbie LawlerUFC 290L11000000.0000000%
Dec 3, 2022Phil RoweUFC Fight NightL4610150000.0000200%
Oct 2, 2021Alex OliveiraUFC Fight NightW11110000.00013033%
Jul 10, 2021Michel PereiraUFC 264L67370000.0000200%
Sep 19, 2020Donald CerroneUFC Fight NightD9109140000.0000100%
May 9, 2020Vicente LuqueUFC 249L247150000.25014125%
Oct 12, 2019James VickUFC Fight NightW00000000.0000100%
Jul 27, 2019Geoff NealUFC 240L45230010.0000200%
Mar 9, 2019Tim MeansUFC Fight NightW13360000.0000000%
Sep 8, 2018Abdul Razak AlhassanUFC 228L00000000.0000100%
Jul 14, 2018Randy BrownUFC Fight NightW12020010.00012050%
Jan 27, 2018George SullivanUFC Fight NightW33391110.00025040%
Oct 28, 2017Vicente LuqueUFC Fight NightL00140000.0000100%
Aug 5, 2017Alan JoubanUFC Fight NightW00000000.0000000%
Feb 4, 2017Alex MoronoUFC Fight NightD00000000.0000000%
Dec 30, 2016Brandon ThatchUFC 207W11000000.00014025%
Aug 12, 2016Willie HoschFight Time PromotionsW------------
Apr 22, 2016Jose CaceresFight Time PromotionsW------------
Jul 17, 2015Maurice SalmonFight Time PromotionsW------------
Feb 6, 2015Michael LillyFight Time 23W------------
Nov 7, 2014Danilo Padilha da SilvaFight Time 21W------------
Aug 29, 2014David HayesFight Time 20W------------
May 30, 2014Mikerson LindorFight Time 19W------------
Feb 17, 2012Alejandro GomezFight Time 8W00000000.0000000%

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Mar 28, 2026Michael ChiesaUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Feb 7, 2026Nikolay VeretennikovUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Jun 28, 2025Jacobe SmithUFC 317L004800000000
Oct 12, 2024Themba GorimboUFC Fight NightL000000000001
Jun 1, 2024Alex MoronoUFC 302W22192100000000
Jul 8, 2023Robbie LawlerUFC 290L000000000000
Dec 3, 2022Phil RoweUFC Fight NightL008800000000
Oct 2, 2021Alex OliveiraUFC Fight NightW22151900000000
Jul 10, 2021Michel PereiraUFC 264L002201000001
Sep 19, 2020Donald CerroneUFC Fight NightD000133000000
May 9, 2020Vicente LuqueUFC 249L113300101000
Oct 12, 2019James VickUFC Fight NightW0091300100010
Jul 27, 2019Geoff NealUFC 240L0041000101000
Mar 9, 2019Tim MeansUFC Fight NightW114500000000
Sep 8, 2018Abdul Razak AlhassanUFC 228L000000000000
Jul 14, 2018Randy BrownUFC Fight NightW0091200000000
Jan 27, 2018George SullivanUFC Fight NightW115600311013
Oct 28, 2017Vicente LuqueUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Aug 5, 2017Alan JoubanUFC Fight NightW113500110000
Feb 4, 2017Alex MoronoUFC Fight NightD000000000000
Dec 30, 2016Brandon ThatchUFC 207W001300211002
Aug 12, 2016Willie HoschFight Time PromotionsW------------
Apr 22, 2016Jose CaceresFight Time PromotionsW------------
Jul 17, 2015Maurice SalmonFight Time PromotionsW------------
Feb 6, 2015Michael LillyFight Time 23W------------
Nov 7, 2014Danilo Padilha da SilvaFight Time 21W------------
Aug 29, 2014David HayesFight Time 20W------------
May 30, 2014Mikerson LindorFight Time 19W------------
Feb 17, 2012Alejandro GomezFight Time 8W000000000000

Leon Shahbazyan

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Jun 20, 2026Levan ChokheliUFC Fight NightL0/10/00/001010.00%00%0%0%
Mar 13, 2026Robert HaleTuff-N-Uff 152W------------
Sep 26, 2025Gláucio EliziárioTuff-N-Uff 148W------------
Jul 17, 2025Aaron PhillipsTuff-N-Uff 146W------------
Feb 14, 2025Aireon TavarresTuff-N-Uff 141W------------
May 13, 2023Ryan LoderUnited Fight League 2L------------
Oct 2, 2021Marcus HardawayGladiator ChallengeW------------
Aug 7, 2021Moses MurriettaLights Out Xtreme Fighting 5L------------
Aug 20, 2019Phil RoweDana White's Contender SeriesL22/2626/733/4701316512453.44%185%43%75%
Oct 20, 2018Daniel McWilliamsCXF 15W------------
Apr 21, 2018Tyree CarterGladiator ChallengeW------------
Oct 7, 2017Christopher WhiteGladiator ChallengeW------------
Jun 17, 2017Gabe GreenCXF 8L------------
May 20, 2017John NelsonGladiator ChallengeW------------
Feb 25, 2017Quinton McCottrellCXF 6W------------
Dec 17, 2016Akkim LeeCXF 5W------------
Jun 25, 2016Eric JohnsonCXF 3W------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Jun 20, 2026Levan ChokheliUFC Fight NightL00000000.0000000%
Mar 13, 2026Robert HaleTuff-N-Uff 152W------------
Sep 26, 2025Gláucio EliziárioTuff-N-Uff 148W------------
Jul 17, 2025Aaron PhillipsTuff-N-Uff 146W------------
Feb 14, 2025Aireon TavarresTuff-N-Uff 141W------------
May 13, 2023Ryan LoderUnited Fight League 2L------------
Oct 2, 2021Marcus HardawayGladiator ChallengeW------------
Aug 7, 2021Moses MurriettaLights Out Xtreme Fighting 5L------------
Aug 20, 2019Phil RoweDana White's Contender SeriesL00340000.00012050%
Oct 20, 2018Daniel McWilliamsCXF 15W------------
Apr 21, 2018Tyree CarterGladiator ChallengeW------------
Oct 7, 2017Christopher WhiteGladiator ChallengeW------------
Jun 17, 2017Gabe GreenCXF 8L------------
May 20, 2017John NelsonGladiator ChallengeW------------
Feb 25, 2017Quinton McCottrellCXF 6W------------
Dec 17, 2016Akkim LeeCXF 5W------------
Jun 25, 2016Eric JohnsonCXF 3W------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Jun 20, 2026Levan ChokheliUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Mar 13, 2026Robert HaleTuff-N-Uff 152W------------
Sep 26, 2025Gláucio EliziárioTuff-N-Uff 148W------------
Jul 17, 2025Aaron PhillipsTuff-N-Uff 146W------------
Feb 14, 2025Aireon TavarresTuff-N-Uff 141W------------
May 13, 2023Ryan LoderUnited Fight League 2L------------
Oct 2, 2021Marcus HardawayGladiator ChallengeW------------
Aug 7, 2021Moses MurriettaLights Out Xtreme Fighting 5L------------
Aug 20, 2019Phil RoweDana White's Contender SeriesL00111700101000
Oct 20, 2018Daniel McWilliamsCXF 15W------------
Apr 21, 2018Tyree CarterGladiator ChallengeW------------
Oct 7, 2017Christopher WhiteGladiator ChallengeW------------
Jun 17, 2017Gabe GreenCXF 8L------------
May 20, 2017John NelsonGladiator ChallengeW------------
Feb 25, 2017Quinton McCottrellCXF 6W------------
Dec 17, 2016Akkim LeeCXF 5W------------
Jun 25, 2016Eric JohnsonCXF 3W------------
How the 100-sim board works
Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro

Simcage Pro · n=100

PLAY

75%

Franco

25%

Ribeiro

Best plays · PLAY Franco. Takedown pressure better by 0.97 per 15 into Ribeiro's 32% TD def. Sample is the thin side of the gate. DEC 2 is the printed decision-share limit, not a prediction the fight cannot go the distance.

64%

KO/TKO

34%

SUB

2%

DEC

Finish-round histogram

79R1
12R2
7R3
2DEC

Goes the distance 2%

Pace SLpM 5.49, SApM 5.95, TD avg/15 4.36. Model output, not an official result. No betting line. Franco 11-2-0 BR. SLpM 2.55 acc 57% SApM 2.39 def 43% TD 3.70/40% TDdef 87% sub 0.0. UFC.com left takedowns landed blank, so 40% is ufcstats only. Printed decision share of wins is 0% but that is not a claim the fight cannot go to a decision. Last 3: Rodrigues W strikes R2 1:40; Pinto L UD R3; Vidal L RNC R3 4:48. Ribeiro 17-11-0 BR. SLpM 2.94 acc 40% SApM 3.56 def 53% TD 0.66/37% TDdef 32% sub 0.4. Last 5: Tuchalov L UD R3; Yakhyaev L RNC R1 2:52; Sy L strikes (round not settled: history says R2 4:42, widget and ESPN say R1 4:42 — neither round is picked); Murzakanov L strikes R1 3:25; Nurgozhay W kimura R2 1:28. n=100: Franco 75, Ribeiro 25. KO/TKO 64, SUB 34, DEC 2. Hist R1 79 R2 12 R3 7. DEC 2 is the printed decision-share limit.

ESPN striking, clinch, ground

Felipe Franco

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Jul 18, 2026Levi Rodrigues Jr.UFC Fight NightW1/111/190/05272395672.22%0100%69%0%
Mar 21, 2026Mario PintoUFC Fight NightL3/49/461/160100216060.00%088%26%100%
Feb 7, 2026Douglas Felipe SantosMamute Fight Champion 10W------------
Dec 11, 2025Kleberson TavaresColiseu Extreme Fight 14W------------
Sep 9, 2025Freddy VidalDana White's Contender SeriesL4/410/210/04257334673.68%092%62%80%
Aug 31, 2024Murilo Magalhaes dos Santos FerreiraQualify Combat 14W------------
Jul 13, 2024Luiz HenriquePenedo Fight Night 3W------------
Jun 1, 2024Nilton Eduardo Silva dos SantosJuaFight 1W------------
Apr 28, 2024Lucas da Paixao NascimentoDemo Fight 19W------------
Jan 27, 2024Mylksom MirandaDemo Fight 18W------------
Aug 18, 2023Ivonilson Dias SantosCandeias MMA ExperienceW------------
Mar 25, 2023Rubens SantosDemo Fight 16W------------
Nov 5, 2022Benicio DiasWS Fighting 6W------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Jul 18, 2026Levi Rodrigues Jr.UFC Fight NightW00000000.00036050%
Mar 21, 2026Mario PintoUFC Fight NightL44450000.0000100%
Feb 7, 2026Douglas Felipe SantosMamute Fight Champion 10W------------
Dec 11, 2025Kleberson TavaresColiseu Extreme Fight 14W------------
Sep 9, 2025Freddy VidalDana White's Contender SeriesL78774500.000615040%
Aug 31, 2024Murilo Magalhaes dos Santos FerreiraQualify Combat 14W------------
Jul 13, 2024Luiz HenriquePenedo Fight Night 3W------------
Jun 1, 2024Nilton Eduardo Silva dos SantosJuaFight 1W------------
Apr 28, 2024Lucas da Paixao NascimentoDemo Fight 19W------------
Jan 27, 2024Mylksom MirandaDemo Fight 18W------------
Aug 18, 2023Ivonilson Dias SantosCandeias MMA ExperienceW------------
Mar 25, 2023Rubens SantosDemo Fight 16W------------
Nov 5, 2022Benicio DiasWS Fighting 6W------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Jul 18, 2026Levi Rodrigues Jr.UFC Fight NightW00273600000000
Mar 21, 2026Mario PintoUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Feb 7, 2026Douglas Felipe SantosMamute Fight Champion 10W------------
Dec 11, 2025Kleberson TavaresColiseu Extreme Fight 14W------------
Sep 9, 2025Freddy VidalDana White's Contender SeriesL001100000000
Aug 31, 2024Murilo Magalhaes dos Santos FerreiraQualify Combat 14W------------
Jul 13, 2024Luiz HenriquePenedo Fight Night 3W------------
Jun 1, 2024Nilton Eduardo Silva dos SantosJuaFight 1W------------
Apr 28, 2024Lucas da Paixao NascimentoDemo Fight 19W------------
Jan 27, 2024Mylksom MirandaDemo Fight 18W------------
Aug 18, 2023Ivonilson Dias SantosCandeias MMA ExperienceW------------
Mar 25, 2023Rubens SantosDemo Fight 16W------------
Nov 5, 2022Benicio DiasWS Fighting 6W------------

Brendson Ribeiro

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Jul 25, 2026Magomed TuchalovUFC Fight NightL4/1116/7017/34491303911837.69%036%25%50%
Apr 4, 2026Abdul-Rakhman YakhyaevUFC Fight NightL1/15/132/381781747.06%0100%38%67%
Sep 6, 2025Oumar SyUFC Fight NightL1/22/102/2112251450.00%050%20%100%
Jun 7, 2025Azamat MurzakanovUFC 316L2/23/163/482282236.36%0100%19%75%
Mar 15, 2025Diyar NurgozhayUFC Fight NightW5/1013/3510/132960285848.33%150%37%77%
Nov 2, 2024Caio MachadoUFC Fight NightW16/2525/928/13491314913137.40%064%27%62%
Jun 22, 2024Magomed GadzhiyasulovUFC Fight NightL4/42/137/122951173556.86%0100%32%58%
Feb 17, 2024Zhang MingyangUFC 298L0/014/310/01431143145.16%00%45%0%
Sep 5, 2023Bruno LopesDana White's Contender SeriesW0/124/564/73269326946.38%10%46%57%
Dec 16, 2022Joao Paulo FagundesShooto Brazil 114W------------
Sep 3, 2022Gilmar Dutra LimaNCW------------
Feb 23, 2022David BarkhudaryanAMC Fight Nights 109L------------
Jan 23, 2022Marcio BrenoBig Shot Fight 2L------------
Aug 1, 2021Leon Soares De DeusFuture FCW------------
May 27, 2021Flavio Rodrigo MagonNacao Cyborg 8W------------
Aug 16, 2018Ledson Heider BatistaSFCW------------
Mar 10, 2018Denis VygovskyM-1 Challenge 89L------------
Jan 25, 2018Matheus CorreaRevelation FCD------------
Dec 16, 2017Danilo MaikuaraCombate ParaW------------
May 13, 2017Oscar Bruno Araujo AlvesSombra Fight Champions 4W------------
Jul 9, 2016Marcio Alexandre Jr.AFC 41L------------
May 13, 2016Yuri FragaRevelation FCL------------
Mar 12, 2016Junior FurtosoHDH 69/Revelation FCW------------
Jan 29, 2016Pedro Henrique QueirozRevelation FCW------------
Dec 12, 2015Fausto De SouzaFusion FightW------------
Nov 13, 2015Antonio ArroyoRevelation FCW0/00/00/00000-00%0%0%
Jul 23, 2015Diego MaiaHard FightW------------
Jul 15, 2015Kelvin SilvaSalvaterra Marajo Fight 2W------------
Jul 10, 2015Erison FernandezFDAMW------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Jul 25, 2026Magomed TuchalovUFC Fight NightL00000000.0000100%
Apr 4, 2026Abdul-Rakhman YakhyaevUFC Fight NightL00000000.0000000%
Sep 6, 2025Oumar SyUFC Fight NightL00000000.0000000%
Jun 7, 2025Azamat MurzakanovUFC 316L00000000.0000000%
Mar 15, 2025Diyar NurgozhayUFC Fight NightW00000010.0000100%
Nov 2, 2024Caio MachadoUFC Fight NightW00010000.0000000%
Jun 22, 2024Magomed GadzhiyasulovUFC Fight NightL00350010.00036050%
Feb 17, 2024Zhang MingyangUFC 298L00000000.0000000%
Sep 5, 2023Bruno LopesDana White's Contender SeriesW00000000.0000000%
Dec 16, 2022Joao Paulo FagundesShooto Brazil 114W------------
Sep 3, 2022Gilmar Dutra LimaNCW------------
Feb 23, 2022David BarkhudaryanAMC Fight Nights 109L------------
Jan 23, 2022Marcio BrenoBig Shot Fight 2L------------
Aug 1, 2021Leon Soares De DeusFuture FCW------------
May 27, 2021Flavio Rodrigo MagonNacao Cyborg 8W------------
Aug 16, 2018Ledson Heider BatistaSFCW------------
Mar 10, 2018Denis VygovskyM-1 Challenge 89L------------
Jan 25, 2018Matheus CorreaRevelation FCD------------
Dec 16, 2017Danilo MaikuaraCombate ParaW------------
May 13, 2017Oscar Bruno Araujo AlvesSombra Fight Champions 4W------------
Jul 9, 2016Marcio Alexandre Jr.AFC 41L------------
May 13, 2016Yuri FragaRevelation FCL------------
Mar 12, 2016Junior FurtosoHDH 69/Revelation FCW------------
Jan 29, 2016Pedro Henrique QueirozRevelation FCW------------
Dec 12, 2015Fausto De SouzaFusion FightW------------
Nov 13, 2015Antonio ArroyoRevelation FCW00000000.0000000%
Jul 23, 2015Diego MaiaHard FightW------------
Jul 15, 2015Kelvin SilvaSalvaterra Marajo Fight 2W------------
Jul 10, 2015Erison FernandezFDAMW------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Jul 25, 2026Magomed TuchalovUFC Fight NightL002300000000
Apr 4, 2026Abdul-Rakhman YakhyaevUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Sep 6, 2025Oumar SyUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Jun 7, 2025Azamat MurzakanovUFC 316L000000000000
Mar 15, 2025Diyar NurgozhayUFC Fight NightW000000000001
Nov 2, 2024Caio MachadoUFC Fight NightW000000000000
Jun 22, 2024Magomed GadzhiyasulovUFC Fight NightL001100000001
Feb 17, 2024Zhang MingyangUFC 298L000000000000
Sep 5, 2023Bruno LopesDana White's Contender SeriesW004500000000
Dec 16, 2022Joao Paulo FagundesShooto Brazil 114W------------
Sep 3, 2022Gilmar Dutra LimaNCW------------
Feb 23, 2022David BarkhudaryanAMC Fight Nights 109L------------
Jan 23, 2022Marcio BrenoBig Shot Fight 2L------------
Aug 1, 2021Leon Soares De DeusFuture FCW------------
May 27, 2021Flavio Rodrigo MagonNacao Cyborg 8W------------
Aug 16, 2018Ledson Heider BatistaSFCW------------
Mar 10, 2018Denis VygovskyM-1 Challenge 89L------------
Jan 25, 2018Matheus CorreaRevelation FCD------------
Dec 16, 2017Danilo MaikuaraCombate ParaW------------
May 13, 2017Oscar Bruno Araujo AlvesSombra Fight Champions 4W------------
Jul 9, 2016Marcio Alexandre Jr.AFC 41L------------
May 13, 2016Yuri FragaRevelation FCL------------
Mar 12, 2016Junior FurtosoHDH 69/Revelation FCW------------
Jan 29, 2016Pedro Henrique QueirozRevelation FCW------------
Dec 12, 2015Fausto De SouzaFusion FightW------------
Nov 13, 2015Antonio ArroyoRevelation FCW000000000000
Jul 23, 2015Diego MaiaHard FightW------------
Jul 15, 2015Kelvin SilvaSalvaterra Marajo Fight 2W------------
Jul 10, 2015Erison FernandezFDAMW------------
How the 100-sim board works
Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ Harris

Simcage Pro · n=100

PASS

No public win line.

PASS. One UFC bout each. Sample is too thin to sim a probability. No public win line. A rate-only run printed Frye 1 / Harris 99. That 99 is not a play. Harris KD avg 9.00 stays capped and is not used raw.

55%

KO/TKO

37%

SUB

8%

DEC

Finish-round histogram

46R1
27R2
19R3
8DEC

Goes the distance 8%

Pace SLpM 11.20, SApM 10.87, TD avg/15 0.00. Model output, not an official result. No betting line. Both rates are one-bout artifacts. Frye 6-1-0 US. SLpM 2.20 acc 38% SApM 4.27 def 36% TD 0 sub 0. One listed bout: Pat L UD R3. Sig 33/86. Harris 6-0-0 US. SLpM 9.00 acc 57% SApM 6.60 def 56% TD 0 sub 0. KD avg prints 9.00 — 9.00 raw is not used. One listed bout: Hines W strikes R1 1:40. Sig 15/26. Avg fight time 1:40. No public win line. Bars from the one-bout rate run only: KO/TKO 55, SUB 37, DEC 8. Hist R1 46 R2 27 R3 19 DEC 8. Not a play.

ESPN striking, clinch, ground

Allen Frye Jr.

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Dec 13, 2025Guilherme PatUFC Fight NightL1/114/594/973132338655.30%0100%26%44%
Sep 6, 2025Justin FrazierReal Deal ChampionshipsW------------
Jun 14, 2025Ryan ShoughUltimate Battle Grounds 25W------------
Jan 18, 2025Cody BeckReal Deal ChampionshipsW------------
Jul 13, 2024Mark GordonMade Men PromotionsW------------
Feb 11, 2023David CiucleaUltimate Battle Grounds 13W------------
Sep 17, 2022Brian JacksonUltimate Battle Grounds 12W------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Dec 13, 2025Guilherme PatUFC Fight NightL1111360000.0000000%
Sep 6, 2025Justin FrazierReal Deal ChampionshipsW------------
Jun 14, 2025Ryan ShoughUltimate Battle Grounds 25W------------
Jan 18, 2025Cody BeckReal Deal ChampionshipsW------------
Jul 13, 2024Mark GordonMade Men PromotionsW------------
Feb 11, 2023David CiucleaUltimate Battle Grounds 13W------------
Sep 17, 2022Brian JacksonUltimate Battle Grounds 12W------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Dec 13, 2025Guilherme PatUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Sep 6, 2025Justin FrazierReal Deal ChampionshipsW------------
Jun 14, 2025Ryan ShoughUltimate Battle Grounds 25W------------
Jan 18, 2025Cody BeckReal Deal ChampionshipsW------------
Jul 13, 2024Mark GordonMade Men PromotionsW------------
Feb 11, 2023David CiucleaUltimate Battle Grounds 13W------------
Sep 17, 2022Brian JacksonUltimate Battle Grounds 12W------------

RJ Harris

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Jul 18, 2026Alvin HinesUFC Fight NightW0/04/83/31728152660.71%10%52%100%
Apr 17, 2026Phil LatuLFA 231W------------
Nov 21, 2025Alex MarroLFA 223W------------
Sep 13, 2025Austin GreenCaged Thunder 34W------------
Jun 7, 2025Charlie ClevelandCaged Thunder 32W------------
Mar 1, 2025Quentin CampbellOhio Combat League 36W------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Jul 18, 2026Alvin HinesUFC Fight NightW00000000.0000000%
Apr 17, 2026Phil LatuLFA 231W------------
Nov 21, 2025Alex MarroLFA 223W------------
Sep 13, 2025Austin GreenCaged Thunder 34W------------
Jun 7, 2025Charlie ClevelandCaged Thunder 32W------------
Mar 1, 2025Quentin CampbellOhio Combat League 36W------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Jul 18, 2026Alvin HinesUFC Fight NightW0081500000000
Apr 17, 2026Phil LatuLFA 231W------------
Nov 21, 2025Alex MarroLFA 223W------------
Sep 13, 2025Austin GreenCaged Thunder 34W------------
Jun 7, 2025Charlie ClevelandCaged Thunder 32W------------
Mar 1, 2025Quentin CampbellOhio Combat League 36W------------
How the 100-sim board works
Alice Pereira vs Daria Zhelezniakova

Simcage Pro · n=100

PASS

46%

Pereira

54%

Zhelezniakova

PASS.

62%

KO/TKO

8%

SUB

30%

DEC

Finish-round histogram

31R1
27R2
12R3
30DEC

Goes the distance 30%

Pace SLpM 6.96, SApM 6.49, TD avg/15 0.31. Model output, not an official result. No betting line. Pereira 7-1-0 BR. SLpM 2.83 acc 36% SApM 3.11 def 66% TD 0 TDdef 75% sub 0. Last 2: Cowan W KO R2 4:24; Rendon L split R3. Zhelezniakova 10-3-0 RU. SLpM 4.13 acc 40% SApM 3.38 def 64% TD 0.31/100% TDdef 50% sub 0. The 100% TD acc sits on 0.31 avg. Last 4: Croden L UD R3; Mullins W UD R3; Perez L arm-triangle R1 3:52; Rendon W UD R3. n=100: Pereira 46, Zhelezniakova 54. KO/TKO 62, SUB 8, DEC 30. Hist R1 31 R2 27 R3 12.

ESPN striking, clinch, ground

Alice Pereira

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Apr 4, 2026Hailey CowanUFC Fight NightW8/1318/491/286128327167.19%167%39%50%
Sep 13, 2025Montse RendonNoche UFCL5/1029/1031/2431233711734.96%058%28%50%
Dec 14, 2024Samara SantosCage Masters FC 2W------------
Aug 31, 2024Karla ThaisQualify Combat 14W------------
Jul 27, 2024Hosana EnnyDubai Fight 2W------------
Apr 28, 2024Kristiane SilvaDemo Fight 19W------------
Nov 25, 2023Sharolayne AlmeidaTucano Fight Combat 3W------------
Aug 18, 2023Raquel de AndradeCandeias MMA ExperienceW------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Apr 4, 2026Hailey CowanUFC Fight NightW22130000.0000000%
Sep 13, 2025Montse RendonNoche UFCL22000000.0000300%
Dec 14, 2024Samara SantosCage Masters FC 2W------------
Aug 31, 2024Karla ThaisQualify Combat 14W------------
Jul 27, 2024Hosana EnnyDubai Fight 2W------------
Apr 28, 2024Kristiane SilvaDemo Fight 19W------------
Nov 25, 2023Sharolayne AlmeidaTucano Fight Combat 3W------------
Aug 18, 2023Raquel de AndradeCandeias MMA ExperienceW------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Apr 4, 2026Hailey CowanUFC Fight NightW002200000000
Sep 13, 2025Montse RendonNoche UFCL000000000000
Dec 14, 2024Samara SantosCage Masters FC 2W------------
Aug 31, 2024Karla ThaisQualify Combat 14W------------
Jul 27, 2024Hosana EnnyDubai Fight 2W------------
Apr 28, 2024Kristiane SilvaDemo Fight 19W------------
Nov 25, 2023Sharolayne AlmeidaTucano Fight Combat 3W------------
Aug 18, 2023Raquel de AndradeCandeias MMA ExperienceW------------

Daria Zhelezniakova

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Apr 18, 2026Melissa CrodenUFC Fight NightL3/928/934/4811634111849.69%050%30%100%
Jun 21, 2025Melissa MullinsUFC Fight NightW32/5166/1690/01032289922345.18%063%39%0%
Sep 28, 2024Ailin PerezUFC Fight NightL1/23/90/0122151257.14%050%40%0%
Mar 23, 2024Montse RendonUFC Fight NightW15/1936/1250/0731715715042.69%084%29%0%
Apr 7, 2023Marie LoiseauAres FC 14W------------
Nov 3, 2022Melissa MullinsAres FC 9L------------
May 20, 2022Liana JojuaAres FC 6W------------
Dec 19, 2021Meruert IbraevaOpen Fighting Championship 15W------------
Jul 24, 2021Andreina ReisOpen Fighting Championship 7W------------
Sep 26, 2020Gorel ZutovaMMA Series 15W------------
Mar 1, 2020Iryana KyselovaMMA Series 1W------------
Dec 1, 2019Darina MazdyukGIT Sech ProW------------
Jul 6, 2019Oksana PavlovskayaGIT Sech ProW------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Apr 18, 2026Melissa CrodenUFC Fight NightL45270000.0000000%
Jun 21, 2025Melissa MullinsUFC Fight NightW00130000.0000000%
Sep 28, 2024Ailin PerezUFC Fight NightL00000000.000110100%
Mar 23, 2024Montse RendonUFC Fight NightW66000000.0000000%
Apr 7, 2023Marie LoiseauAres FC 14W------------
Nov 3, 2022Melissa MullinsAres FC 9L------------
May 20, 2022Liana JojuaAres FC 6W------------
Dec 19, 2021Meruert IbraevaOpen Fighting Championship 15W------------
Jul 24, 2021Andreina ReisOpen Fighting Championship 7W------------
Sep 26, 2020Gorel ZutovaMMA Series 15W------------
Mar 1, 2020Iryana KyselovaMMA Series 1W------------
Dec 1, 2019Darina MazdyukGIT Sech ProW------------
Jul 6, 2019Oksana PavlovskayaGIT Sech ProW------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Apr 18, 2026Melissa CrodenUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Jun 21, 2025Melissa MullinsUFC Fight NightW000000000000
Sep 28, 2024Ailin PerezUFC Fight NightL001100000000
Mar 23, 2024Montse RendonUFC Fight NightW000000000000
Apr 7, 2023Marie LoiseauAres FC 14W------------
Nov 3, 2022Melissa MullinsAres FC 9L------------
May 20, 2022Liana JojuaAres FC 6W------------
Dec 19, 2021Meruert IbraevaOpen Fighting Championship 15W------------
Jul 24, 2021Andreina ReisOpen Fighting Championship 7W------------
Sep 26, 2020Gorel ZutovaMMA Series 15W------------
Mar 1, 2020Iryana KyselovaMMA Series 1W------------
Dec 1, 2019Darina MazdyukGIT Sech ProW------------
Jul 6, 2019Oksana PavlovskayaGIT Sech ProW------------
How the 100-sim board works
Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto

Simcage Pro · n=100

PASSFree preview

54%

Kareckaite

46%

Gatto

PASS. Strike margins are flat. Subs sit on Gatto.

28%

KO/TKO

23%

SUB

49%

DEC

Finish-round histogram

21R1
19R2
11R3
49DEC

Goes the distance 49%

Pace SLpM 10.75, SApM 9.14, TD avg/15 2.52. Model output, not an official result. No betting line. Kareckaite 6-2-1 LT. SLpM 7.28 acc 42% SApM 6.47 def 49% TD 0.75/60% TDdef 81% sub 0. Feb 28 2026 counted as a loss (history sentence and ESPN: Regina Tarin / R. Tarin, UD R3). Widget tags a win and names Malpica Rivera. Opponent strings are not collapsed. Other listed: Caliari W split R3; Barbosa L UD R3; Judice W split R3. Gatto 9-3-2 BR. SLpM 3.47 acc 49% SApM 2.67 def 54% TD 1.77/27% TDdef 58% sub 0.4. Last 5: Barbosa L majority R3; Vidal W strikes R3 0:37; Lipski L split R3; Cortez L UD R3; Eubanks W strikes R3 0:45. n=100: Kareckaite 54, Gatto 46. KO/TKO 28, SUB 23, DEC 49. Hist R1 21 R2 19 R3 11.

ESPN striking, clinch, ground

Ernesta Kareckaite

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Feb 28, 2026Regina TarinUFC Fight NightL15/2467/1946/712727910524945.52%067%37%86%
Jan 11, 2025Nicolle CaliariUFC Fight NightW14/2173/1910/11262669522647.37%069%39%0%
May 4, 2024Dione BarbosaUFC 301L7/1434/1153/31002205315645.45%053%31%43%
Sep 26, 2023Carli JudiceDana White's Contender SeriesW27/41112/2999/920844018440547.27%068%40%100%
Jan 22, 2023Laetitia BlotHexagone MMA 6W------------
Aug 28, 2022Kate BacikHMMA 4W------------
Oct 30, 2021Laetitia BlotHMMA 2D------------
May 3, 2019Klaudia PawickaMMA Bushido 77W------------
Mar 16, 2019Tekle IaganashviliKing of Kings 69W------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Feb 28, 2026Regina TarinUFC Fight NightL5612180000.00012050%
Jan 11, 2025Nicolle CaliariUFC Fight NightW45480000.0000000%
May 4, 2024Dione BarbosaUFC 301L11000030.000110100%
Sep 26, 2023Carli JudiceDana White's Contender SeriesW121624400000.00012050%
Jan 22, 2023Laetitia BlotHexagone MMA 6W------------
Aug 28, 2022Kate BacikHMMA 4W------------
Oct 30, 2021Laetitia BlotHMMA 2D------------
May 3, 2019Klaudia PawickaMMA Bushido 77W------------
Mar 16, 2019Tekle IaganashviliKing of Kings 69W------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Feb 28, 2026Regina TarinUFC Fight NightL000000000000
Jan 11, 2025Nicolle CaliariUFC Fight NightW000000000000
May 4, 2024Dione BarbosaUFC 301L00512311000000
Sep 26, 2023Carli JudiceDana White's Contender SeriesW000000000000
Jan 22, 2023Laetitia BlotHexagone MMA 6W------------
Aug 28, 2022Kate BacikHMMA 4W------------
Oct 30, 2021Laetitia BlotHMMA 2D------------
May 3, 2019Klaudia PawickaMMA Bushido 77W------------
Mar 16, 2019Tekle IaganashviliKing of Kings 69W------------

Melissa Gatto

striking

DateOpponentEventRes.SDBL/ASDHL/ASDLL/ATSLTSASSLSSATSL-TSAKD%BODY%HEAD%LEG
Apr 4, 2026Dione BarbosaUFC Fight NightL7/1213/3810/1264109336758.72%060%35%83%
May 18, 2024Tamires VidalUFC Fight NightW15/186/201/2120163305273.62%080%43%50%
Jul 1, 2023Ariane Lipski da SilvaUFC Fight NightL19/3239/11412/191002018518649.75%068%33%63%
May 7, 2022Tracy CortezUFC 274L3/722/572/54995307351.58%043%41%40%
Dec 18, 2021Sijara EubanksUFC Fight NightW1/18/234/56491173470.33%1100%41%80%
Aug 7, 2021Victoria LeonardoUFC 265W8/1139/8016/19961487012164.86%063%51%84%
Sep 29, 2018Karol RosaNCW------------
Jul 7, 2018Sidy RochaPFC 2D------------
May 5, 2018Joice de AndradeWorld Kombat Challenge 35W------------
Apr 7, 2018Kethylen RothenburgNCW------------
Sep 23, 2017Edna Oliveira AjalaBonito Eco Fight Combat 2D------------
Sep 9, 2017Rafaela ThomaziniSpartacus AcademyW------------
Aug 12, 2017Taynara SilvaPFCW------------
Dec 10, 2016Alexandra AlvesSpartacus AcademyW------------

clinch

DateOpponentEventRes.SCBLSCBASCHLSCHASCLLSCLARVSRTDLTDATDSTK ACC
Apr 4, 2026Dione BarbosaUFC Fight NightL23010010.000312025%
May 18, 2024Tamires VidalUFC Fight NightW12030000.000220100%
Jul 1, 2023Ariane Lipski da SilvaUFC Fight NightL1518030000.0000700%
May 7, 2022Tracy CortezUFC 274L00010010.00036050%
Dec 18, 2021Sijara EubanksUFC Fight NightW11110010.0000100%
Aug 7, 2021Victoria LeonardoUFC 265W48220010.00015020%
Sep 29, 2018Karol RosaNCW------------
Jul 7, 2018Sidy RochaPFC 2D------------
May 5, 2018Joice de AndradeWorld Kombat Challenge 35W------------
Apr 7, 2018Kethylen RothenburgNCW------------
Sep 23, 2017Edna Oliveira AjalaBonito Eco Fight Combat 2D------------
Sep 9, 2017Rafaela ThomaziniSpartacus AcademyW------------
Aug 12, 2017Taynara SilvaPFCW------------
Dec 10, 2016Alexandra AlvesSpartacus AcademyW------------

ground

DateOpponentEventRes.SGBLSGBASGHLSGHASGLLSGLAADADTBADHGADTMADTSSM
Apr 4, 2026Dione BarbosaUFC Fight NightL001100000000
May 18, 2024Tamires VidalUFC Fight NightW007700000001
Jul 1, 2023Ariane Lipski da SilvaUFC Fight NightL000000000000
May 7, 2022Tracy CortezUFC 274L003300000001
Dec 18, 2021Sijara EubanksUFC Fight NightW002300000000
Aug 7, 2021Victoria LeonardoUFC 265W001100000000
Sep 29, 2018Karol RosaNCW------------
Jul 7, 2018Sidy RochaPFC 2D------------
May 5, 2018Joice de AndradeWorld Kombat Challenge 35W------------
Apr 7, 2018Kethylen RothenburgNCW------------
Sep 23, 2017Edna Oliveira AjalaBonito Eco Fight Combat 2D------------
Sep 9, 2017Rafaela ThomaziniSpartacus AcademyW------------
Aug 12, 2017Taynara SilvaPFCW------------
Dec 10, 2016Alexandra AlvesSpartacus AcademyW------------
How the 100-sim board works

n=100 Monte Carlo from public UFC.com / ufcstats / Tapology tape plus this-week news. Model output, not a guarantee, not a ticket we place. Research only.